It's something that happens in racing, and not very often to me, but it does happen. Sometimes you look at the past performances and the winners leap off the page. Other times you use the same methods and angles and can't cash a ticket. Such was the case on Thursday, Friday and Sunday of this final week of the Championship Meet prior to our trip to France. I had the BIG day on Wednesday and just raved to Kim about how it was the epitome of what I love about the thoroughbred racing hobby I have. Then, back-to-back losing days without a single winner. Head off to Tampa, and while I only had four wins I nearly broke even and had a great adventure. Then on Sunday I close the week out with eight straight losses. If you look over "the streak" you'll notice that it's not like I wasn't picking logical horses, in fact of the 21 selections NONE of them went off at odds above 5/1; I had 13 of the 21 at odds of 2/1 or less and three at odds on. Sigh......
Well, enough about that, here are some pics from the weekend in Tampa! You can read the complete journal entry on the Tampa Bay Derby webpage, here.
I always love coming to the races, but still after nearly five full years of retirement I STILL so enjoy being able to do what I had always said I wished I could do while working. Many, MANY a day when I was working and it was the Gulfstream Championship Season I'd look out the windows of my classroom at the beautiful winter day and say, "If I were retired, I'd be at Gulfstream today!" And so many times I've realized that dream. It never gets old, and it's a particularly good day when I not only am on track during the week, enjoying the weather if it's also a big day at the races. Such was the case yesterday which also - as is typical for me - had it's share of interesting stories to tell. Here's how the day turned out. When I had handicapped the racing card I knew it would be a good day to head out to Gulfstream because of the five races I had betting selections four of them ran consecutively early in the card. I didn't have a selection in the opener so I headed out around noon and got there just as they were heading into the gate. I took along the Viking River Cruise guide for trip to France, which is one short week away from today! And that's the first cool story of the day. I have several tellers that I "know" at Gulfstream and are my favorites. But two of them happen to be sisters, twin sisters. I know, right, what a coincidence. Well, it gets even more ironic as one is a blonde and the other a brunette; and one's name is Kim - yes, I'm not making this up - and the other is Karen (close enough to Karrie). So today I went to make my first bet in the second with Kim and she noticed the guide booklet. A conversation ensued and I reminded her that my wife was a twin named Kim, and she said she remembered, so I told her that the four of us were going on a French River cruise in a week and she was so envious. She wanted to see some of the photos in the book and was amazed at the fantastic deal we got ($95 round-trip air). She made me promise to take photos because she wanted to see them so I gave her the web address where all the pics and stories will be posted. Just another cool experience at Gulfstream. So in the second, my first bet of the day, it was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds and up. It was a particularly moderate group with little to like, so it appeared to be a good spot for a first-time starter. Last summer and into the fall trainer Ralph Nicks had been the leading trainer and he often won with his maiden runners. His go-to rider was jockey Tyler Gafflione who is more than holding his own here this winter. The DRF stats showed Nicks to be winning at a solid 21% with his first-time starters. So I made Pomera my top selection. As I headed back up to my seat in "my section" Gabby Gaudet was noting a Formulator stat and I just shook my head. The Daily Racing Form's Formulator tool is a detailed way to use the past performances where nearly everything is "clickable" - but in my opinion you can get way, way over analytical and just get too bogged down in statistics. Such was the case here, I thought, as Gabby was pointing out that Ralph Nicks (a) first time starters, (b) in a dirt sprint, (c) in a maiden claiming event, (d) at Gulfstream, (e) for older runners, yada yada yada - there were so many variables and the sample size was over five years and eleven, ELEVEN races, showed only a 12% win rate. Way too complicated, let's keep it simple Gabby - Nicks wins 21% with FTS! The crowd wasn't buying "the noise" and made Pomera the second choice at a short 3/2. She broke just a step slowly but was immediately gunned to the front and that's where she stayed until they crossed the wire! WHOOO HOOOO!
I had doubled the bet so I was going to be cashing out for $25 to start the day and the week! In the third I thought I had a really good price play when Galatsray was 12/1 in the program. But this race is "Part 1" of an interesting story about playing the races. I've read before, and I believe it's true that you can learn to pick winners at a fairly high rate without a lot of problem if you are willing to invest a little time in this fascinating endeavor. But, the key to success is how you manage your money and making decisions on which selections are worth betting and which are not. And those decisions are very esoteric and requires a "feel" for the game. It is pretty unusual that I vary my bet from what is my initial decision but one factor that often leads me to change the bet is early betting action. If I like a horse and he's taking a lot of early money I often will up the bet. Well, at the first flash of the tote board the odds on my 12/1 shot were 5/2! Even Gabby Gaudet and Ron Nicoletti remarked about how much money he was taking. I was very curious, but here was one of those times where I had "that feeling" that he was a good bet, but not worth upping the ante on. He broke slowly, was near the back and ran sixth at 3/1 odds. Wise move my friend! I thought I had a pretty solid win selection in the fourth where it was a non-winners of two lifetime on the turf and I liked Holy Scat who was first off the claim for Michael Maker. The horse was getting a huge upgrade in riders to top jockey Javier Castellano. The on-air analysts both noted that he was clearly the horse to beat. My other choice in the race was #2 Angora who had weakened on the lead last time out in his first try around two turns. I wrote that if he got loose again, second time long is often a sharp win angle, he could get brave. If there had not been a first-off-the-claim Gulfstream 40% Club play I probably would have made him the pick. He went right to the front and never looked back as Castellano came running late with the 6/5 favorite, but too late, second. But, this became the second part of my story about the "feel" of the game. On my selection sheet I had made Overdramatic an equally big bet with Holy Scat. She was running here in the fifth going a mile in a maiden claimer for three-year-olds. The first thing that caught my eye was that when Overdramatic had debuted she had run a late running sixth, but was only beaten three lengths; the second thing was that the pace that day had been slow so today she should improve with a legitimate pace; then I also noted that the winner that day, Regal Roma, had been my top choice and had an unusual angle. On that day I had noted that Regal Roma had debuted at Laurel with their top rider Trevor McCarthy on board. In her second start she'd run here. But on that day - when she faced Overdramatic - the DRF listed Trevor McCarthy as the rider. He had not ridden a single race at Gulfstream all winter. Would he really come to Florida on a Wednesday afternoon for a maiden? When I was at the races that afternoon with my cousin Karen, I looked in the program and (a) he WAS riding and (b) it was his ONLY mount of the day. Too much of a coincidence. Sure enough Regal Roma won! So the race Overdramatic was exiting had been a KEY race in that there were unusual circumstances working against her winning, coupled with the fact it was her debut and she was closing into mild splits. Add into the mix here that she was trained by Chad Brown and he and Castellano are winning at nearly 40%; and finally that the debut race had been for a $75K tag and today she was dropping significantly to a $35K price level. All of this made her the big bet. But then came the "feel" of the races - she was being hammered early at 1/9 on the board and I thought about the way the previous race had gone where the course might be favoring speed. As I put all the above facts together it "seemed" to me that (a) she was a very, VERY likely winner and (b) Castellano would use that last race experience to his favor. I upped the bet. As they headed into the first turn Overdramatic was pressing the longshot leader. That's it Javier ride the course my friend! THIS is why he's the leading rider, he "gets" these things. As they hit the far turn Overdramatic made her move and glided to the lead. When the rest of the riders began their move he opened up and she ran away by nearly a pole! My second win of the day!
And get this......late money had come in on the other contenders allowing Overdramatic to float all the way up to 4/5 odds, so with my big FIFTY DOLLAR win ticket I'd be cashing for almost $100! I am having a VERY GOOD DAY! When I'd made this bet with Kim I had also made my final bet of the day, which wasn't until the tenth. I headed up to film a last video segment and then posed for a photo of me with my big winning ticket to post on Facebook........
Later that evening I went online to watch the 10th, a turf sprint in starter optional claiming company. My pick was Ramblin and Gamblin who had been my top selection on the day after Christmas when he broke his maiden at a big 4/1 in a turf sprint here. That day, like today, he was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis who makes "the Club" with his turf sprinters. My worry today was that he was moving up to face winners for the first time. That could offset the Club angle. But he looked best and had more than two months off to recover from that big effort. Worthy of the minimum bet at least. I watched the monitor as he stalked the leader into the turn then opened up under Tyler Gafflione - who was winning his third of the day - and ran away easily as the 2/1 favorite. So for the day I would finish 3-for-5 and with a big $50 profit. Truly a sensational day at the races.
Again after a big Saturday I was somewhat disappointed by the racing results on Sunday. But this time I was a "little smarter than the average bear" as Yogi Bear used to say. After completing the recap video (in the middle of the night because I couldn't sleep) I could not stop thinking about the picks and bets for the Sunday card. It just didn't set well with me and I kept thinking that I was way over confident in my selections and betting plans. So the first thing I did this morning was reexamine my analysis and selections. After looking them over with a mind to be more conservative I cut two bets off the sheet and dropped the wagering on two others. I did not win for the day, but I did control the outcome to a more "acceptable" level. I was very tired during the day not only from the full day at the races, but then the short amount of sleep. But by 4 pm we were off to a matinee at the arena of the latest Cirque de Soleil production, "Toruk." This production was billed as much more of a story than a series of acrobatic acts and as a prequel to the movie "Avatar." It was all of that. The sets were simply amazing. We had purchased tickets long ago and gave them to my in-laws as their Christmas gift. We all enjoyed the performance quite a bit and went to Dairy Queen afterwards. Here's a clip of what the production was like.......
Cirque de Soleil: Toruk
Once we returned home I went online to check out the results from today's racing at Gulfstream. My first selection was in the third, a MSW on the turf for 3yo fillies. I went with Chad Brown's first-time starter who'd been listed at 15/1 in the DRF morning line - duh. She was ridden by Javier Castellano (a 37% winning rider for Brown) and the barn is 19% with debut runners. She was well back to the far turn, then closed ground to get within striking position through the turn. Once they turned for home Castellano eased her outside and she came with a flying, determined run to reach the leaders. But the two front runners were stubborn and it was a head-bobbing finish, but Just Talkin had just enough to get up to scored! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
In the 4th I went with Todd Pletcher's Osalia who had disappointed in December, but had run well last season in European Group events. She went off at 7/2 and ran evenly to be 4th. In the fifth I went for an upset with Boss Hawg who had stumbled last time out and two back had been on the turf. His previous two races would win this 2-lifetime sprint. He showed little throughout and was 8th under the line. In the 6th Todd Pletcher's Better Not Blink was the 6/5 favorite. The $850K first time starter was a daughter of graded stakes winning Hard Spun and had John Velazquez up. Shot right to the front but as they spun out of the turn he stopped and was dead last. In the finale I tripled the bet on Super C Me who had disappointed last time out and I thought might be tailing off in form. So when he showed up today at first I was reluctant to make him the choice. But he was dropping back to the bottom claiming level where the last time he'd raced this low he was a dominant winner. I reasoned that even if he was a step or two slower than he'd been against $16K "beaten" runners he'd run away here. I think two things hurt him - one I could not have accounted for and the other I might have considered. First, he broke slowly, so the rider rushed him up to get to the front. Still, not so sure that was that big a problem as through the turn and into the lane he was in hand and clear on the lead. At the furlong pole he was clear, but being ridden; at the 16th pole he was under pressure and faded to be third - it was then I remembered his wins had been at 5 1/2 furlongs. That might have been an important consideration. :)
Still it was a good first week of March, and it marks the next-to-last week of the Championship Meet for me as we are now in full-blown preparation for our French River Cruise in about ten days!
Hard to believe, but yet another B-I-G day of racing while enjoying beautiful Gulfstream Park! Like yesterday, I was joined at the races by my father-in-law Edwin who seemed to really enjoy being at the races yesterday. We drove down and I took him past the Flea Market on Pembroke Road thinking that this would be a quicker drive than down Hallandale Beach Blvd. WOW was I wrong! What is normally a 15 minute slow drive was more like a 30 minute crawl today. But we still were walking into Gulfstream around 11:30, a good half hour before the first post. The crowd and parking lot were a lot, A LOT lighter than last weekend's Fountain of Youth Day. I didn't think it would be that packed, but I did expect a bigger crowd considering there were three graded stakes. In the opener I went with Greg Rules Da who was 5/2 at post time. Made a bold bid on the turn and I thought we had something, but then he stopped on a dime to finish a well-beaten eighth. In the 2nd the top choice was Je Ne Sais Pas. It's hard to explain, but sometimes you "just know" and I had this feeling that this horse was going to be a decisive winner. The French name - because we are headed out to France in less than two weeks - and this feeling, along with Gabby Gaudet's remark that he would be "very difficult to beat" made me strongly consider upping the investment. But I had made the decision before coming out to "stick to the plan." Should have listened to my instincts! He pressed the pace while having a head in front through the turn and then exploded through the stretch to run away with the race as the 4/5 favorite.
Still, I'd doubled the bet and was cashing for nearly $20 to kick off the winning. The second at Tampa looked to be a nice price play for me. Jersey Life had not run on dirt before and was coming off a long layoff. But if she ran to her figures on turf she would be tough to beat, at what I expected to be a fair price. She had a sharp bullet work AND had won off the layoff previously. She was on the lead into the turn, then was confronted by the 6/5 favorite. They dueled to the furlong marker before she gave way, but was a best-of-the-rest second. Next up a claiming route at Aqueduct. In a near mirror image of the Tampa race it came down to a front-runner with a pace presser that collared the leader at the furlong marker. I had Ground Control who was the 2/1 second choice and I collared the leader. But unlike the Tampa race where the front runner gave way, this one dispatched me and I faded to third. Sigh......racing. You gotta love it! It was nearly a half an hour to the next pick, the third at Aqueduct. I've bashed the DRF linemaker many times in the past, and here we are again. For some unknown reason they listed the favorite as a horse who'd been a soundly beaten 7th at odds of 27/1 last time out for an 0-for-12 barn as the favorite and listed my choice, Five Star Rampage at 20/1 in spite of the fact that he had a bullet work for an 18% barn with a rider that was 2-for-3 for the barn. I knew the odds would never be even half the DRF odds. But with ten minutes to post when I looked up at the board even I was amazed that Five Star Rampage was the 1/5 favorite. I watched and when the odds were still at 2/5 with five minutes to post I made the command decision to double my bet which had been a minimum investment. 'Star broke sharply, pressed the pace into the turn and then took off with a quick turn of foot to draw off by nearly a pole!
Twenty-to-one? Uh, yeah. I patted myself on the back for doubling down on the bet and cashed my second ticket by collecting over $15. The 5th at Gulfstream was the first of the graded stakes, the Grade 3 The Very One going a mile and three-eighths on the turf for fillies and mares. Of the six entered, three were trained by Chad Brown. I preferred Dacita who had been a winner over future Breeders' Cup champion Tepin in a Grade 2 at Saratoga last summer. With Javier Castellano up I thought she would be best. One of the other Brown runners quickly went to the front and when the opening quarter was drilled in :22 and change I knew that filly would wilt by the time they hit the far turn. Instead, she was still in front turning for home as Dacita was gobbling up ground. But the wire came up first and I was second best. I was just amazed that (a) the leader had held on and (b) that the final time was a new course record. Just then my phone "quacked" and it was Jeff asking if I was at the races today. I replied, "Duh, is the pope catholic?" He sent back he was "at the races" as well, which I knew he meant he was playing through my Twin Spires account. I asked if he'd seen the just concluded race at Gulfstream where the front runner held on, and he replied that he had and in fact had doubled his $10 investment on THE WINNER! Oh my, he was cashing for nearly $100! (note in the video recap I'd seen the board wrong and thought the horse paid $18! - still a great score for my boy!). Very impressed and oh-so-proud of my son the handicapper! Next up for me was the opener at Oaklawn. As I walked into the simulcast area they had just crossed the finish line and as the slow-motion replay of the final 16th played I looked for my pick, #9. Not even in the first flight, a distant sixth as the 6/5 favorite. Hmmmmm. The sixth at Gulfstream was a maiden sprint for sophomores, and yes there was a Pletcher runner. The bet, right? No. WHAT???? My reasoning was that if memory serves me correctly, late in the meet you can still win with Pletcher maidens, but if they are just now debuting you have to wonder why they didn't debut in January or February when there were plenty of these kind of races. He dominates those races, but late in the meet we are getting into the second and third tier of his runners. I passed on his colt and went with Travis County from the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. This colt was a big $850K Keeneland purchase and you know they had to have high hopes for him. He was a fair 4/1 and was mid-pack into the far turn. Simply ran evenly to the wire to finish fifth. The Pletcher colt? At the back of the pack - well, at least I was half right in my handicapping analysis! As the field had been approaching the gate here, they were approaching the gate for the opener at the Fair Grounds. I was VERY surprised that I was able to get into the Twin Spires website to watch the race live because for two years now that site is blocked and you are redirected to the Xpress Bet website (ironically later in the day this DID happen and I could not get back into Twin Spires!). I wrote in my analysis of the race that maiden $12,500K claimers were typically NOT where you'd find reliable selections, but here was the exception. To me Lady Areydne jumped off the page. She had debuted in $15K company and was a best-of-the-rest second finishing four clear of the other eight fillies in spite of being three wide. She had earned a Beyer of 52, which is not fast by any stretch of the imagination, but it was CLEARLY the best figure of this lowly bunch. Trainer Roger Bruggermann had all the right stats for this kind of runner and she looked to be odds on. But as I watched the race, there was another runner that the crowd had pounded down to 3/5 favoritism allowing Lady Areydne to float all the way up to 9/5. They spun out of the far turn head-to-head and began a stretch-long duel....one head up and one head down, neither giving an inch until inside the final 16th Lady Areydne's class came through and she edged clear! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
The $5.60 payoff turned into a $42 payday for me because I had tripled the bet! As this is the first photo of this journal entry of me, note the Gulfstream polo shirt I'm wearing. It's new; purchased it Friday before Ed & I left as a replacement for the "I'm on fire" polo that was ruined last Saturday :) At this point this was the "score of the day," but that was quickly surpassed. I cashed my ticket and filmed the video clip for the win and headed back up to our seats to watch the 7th. The conditions of the race read, "....for four-year-olds and up which have never won four races, OR have not won a race since September 5, 2015....." When ever I see a very specific date like that the first thing I do is scan through the past performances to see who is this race specifically written for. Typically you'll find a couple of horses who's last win is close to the cut-off date, but every once in a while you find that hidden gem. Last January, a horse by the name of Karibu Gardens had been a perfect match for such a condition......
That led to a great payday so I'm always looking for something similar. And as I scanned down through the entries for today's 7th, there it was. Check out the past performances for World Approval below - he'd last won on September 5th, 2015 - Coincidence? I THINK NOT! As I was making my way to the seats analyst Gabby Gaudet (who always has an eye for price plays) was remarking that there had been a significant scratch of a horse who'd been the obvious pace setter here, so now all of the runners who would come from off the pace would probably have less pace to run into. I flipped to my sheet, where I'd pasted in a clip of part of World Approval's pp's and wondered if jockey Julian Leparoux - who rarely rides well for me - would be able to capitalize on this. It wasn't clear to me as I looked at it, but still, the exact same date was too good to overlooks. The gates sprung open and immediately World Approval was in front. Oh this is good! As they hit the far turn and he was clear on the lead announcer Larry Colmus called that the first half mile had gone in :48 and change - very slow. I broke into a big smile because I knew, I KNEW, I had just made a great selection! World Approval opened up through the stretch and won going away! And the best part, check the price! OH MY!
With my triple investment I was cashing for over $75! Now THAT is the "score of the day!" WHOOOOOOO HOOOOOOO! The eighth was a claiming event and I was a distant 8th when All Over It stopped on the turn. But I came right back to win the 7th at Tampa for my fifth winner on the day in a starter handicap going 9 1/2 furlongs on the turf. All For Us was the lone starter in the field with a win at a marathon distance. And he was coming off a sharp effort, a win over the course. A best of 44 bullet work for trainer Tom Proctor made the Glen Hills Farm runner my top choice. Down the backside he was fourth but at least half a dozen lengths behind the even money favorite. He caught him, inhaled him, and blew by him five wide into the lane to open up a short lead. A runner came flying up the rail and they matched strides through the final two hundred yards.....PHOTO FINISH! If you'd asked me at that instant after watching it live I would have said that while it's possible I won, I would guess I'd been nipped on the wire. But immediately the camera swung to #8-All For Us. Hmmmm, a little premature I thought, but good for me. Then they showed the slow-motion replay from the press-box angle. I'm not so sure they got the wrong horse there I thought. Then they showed the slow-motion close-up view from the rail. Now I'm even more uncertain that they have the winner. But again, the camera swung to the #8 trotting back and almost immediately the prices came up! Check out the official photo:
The generous $9.20 payoff meant I'd cash for almost $25 on the minimum bet. Next on my sheet was a stakes from Aqueduct, the Heavenly Prize Invitational. House Rules was much the class of the field dropping out of seven straight graded stakes, two of which she'd won. The one horse I did NOT like was Mei Ling from the Todd Pletcher barn. She'd been the lone speed and MUCH the class of a Laurel listed stakes last time out. She was a prime-time play for me that day at 2/5 and she faded badly through the lane. She could never beat these kind, especially in her current form; and especially not House Rules who I made my "best" at Aqueduct. Right away I knew there was a problem. House Rules usually presses the pace up close and she was near the back through the first turn. She never improved and yes, you guessed it, Mei Ling wired the field and paid $9.60. Sigh.... The ninth at Gulfstream was an entry level allowance going 9 1/2 furlongs on the turf and while it's always difficult to go from a maiden win to a victory over winners, last time out Bokeelia Island had been monstrously impressive. When Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey teams with top jockey Javier Castellano they have won at a huge 56% over the last two years. They'd won for me last time and I thought this was a perfect spot. She lagged back in the rear, but the fractions were fast enough to set up her big late kick. Seemed to me Castellano waited at least a full 1/8th of a mile too long to get her in gear - a late running 4th at 5/2 odds. Nearly simultaneously the 2nd at Santa Anita was going off and I watched on the Santa Anita live feed (they are a sister track to Gulfstream and so their site is NOT blocked!). London Legacy looked like an easy winner on paper and so she was at 3/2 odds.....my 6th victory of the day. Ed asked how long we'd stay and I told him I wanted to see my "BET of the Day," Songbird run in the feature at Santa Anita which was about 1 1/2 hours away so we agreed to play through the 12th here - the final graded event - then take off. At Oaklawn Alabama Tide was the 3/2 chalk in a 2-lifetime allowance but was a non-threatening third. But in the sixth at Oaklawn, my next selection, I thought I had a solid pick. Regally Ready had won the 2011 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, but over the last four years he'd gone on to win not only turf route stakes & allowance races, but also stakes and allowance events on the main track. Today we were on the dirt and he laid over the field on class. The only question was he was coming off a sharp win off a layoff and I worried he'd regress today. I was encouraged when the DRF analyst picked him - she rarely goes for the chalk - but still I wavered about going all in with the planned prime time investment. Finally with ten minutes to post I decided that I was going to stick with the plan. Immediately I felt good as jockey Corey Nakatani had him pressing the leader while saving ground and it was very obvious that he was sitting on a TON of horse while the other jockeys were already beginning to ask for more. As they moved into the far turn Regally Ready glided to the front and then one of the best things you can see as a bettor when watching your horse run - the rider started looking over first one shoulder, then the other, all the while with a firm hold of the horse while edging clear of the field. The rest of the field was in a full-out drive as they turned for home but Nakatani sat chilly to the furlong pole then let it out a notch and kissed the field good-bye!
I was content with the $3.60 payoff, he was at least that much better than the field on paper. My prime time ticket would get me almost $40 back on my seventh winner of the day. At Tampa it was another starter handicap at the same 9 1/2 furlong distance. I wrote that one of two things would happen - either Daddy's Boo would get an easy lead and gallop all the way around, or he'd be pressured and cave at the top of the lane. Right to the front and when the half mile was posted in :50.4 a guy standing next to me looked at me and said, "He's not even asking this horse to run!" I replied, "They're just walking!" We both smiled and knew we were in. Under a hand ride turning for home and then he asked for a little more for the sprint to the wire - and got nothing. He was all out to hold off the field, and almost did, but was caught inside the final 100 yards, second. Wow. I went back and forth about betting the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct, their version of the Fountain of Youth - the final prep for the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, a Kentucky Derby prep. I had picked Mo Power to upset the field but he'd scratched. I wanted to bet Shagaf who is a stablemate to the unbeaten Mohaymen, as he looked very talented. But finally I decided it was too wide open to back the chalk. One of the DRF video analysts had picked the lone MAIDEN in the field, that's how wide open it was. So I passed. As they hit the far turn the 15/1 maiden was clear on the lead. Some guy kept waving a bunch of dollar bills in front of me and I was beginning to get irritated as I wanted to watch the race until I realized it was Ed! I had passed a Gulfstream 3yo maiden race, yes with a Pletcher runner, but I thought he was like the one from earlier in the day. But he'd won at 9/2 and Ed had cashed for nearly $25! Good for him, it made him a winner on the day. Back to Aqueduct where Shagaf was JUST up to beat the maiden front-runner. Well, I would have won, but I was content that I had passed because he was anything but a clear winner. The featured Grade 2 Gulfstream Handicap was next with three Pletcher entries. I thought Itsaknockout would run huge, but he was flat as a pancake. Ed had Standford who was 5/2. I'd told him I thought it was a good bet. He got a short lead in mid-stretch and then was caught by the other Pletcher who was 9/1. Tough luck for my father-in-law. The final live race was the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida and I really liked Chad Brown's Mr. Maybe. Castellano landed there over all the others, many of whom he'd ridden before. Like the last turf race, waited too long and had too much ground to make up - a belated third. We were going to watch the Songbird race inside but they were moving into the gate as the Mac Diarmida was finishing. So I had it up on my phone.
Songbird is, in my opinion, the best three-year-old in the country, period. I think she'd be a convincing winner of the Kentucky Derby but her connections are adamant about running in the Oaks. Which makes some sense because to get into the Derby you have to have enough points; and those points would require her to face the boys before the Derby. Today there had been quite a bit written about her running here in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel for only $100,000. She was coming off of a Grade 2 win by over six lengths, while under a hand ride. And obviously the Santa Anita Oaks on April 9th is her target as the final prep for the Kentucky Oaks. What's the point of running here? Well, because trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has a plan and that includes racing a month before the SA Oaks and then a month before the Kentucky Oaks. He could care less about the competition. I knew she'd pay next to nothing and that was confirmed when she was listed in the program at 1/9 - oh my! Now this was my dilemma. I KNOW it's not a "good bet" to go all in on a 1/9 runner. I mean if I risk $100 I'd get back at best $110, maybe only $105. Was I willing to risk the entire day's chance at a winning afternoon on that? I had gone back and forth since Thursday about how to handle this. Finally I decided two things. First, I asked myself, was I as confident she'd win as I was when I bet Untapable in the 2014 Kentucky Oaks (the biggest bet I've ever made - $200)? No, I could honestly answer. She should win - but it's a prep race and who knows what could happen. Secondly, I reasoned that I do not and have never bet based on price so much as to use the bet as a statement of my confidence level. Ok then, as we went to the races I knew she'd be a "BET of the Day" at least, which for me is a $50 bet. About mid-way through the day I decided to use a tactic I've used previously.....I knew I'd want to bet at least $50 to win, so I decided I'd get that ticket a couple hours early and see how that "settled" with me. If I was willing to go in for a full $100, then I'd get a second ticket about an hour later. Then when it was time to actually bet the race I could either be content with my early bets or get one more for $50. As they approached the gate I showed Ed the odds board on the live video feed. No surprise that Songbird was 1/9, but the "second choice" on the board was 40/1! WOW. I told him the story of how I'd bet a stakes race at the Fair Grounds where there were six horses and with two minutes there was $0 bet on the other five horses while the favorite was obviously 1/9. They loaded into the gate and the odds on the other eight fillies were: 13/1, 40/1, 30/1, 90/1, 90/1, 25/1, 45/1, and 20/1. WOW. Songbird went right to the front, but it appeared to me that through the first turn that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith had been having to ask her to run some to get the lead. The pressing longshot on the outside stuck with her half way down the backside, and while the fraction was not sizzling, it certainly was not an easy pace as she eased clear into the turn. Had the initial part of the race taken too much out of her? I had this passing vision of her clear in the lead and nailed on the wire making national headlines. But then I could see as she moved through the turn - with each stride she was getting farther and farther away from the field who were already being hard ridden while Smith sat motionless. He continued to let her lope along at an even clip until they got to the furlong pole then he motored her down. The length of the stretch Smith watched the jumbotron in the infield to make sure there was no danger and while the final margin was diminished, she was jogging and STILL won by nearly four open lengths. I had asked Ed to film my final installment for the recap video in the paddock and this is where I finally revealed my final bet......
She was well worth the bet - three full $50 WIN tickets (see above); I got a big thrill out of having that much on her and being right, so the fact that I only made a profit of $7.50 was inconsequential :) We headed for home and I asked Ed if he'd made money on the day. I was really happy he'd had two good days and when he said "Yes," I was even happier he'd had two winning days. I had yet to add up my numbers and I had six races to go with tickets in my pocket still, but I thought I would probably come out about even or just a bit ahead. Once we got home I watched the final set of races. First up was the feature from Oaklawn, the Hot Springs going six furlongs. I had picked Ivan Fallunovalot who had won the prep for this as my choice. But he scratched. Hmmmm. I thought about going with my second choice and when I saw the DRF gal picked him I was inclined to do that. So I looked up the local Oaklawn handicapper's picks - he too liked my second choice. I liked the comment made in the DRF that Subtle Indian had run the highest Beyer figure in two years at Oaklawn last time for six furlongs. He had the rail and was the speed. Sure enough, when I clicked on the replay he went right to the front, set sensational fractions and when the late runners came he had plenty left to win - my NINTH winner today.
While only 3/5, still it was another $17 to add to my winnings. Lost the other five (one at 6/5 when second; one at 3/5 when 6th), but it didn't matter, it had been a G-R-E-A-T day! I added up the numbers for the day and was exceptionally pleased:
Well done Mr. Mark! Today was the last Saturday that I'll be here during the Championship Meet. Next weekend I'll be in Tampa for the Tampa Bay Derby Festival Day; then the following two weekends we'll be on the French River Cruise. And the weekend following our return will be Closing Weekend - and Florida Derby Day.
AND THEY'RE OFF Kick Off Final Month Of Gulfstream
Before we get to the first day of racing in the final month of the Championship Season, just a moment to reflect on (a) the month of February and (b) the first three months of the meet. I've always said that THIS is my favorite time of the year - the weather is superb (it's why we live in Florida), and the racing is spectacular. On any given weekday you can see the best trainers, jockeys, and often horses in thoroughbred racing right here at our local racing venue. And so it is the meet that I point for with my handicapping as I always handicap every live racing card - regardless of what is going on in my personal life....that included when I was working and now with my traveling. But there is one thing about Gulfstream that most people who know I am a racing enthusiast don't really grasp, and that is just how hard it is to win at Gulfstream. Here you have horses, trainers, and jockeys who spend the other nine months of the year racing all over the country (predominantly east of the Rocky Mountains), and they come together for this brief span of time to compete against each other. In addition, the vast majority of the horses when they make their first start here they are not only coming from a different track - having faced different runners - but they typically have been away from the races for a while. AND they often get different riders than they typically have at their "home" tracks. So there are many, many different variables. That doesn't even account for the centerpiece of racing here at Gulfstream, the newly-turned three-year-olds who's form is erratic (good and bad!). Many of the races feature debuting sophomores (or two-year-olds in December) and as the meet gets into January and February there are many races with debuting 3yo runners facing ones with one or two races under their belts. So it comes as no surprise that my numbers for the winter are always just a click below what my overall stats reflect. I typically will win my fair share - around 30%+ - but it's difficult to make money, or even hit the targeted $1.91 ROI for ever $2 invested. Going back to 2009 here are my figures:
2009: 30.3% WINS / $1.64 ROI
2010: 30.8% WINS / $1.91 ROI
2011: 31.1% WINS / $1.86 ROI
2012: 29.5% WINS / $1.70 ROI
2013: 31.4% WINS / $1.63 ROI
2014: 34.0% WINS / $1.91 ROI
2015: 32.1% WINS / $1.72 ROI
But - and granted we still have the final three weeks of the meet to go (taking off the week we are in France) - check out the sensational month of February stats and then the meet through the first three months below:
It is THE BEST winter I've ever had and I am very proud of that! And so, after a dark day on Wednesday we began the month of March with a full card of eleven races on Thursday March 3rd. In the opener, a MSW for 3yo runners I liked Unintimidated who had been a best-of-the-rest second in his most recent in spite of having trouble. I had a hard time deciding between he and Good Genes because that colt had a best-of-88 bullet work and while he'd run poorly in his most recent, he'd left the gate as the 4/5 favorite. He ran to his works and wired the field at 2/1 while I was an even fourth. In the third race I again faced a handicapping dilemma where Blame Dixie appeared the best horse, but was coming out of the Eddie Kenneally barn which was a meager 2-for-32 at the meet. Hmmmm. Blame Dixie was first off the claim, a 27% winning angle for this outfit. With top rider Javier Castellano signed on that sealed the deal and I made him the top choice. If he ran to either his last figure or his three-back figure we would be much the best. He did - right to the front......
LONG GONE! I had tripled the bet so the even money odds meant I'd be cashing for a cool $30 to start the month. In the 6th I went with Madroos for Michael Maker on the turf for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. The nw2L condition meant we did not have the most consistent of runners and he looked solid as they hit the turn, pressing the leader in second. But when the real running started he continued on evenly to the wire, finishing fourth. In the eight I had a genuine price play. It was one of those "great handicapping, no payoff" selections. Love Years went out for the second leading trainer Jorge Navarro and was a double GP 40% Club play (class dropping and turning back in distance). I thought he was a square price at 7/2 in the program for this 7 1/2 furlong maiden claiming turf event. He was mid-pack and made a big move into the turn. But the 5/1 front runner - who had set very fast fractions - never stopped and blew the field away with an effort that came from out of the blue. I was much the best-of-the-rest, but I don't bet to place. Then, my BET of the DAY was up in the 10th. And it was by far the best story of the day. The tenth was an 8 1/2 furlong dirt route for Optional-Allowance runners with a non-winners-of-two-other-than condition. This is the middle allowance condition that I find the easier to handicap because you want to find a runner who might have stakes experience, has already won his entry level allowance, and has not had too many tries - without success - at this nw2x level. Top trainer Todd Pletcher had two in here - check out their past performances:
Doesn't it seem obvious? Tennessee has had one stakes attempt, and while you could forgive it because it was on the turf, he was a non-threatening 5th (and at GPW as well). He'd had four allowance tries and had only a single win, that coming on the turf. Meanwhile Savoy Stomp had been sent straight into graded company off his MSW win, then was a good third in his allowance try here - what the clip doesn't show was he ran into Bluegrass Singer that day who went on to be a front runner in all three of the major Florida Derby preps. Then 'Stomp went to the Gr 3 LeComte at the Fair Grounds. A good win in allowance company followed. Another stakes try and then fourth most recently. That fourth came behind a runner that has now won five of his last seven including a $60K starter stakes in his most recent. Note Savoy Stomp was coming off a two month break and broke poorly as well. With top jockey Javier Castellano riding, he seemed to be clearly the better of the two Pletcher runners. Tennessee also had the problem that he was a front-runner and almost certainly would face early pace pressure. To me it just leaped off the page and I made Savoy Stomp a prime time play. When I opened the replays to watch I was amazed......Tennessee was the 7/5 post time favorite and Savoy Stomp was the THIRD CHOICE at 5/2! What the ????!!!!????? Tennessee and a stretch-out sprinter went at it early and set swift fractions for 8 1/2 furlongs: :23 flat for the opening quarter and a very quick :46 even for the first half mile. Savoy Stomp was in fifth, well back nearly half a dozen off the dueling leaders and not even in the TV picture. But as they began to approach the far turn I could see the chicklet for #3 making up ground quickly. Savoy Stomp appeared on the screen and two things were obvious to me: (1) he was FLYING and even better, (2) Castellano was still sitting chilly as he was doing it all on his own. Oh I am loving this - I AM going to win! He blew right on by and ran away while Tennessee faded to fifth, beaten some fifteen lengths - yeah, duh!
The $7.00 payoff was just amazing to me. With my prime time investment I would collect a big payoff of $70 and finish 2-for-5 on the day with a big $30 profit on the day! WHOOO HOOO to the start of March!
