Kick Off Final Month Of Gulfstream
Before we get to the first day of racing in the final month of the Championship Season, just a moment to reflect on (a) the month of February and (b) the first three months of the meet. I've always said that THIS is my favorite time of the year - the weather is superb (it's why we live in Florida), and the racing is spectacular. On any given weekday you can see the best trainers, jockeys, and often horses in thoroughbred racing right here at our local racing venue. And so it is the meet that I point for with my handicapping as I always handicap every live racing card - regardless of what is going on in my personal life....that included when I was working and now with my traveling. But there is one thing about Gulfstream that most people who know I am a racing enthusiast don't really grasp, and that is just how hard it is to win at Gulfstream. Here you have horses, trainers, and jockeys who spend the other nine months of the year racing all over the country (predominantly east of the Rocky Mountains), and they come together for this brief span of time to compete against each other. In addition, the vast majority of the horses when they make their first start here they are not only coming from a different track - having faced different runners - but they typically have been away from the races for a while. AND they often get different riders than they typically have at their "home" tracks. So there are many, many different variables. That doesn't even account for the centerpiece of racing here at Gulfstream, the newly-turned three-year-olds who's form is erratic (good and bad!). Many of the races feature debuting sophomores (or two-year-olds in December) and as the meet gets into January and February there are many races with debuting 3yo runners facing ones with one or two races under their belts. So it comes as no surprise that my numbers for the winter are always just a click below what my overall stats reflect. I typically will win my fair share - around 30%+ - but it's difficult to make money, or even hit the targeted $1.91 ROI for ever $2 invested. Going back to 2009 here are my figures:
2009: 30.3% WINS / $1.64 ROI
2010: 30.8% WINS / $1.91 ROI
2011: 31.1% WINS / $1.86 ROI
2012: 29.5% WINS / $1.70 ROI
2013: 31.4% WINS / $1.63 ROI
2014: 34.0% WINS / $1.91 ROI
2015: 32.1% WINS / $1.72 ROI
But - and granted we still have the final three weeks of the meet to go (taking off the week we are in France) - check out the sensational month of February stats and then the meet through the first three months below:
It is THE BEST winter I've ever had and I am very proud of that! And so, after a dark day on Wednesday we began the month of March with a full card of eleven races on Thursday March 3rd. In the opener, a MSW for 3yo runners I liked Unintimidated who had been a best-of-the-rest second in his most recent in spite of having trouble. I had a hard time deciding between he and Good Genes because that colt had a best-of-88 bullet work and while he'd run poorly in his most recent, he'd left the gate as the 4/5 favorite. He ran to his works and wired the field at 2/1 while I was an even fourth. In the third race I again faced a handicapping dilemma where Blame Dixie appeared the best horse, but was coming out of the Eddie Kenneally barn which was a meager 2-for-32 at the meet. Hmmmm. Blame Dixie was first off the claim, a 27% winning angle for this outfit. With top rider Javier Castellano signed on that sealed the deal and I made him the top choice. If he ran to either his last figure or his three-back figure we would be much the best. He did - right to the front......
LONG GONE! I had tripled the bet so the even money odds meant I'd be cashing for a cool $30 to start the month. In the 6th I went with Madroos for Michael Maker on the turf for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. The nw2L condition meant we did not have the most consistent of runners and he looked solid as they hit the turn, pressing the leader in second. But when the real running started he continued on evenly to the wire, finishing fourth. In the eight I had a genuine price play. It was one of those "great handicapping, no payoff" selections. Love Years went out for the second leading trainer Jorge Navarro and was a double GP 40% Club play (class dropping and turning back in distance). I thought he was a square price at 7/2 in the program for this 7 1/2 furlong maiden claiming turf event. He was mid-pack and made a big move into the turn. But the 5/1 front runner - who had set very fast fractions - never stopped and blew the field away with an effort that came from out of the blue. I was much the best-of-the-rest, but I don't bet to place. Then, my BET of the DAY was up in the 10th. And it was by far the best story of the day. The tenth was an 8 1/2 furlong dirt route for Optional-Allowance runners with a non-winners-of-two-other-than condition. This is the middle allowance condition that I find the easier to handicap because you want to find a runner who might have stakes experience, has already won his entry level allowance, and has not had too many tries - without success - at this nw2x level. Top trainer Todd Pletcher had two in here - check out their past performances:
Doesn't it seem obvious? Tennessee has had one stakes attempt, and while you could forgive it because it was on the turf, he was a non-threatening 5th (and at GPW as well). He'd had four allowance tries and had only a single win, that coming on the turf. Meanwhile Savoy Stomp had been sent straight into graded company off his MSW win, then was a good third in his allowance try here - what the clip doesn't show was he ran into Bluegrass Singer that day who went on to be a front runner in all three of the major Florida Derby preps. Then 'Stomp went to the Gr 3 LeComte at the Fair Grounds. A good win in allowance company followed. Another stakes try and then fourth most recently. That fourth came behind a runner that has now won five of his last seven including a $60K starter stakes in his most recent. Note Savoy Stomp was coming off a two month break and broke poorly as well. With top jockey Javier Castellano riding, he seemed to be clearly the better of the two Pletcher runners. Tennessee also had the problem that he was a front-runner and almost certainly would face early pace pressure. To me it just leaped off the page and I made Savoy Stomp a prime time play. When I opened the replays to watch I was amazed......Tennessee was the 7/5 post time favorite and Savoy Stomp was the THIRD CHOICE at 5/2! What the ????!!!!????? Tennessee and a stretch-out sprinter went at it early and set swift fractions for 8 1/2 furlongs: :23 flat for the opening quarter and a very quick :46 even for the first half mile. Savoy Stomp was in fifth, well back nearly half a dozen off the dueling leaders and not even in the TV picture. But as they began to approach the far turn I could see the chicklet for #3 making up ground quickly. Savoy Stomp appeared on the screen and two things were obvious to me: (1) he was FLYING and even better, (2) Castellano was still sitting chilly as he was doing it all on his own. Oh I am loving this - I AM going to win! He blew right on by and ran away while Tennessee faded to fifth, beaten some fifteen lengths - yeah, duh!
The $7.00 payoff was just amazing to me. With my prime time investment I would collect a big payoff of $70 and finish 2-for-5 on the day with a big $30 profit on the day! WHOOO HOOO to the start of March!
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