What A SENSATIONAL Day!
I always love coming to the races, but still after nearly five full years of retirement I STILL so enjoy being able to do what I had always said I wished I could do while working. Many, MANY a day when I was working and it was the Gulfstream Championship Season I'd look out the windows of my classroom at the beautiful winter day and say, "If I were retired, I'd be at Gulfstream today!" And so many times I've realized that dream. It never gets old, and it's a particularly good day when I not only am on track during the week, enjoying the weather if it's also a big day at the races. Such was the case yesterday which also - as is typical for me - had it's share of interesting stories to tell. Here's how the day turned out. When I had handicapped the racing card I knew it would be a good day to head out to Gulfstream because of the five races I had betting selections four of them ran consecutively early in the card. I didn't have a selection in the opener so I headed out around noon and got there just as they were heading into the gate. I took along the Viking River Cruise guide for trip to France, which is one short week away from today! And that's the first cool story of the day. I have several tellers that I "know" at Gulfstream and are my favorites. But two of them happen to be sisters, twin sisters. I know, right, what a coincidence. Well, it gets even more ironic as one is a blonde and the other a brunette; and one's name is Kim - yes, I'm not making this up - and the other is Karen (close enough to Karrie). So today I went to make my first bet in the second with Kim and she noticed the guide booklet. A conversation ensued and I reminded her that my wife was a twin named Kim, and she said she remembered, so I told her that the four of us were going on a French River cruise in a week and she was so envious. She wanted to see some of the photos in the book and was amazed at the fantastic deal we got ($95 round-trip air). She made me promise to take photos because she wanted to see them so I gave her the web address where all the pics and stories will be posted. Just another cool experience at Gulfstream. So in the second, my first bet of the day, it was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds and up. It was a particularly moderate group with little to like, so it appeared to be a good spot for a first-time starter. Last summer and into the fall trainer Ralph Nicks had been the leading trainer and he often won with his maiden runners. His go-to rider was jockey Tyler Gafflione who is more than holding his own here this winter. The DRF stats showed Nicks to be winning at a solid 21% with his first-time starters. So I made Pomera my top selection. As I headed back up to my seat in "my section" Gabby Gaudet was noting a Formulator stat and I just shook my head. The Daily Racing Form's Formulator tool is a detailed way to use the past performances where nearly everything is "clickable" - but in my opinion you can get way, way over analytical and just get too bogged down in statistics. Such was the case here, I thought, as Gabby was pointing out that Ralph Nicks (a) first time starters, (b) in a dirt sprint, (c) in a maiden claiming event, (d) at Gulfstream, (e) for older runners, yada yada yada - there were so many variables and the sample size was over five years and eleven, ELEVEN races, showed only a 12% win rate. Way too complicated, let's keep it simple Gabby - Nicks wins 21% with FTS! The crowd wasn't buying "the noise" and made Pomera the second choice at a short 3/2. She broke just a step slowly but was immediately gunned to the front and that's where she stayed until they crossed the wire! WHOOO HOOOO!
I had doubled the bet so I was going to be cashing out for $25 to start the day and the week! In the third I thought I had a really good price play when Galatsray was 12/1 in the program. But this race is "Part 1" of an interesting story about playing the races. I've read before, and I believe it's true that you can learn to pick winners at a fairly high rate without a lot of problem if you are willing to invest a little time in this fascinating endeavor. But, the key to success is how you manage your money and making decisions on which selections are worth betting and which are not. And those decisions are very esoteric and requires a "feel" for the game. It is pretty unusual that I vary my bet from what is my initial decision but one factor that often leads me to change the bet is early betting action. If I like a horse and he's taking a lot of early money I often will up the bet. Well, at the first flash of the tote board the odds on my 12/1 shot were 5/2! Even Gabby Gaudet and Ron Nicoletti remarked about how much money he was taking. I was very curious, but here was one of those times where I had "that feeling" that he was a good bet, but not worth upping the ante on. He broke slowly, was near the back and ran sixth at 3/1 odds. Wise move my friend! I thought I had a pretty solid win selection in the fourth where it was a non-winners of two lifetime on the turf and I liked Holy Scat who was first off the claim for Michael Maker. The horse was getting a huge upgrade in riders to top jockey Javier Castellano. The on-air analysts both noted that he was clearly the horse to beat. My other choice in the race was #2 Angora who had weakened on the lead last time out in his first try around two turns. I wrote that if he got loose again, second time long is often a sharp win angle, he could get brave. If there had not been a first-off-the-claim Gulfstream 40% Club play I probably would have made him the pick. He went right to the front and never looked back as Castellano came running late with the 6/5 favorite, but too late, second. But, this became the second part of my story about the "feel" of the game. On my selection sheet I had made Overdramatic an equally big bet with Holy Scat. She was running here in the fifth going a mile in a maiden claimer for three-year-olds. The first thing that caught my eye was that when Overdramatic had debuted she had run a late running sixth, but was only beaten three lengths; the second thing was that the pace that day had been slow so today she should improve with a legitimate pace; then I also noted that the winner that day, Regal Roma, had been my top choice and had an unusual angle. On that day I had noted that Regal Roma had debuted at Laurel with their top rider Trevor McCarthy on board. In her second start she'd run here. But on that day - when she faced Overdramatic - the DRF listed Trevor McCarthy as the rider. He had not ridden a single race at Gulfstream all winter. Would he really come to Florida on a Wednesday afternoon for a maiden? When I was at the races that afternoon with my cousin Karen, I looked in the program and (a) he WAS riding and (b) it was his ONLY mount of the day. Too much of a coincidence. Sure enough Regal Roma won! So the race Overdramatic was exiting had been a KEY race in that there were unusual circumstances working against her winning, coupled with the fact it was her debut and she was closing into mild splits. Add into the mix here that she was trained by Chad Brown and he and Castellano are winning at nearly 40%; and finally that the debut race had been for a $75K tag and today she was dropping significantly to a $35K price level. All of this made her the big bet. But then came the "feel" of the races - she was being hammered early at 1/9 on the board and I thought about the way the previous race had gone where the course might be favoring speed. As I put all the above facts together it "seemed" to me that (a) she was a very, VERY likely winner and (b) Castellano would use that last race experience to his favor. I upped the bet. As they headed into the first turn Overdramatic was pressing the longshot leader. That's it Javier ride the course my friend! THIS is why he's the leading rider, he "gets" these things. As they hit the far turn Overdramatic made her move and glided to the lead. When the rest of the riders began their move he opened up and she ran away by nearly a pole! My second win of the day!
And get this......late money had come in on the other contenders allowing Overdramatic to float all the way up to 4/5 odds, so with my big FIFTY DOLLAR win ticket I'd be cashing for almost $100! I am having a VERY GOOD DAY! When I'd made this bet with Kim I had also made my final bet of the day, which wasn't until the tenth. I headed up to film a last video segment and then posed for a photo of me with my big winning ticket to post on Facebook........
Later that evening I went online to watch the 10th, a turf sprint in starter optional claiming company. My pick was Ramblin and Gamblin who had been my top selection on the day after Christmas when he broke his maiden at a big 4/1 in a turf sprint here. That day, like today, he was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis who makes "the Club" with his turf sprinters. My worry today was that he was moving up to face winners for the first time. That could offset the Club angle. But he looked best and had more than two months off to recover from that big effort. Worthy of the minimum bet at least. I watched the monitor as he stalked the leader into the turn then opened up under Tyler Gafflione - who was winning his third of the day - and ran away easily as the 2/1 favorite. So for the day I would finish 3-for-5 and with a big $50 profit. Truly a sensational day at the races.
March 9th Highlights
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