On Monday we drove from Columbus to Erie, Pa. to spend time with the Pennsylvania family. The weather forecast was for icy conditions on the roads and we delayed our departure for a couple of hours to try and miss the storm, which luckily we did. The next morning I enjoyed my cup of coffee on the deck of my in-laws beautiful home overlooking Lake Erie - one of the "must dos" of the trip! I handicapped the Wednesday card and was able to watch the replays that afternoon from my sister-in-law's home. On the afternoon's card I only found four races that seemed worthy of an investment. The fourth race was an entry level one-turn mile for 2yo fillies. Veija Luna was my top pick. She'd won her maiden race over this track going seven furlongs and her connections had thought enough of her to send her to Santa Anita to try the Grade 1 Chandelier where she ran into the juvenile champion Songbird. Still she was a strong fourth despite a being steadied on the turn. She left the gate at 6/1 and trailed into the far turn. Made up ground late, but was never a threat while finishing third. In the fifth I had my "BET of the Day" with Todd Pletcher's Pinstripe. He was a $130K OBS purchase for the Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and was working well for his debut. Didn't care much for the rail draw for a newbie, but there didn't seem to be any world beaters in the line-up. He broke a bit slowly but cruised up to engage the 4/1 front runner after the opening quarter of a mile. The two of them opened up daylight on the field through the far turn and when they turned for home top jockey Javier Castellano asked him to run. He exploded clear and drew off like most Pletcher maidens do at Gulfstream as tons the best. I had tripled the bet so the even-money odds resulted in a return of $30 for my first win of the week. The seventh was a maiden claimer going a mile on the turf for 2-year-olds. I liked Dividend for Bill Mott, and so did the crowd sending her off at 6/5. She shot up the rail into the lane and had every chance to win, but was outfinished - second. The final play of the day came in the 9th, a turf sprint for optional claimers. I went with Partly Mocha for Michael Maker with Javier Castellano up. Seemed too far back early and when he tried to rally up the rail through the turn he had a lot of traffic. Went to slide outside, but the opening closed, then dove back inside to the rail where he made up ground, but it was too late and he was a belated third as the 3/2 favorite. Back at it again tomorrow on New Year's Eve Day as I'm looking forward to watching College Football's National Semi-Final Bowl games!
We continued our winter holiday trip in Ohio today with a shopping excursion and then spent the afternoon and evening at my sisters. I did not anticipate our staying so long there and did not take my computer. About 6 pm I was wondering about checking my race results when it occurred to me that the Gulfstream replays were on YouTube and I get that on my phone, so I pulled up my selections on the Internet via my phone and then flipped screens to the YouTube app and began to watch the replays - technology, wow. The opener was a maiden claimer for two-year-olds and if there is anything I have learned is that you just cannot dismiss any Pletcher juvenile in December in a maiden race, regardless of their apparent form. Such was the case with Big Paul. He had debuted at Monmouth Park going today's one-mile distance - although on the Jersey Shore that's a two-turn event - and he had shown speed to the stretch before weakening to be a well-beaten fifth. Then off the shelf he was in an off-the-turf Belmont mile and a sixteenth race where he was a dismal as the weather, running seventh of eight throughout and finish a distant, and I mean DISTANT 35 lengths off the winner. But both these were in MSW company and today Big Paul was dropping into a $35K race, getting Javier Castellano and was a first-time gelding. He didn't look the part of a favorite, but Pletcher ALWAYS has his maidens ready for Gulfstream. He broke sharply, stalked the pace into the stretch and drew off like he was a Derby contender!
And the best part was that the crowd took that last race as a reason to dismiss and Big Paul left the gate at a generous 5/2. The $7.40 payoff meant I would collect nearly $40 for the first win of the day! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I passed the second race. The third race today was the featured Windley Key Stakes, a $75K added money event. Here's another thing I've learned from the Gulfstream Championship Meet......when the racing office creates a stakes race, typically for $50K to $75K and run it on a Sunday or a week day, it's a race that appears to be written specifically for one (maybe two) stakes runners who are making their return to the races. Such was the case with this five furlong sprint and the horse this appeared to be written for was Jewel of a Cat. This five-year-old mare had won the Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint Preview last fall but her signature effort had been a best-of-the-rest second behind the very talented Lady Shipman in the Klassy Briefcase at Monmouth last summer. I thought the race looked wide open, and as I mentioned yesterday, turf sprints are typically not what I'm best at. Jewel of a Cat broke sharply and pressed the 3/1 front runner through the turn. As they turned for home I thought she looked like she'd yet to be asked, but the sprint to the wire was an all-out duel and in deep stretch the closers were coming.......PHOTO FINISH! But I was fairly certain my nose had been in front at the wire.......
WINNER! Jewel of a Cat went off as the 7/5 favorite and I only had the minimum, but still, despite earning less than $15 I was now a perfect two-for-two! The fourth was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds going a one-turn mile and yes, there was a Pletcher runner listed at a juicy 8/1 but here's my quote from my analysis...."Oh I'm gonna hate myself for picking 9-Awesome Dame in a 2yo MSW here at Gulfstream while leaving Todd Pletcher's filly with Javier Castellano at 8/1 out of the top spot." What am I thinking? Well, first of all, the Pletcher filly had run second in her MSW debut, which is not bad at all, EXCEPT the race was run at Gulfstream Park West and it's been my experience that this bridge meet does not have strong competition so if a maiden can't win there, it's unlikely they will win here at the Championship Meet AND Pletcher runs his best maidens her for their wins not across town. More importantly, even though Awesome Dame had run second in all three career starts, two back she was a best-of-the-rest second behind Pletcher's Rachel's Valentina who exited that to win a Grade 1 at the Spa and then run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies to early Kentucky Oaks favorite Songbird. And her last out second came with the comment that she was "....checked and impeded...." at the 16th pole. The crowd was all over the place with their betting and somehow made the favorite a filly that had run fifth behind Awesome Dame and Rachel's Valentina - go figure. But it was Awesome Dame and the Pletcher filly, Miss Meteor who shook free from the field and went at it into the stretch. But 'Dame dismissed that one and set sail for the wire. She drifted way, WAY out into the center of the track but was still daylight clear for the win.
With the betting all over the place I was very fortunate to get a nice $7.80 payoff and again would cash for nearly $40 as I ran my Sunday record to a perfect three-for-three! But, that was the end of the winning ways for the week. I ran second in the fifth with One Eyed Ray on the turf - looked ready to blow by on the turn but was no match for the winner; then I was a ninth with Royal Knowledge at 3/1 in the 6th. In my final pick of the day Conquest Misbehave was 3/1 in a turf allowance going 7 1/2 furlongs and took the lead after a half mile.....but gave way and faded to sixth, though beaten less than three lengths. So for the day I was an excellent 3-for-6 and had made close to $50 to close out the week! Tomorrow we head out to Pennsylvania and are hopeful that (a) the weather is not too icy or snowy on the drive to my in-law's lake-side home but (b) we ARE hopeful to see some of the "white stuff" while in Keystone state.
We spent yesterday at my sister's house celebrating the Christmas holiday - the first time I've got up on Christmas morning at my Mom's house since college days....and trust me, that was more that a few years ago. Kim came up with an idea, that I'll admit I was not crazy about, but it turned out cute, for us to dress as "snowmen" for a holiday photo......
Because of the four graded stakes at Santa Anita I handicapped that card as well as the Gulfstream card - which featured three Grade 3 stakes - for today. Made my bets in the morning and then we spent the afternoon watching football at my sister's home before my brother and his family came for a gift exchange. Didn't get to watch the replays until nearly 10:30, but then it was time to check in on how I did for the day. The first thing that did NOT please me was that two of my picks at Gulfstream, both triple investments at a fair price, were scratched. In the opener I liked Congenial, who was a GP 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro. Sent off as the 7/5 favorite he was wide into the first turn, but tracking comfortably in third into the far turn before blowing the turn and fanning at least ten wide into the stretch and crossing the wire third. The fourth was the featured Grade 3 Sugar Swirl and featured multiple graded stakes winner Stonetastic. She likes to be loose on the lead and looked like the speed of the race. But I anticipated her rating just off the longshots today. She broke a length behind those but was gliding up to challenge as they passed the first quarter pole, but the leader came down to the rail and Stonetastic was forced to check and steady sharply dropping nearly three off the lead. Now not only would she have to come from off the pace, but would have to make up for trouble. Too much in the end when second best at 1/5. With the scratches no play until the seventh, a turf sprint. As I wrote in my analysis one of the keys to handicapping is to know what you are and are not good at, and generally I am not nearly as successful finding winners in a turf sprint. But Ramblin and Gamblin was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis (44%). He went off at a generous 4/1 price and was sitting just off the double-digit odds leader through the far turn while the two of them were daylight clear of the rest. He burst away through the stretch and won handily!
The $10.80 payoff was nice, wish I'd bet more as I generally double up on "Club plays." Still cashed for nearly $30. Right back in the 8th, a Maiden Special for juveniles, and yes I liked the Pletcher runner Rally Cry. I wrote in my analysis that you're just asking for trouble to go against the top barn's maidens here, but that if there ever was a time it was in an instance like this where Rally Cry had disappointed at 1/5 odds in his Aqueduct debut. AND the favorite was exiting a good second when splitting two horses who exited to win their next. Still, Rally Cry was a Gulfstream 40% Club play coming off a short layoff and as I wrote, I'd be sick if he won without me. As they turned for home it was the favorite and Rally Cry clear of the field dueling to the 1/8th pole. But then Rally Cry bounded clear to WIN!
The big $6.20 payoff was huge for a Pletcher 2yo MSW at Gulfstream and this time I DID double the bet, cashing for over $30. In the other stakes, I was off the board. War Dancer was clear on the lead hitting the far turn in the Grade 3 McKnight going 12 furlongs on the turf at 4/1, but faded to fifth. In the Grade 3 La Prevoyante I went against Castellano and the favorite because I thought she'd face pace pressure. Went with Christophe Clement's Trophee at a big 8/1 with John Velazquez. No hope as Castellano walked on the front end through a :50 half mile and 1:16 for 3/4 of a mile, long gone. My pick was a strong 5th considering the fractions. I then flipped to the Santa Anita card and watched my first two picks run third and fifth. In the first of the four graded stakes Mister Brightside was right there at the top of the stretch in the one-mile turf event, the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile, but faded to be 6th at 9/2. In the Grade 1 LaBrea I liked the NY invader, Cavorting who'd been my pick in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She was the 7/5 favorite here and was stalking up the rail as they approached the far turn, and then the video stopped. I could never get the feed to work on my laptop and eventually watched the replays on my phone. I ran third while my second choice, Birdatthewire - who I'd bet in her last two but not today - blew by from well back to upset the race at huge 10/1 odds. Wow. But I came back to win the last big stakes of the day with my BET of the Day on Runhappy in the Grade 1 Malibu going seven furlongs. He was the upset winner of the Grade 1 King's Bishop at Saratoga this summer and I didn't like him there; then he won the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland and I didn't like him there either; then he won his fourth consecutive race in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint, where AGAIN I didn't like him. OK, today he looked M-U-C-H the best getting Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens for the first time. His last three speed figures of 108, 104, and 113 were double-digit lengths clear of anything the rest of the field could run. I was a little fearful of a speed duel and him coming out of the Breeders' Cup running out west for the first time being negatives. But he just looked way too good. He went right to the front and ran away from the field as much the best.
For the day I only had the three wins, but was able to keep the losses to a minimum. Picks tomorrow at Gulfstream as we close out the short holiday week. Then off to Pennsylvania on Monday and I'll play the last week of the month from there - hoping to see a little snow there as it was in the 60s here in Ohio!
Gulfstream Trio Of Victories Kicks Off Christmas Week
A year ago when we visited Ohio and Pennsylvania for Thanksgiving with our youngest son Brad and his wife Lauren we had such a nice visit that we began making plans to spend the Christmas and New Year's holidays up north. And so today was the day we began the twelve day adventure. We had coordinated our flights so that Kim and I would arrive from Ft. Lauderdale shortly before Brad and Lauren from Orlando. We had a direct flight and were actually a little early while they had a layover in Baltimore and were delayed, so we waited for them at the Columbus airport for a little less than an hour, but it went by quickly and soon the four of us were off in the rental car for the short trip to my Mom's. We had been hoping for a nice "winter vacation" and to be able to enjoy some cold weather and snow, but upon arrival it was in the 60s and overcast - even poured down rain later in the evening. The forecast is for more of the same here in Ohio, but maybe we might see a little wet snow in Pennsylvania when we get there next week. My Mom was waiting as well as my sister and niece when we arrived. Later in the evening I was able to watch the Gulfstream replay show to see how my selections had done.
I had handicapped the card on Monday and had found seven selections that I felt were worthy of investing in. In the opener we were going a mile on the turf and I liked Aplomb from the Michael Maker's barn. He was lightly raced and had only two turf starts. He'd won his turf debut at Mountaineer and then went to Belmont to run in a stakes race where he was beaten only three lengths while finishing fourth. In his most recent he went seven furlongs on the main track at Churchill. That was against open $50K runners and today he'd face $30K "beaten" claimers. The return to the turf, the stretch in distance, and the significant class drop all pointed him out as a likely winner to me. And I liked the fact that jockey Luis Saez was up since he'd been piling up the wins lately. Right from the gate Aplomb was sent to the front from his rail draw. But he was hounded the entire by another runner. The two set reasonable, but fast fractions as they cleared off from the field and hit the far turn. The challenger made his move through the turn and actually had his head in front as they began to spin out of the turn, but the ground-saving trip allowed Aplomb to regain the advantage and as they hit the furlong marker he was narrowly in front. The two dueled all the way to the wire, but my pick was able to hang on and I had my first win of the week!
In the program Aplomb had been listed at 5/1 and I'd gone in for just a minimum play. Fortunately he paid a nice $8.40 so I was going to collect over $20 to start off the racing week. The second race was a six furlong sprint, again for "beaten" claimers. The conditions read, "....for three-year-olds and up that have never won three races, or three-year-olds...." When I find races like that I always prefer the multiple winning sophomores and such was the case with Right On Ready. He held a huge advantage I thought because while NONE of his rivals today had won more than two races, he was a FOUR time winner with two coming for this price level and at today's distance. He was first off the claim and was getting an apprentice rider that would save him ten pounds. I am typically reluctant to bet when there is not a solid rider, the paired speed figures and the distinct edge under today's conditions made Right On Ready a solid play. The gates opened and he was away slowly. But by the time they hit the first quarter pole he had glided up to challenge for the lead. He dueled with a 6/1 runner through the turn while well in hand. When they hit the top of the lane he took over effortless and ran away from the field as a convincing winner. Two-for-two to start the Christmas week of racing!
The crowd was not fooled by the apprentice rider and made Right On Ready the even money favorite. With my double investment I was cashing for another $20 and change. I passed the third race, a maiden special going a one turn mile. Spinning Wheel looked best, but she'd already been twice beaten as the favorite and I was reluctant to bet considering that was a runner from the Ralph Nicks barn - he's been very hot of late - who looked strong, as well as a Pletcher runner. My top pick won and paid a little more than $5 as the favorite. In the fourth race we were back on the turf with $50K winners who had never won two races. Bill Mott sent out the likely favorite, Robe, who was coming off the layoff while racing for a claiming tag for the first time, and in restricted company for the first time. She run in MSW races at Saratoga & Belmont and then in allowance company when facing winners. I thought she looked really strong, so I tripled the bet. She had no early speed and as they turned into the backstretch she was next to last. But she made a strong middle move to reach third as they hit the turn while less than two off the leaders. She was looking for racing room through the turn and finally found it up the rail as the field turned for home. She was near the front but then a cavalry charge of runners came flying up to join her. On the wire there were SEVEN across the track separated by a nose, a head, a nose, a neck, a half length and a neck. The winner, not me paid $9.20 while Robe was 7th in the blanket finish at 3/2. In the fifth there were two that looked likely to win, a Woodbine invader and Yo Esta who had dominated at this level last time out. But she'd also been beaten by ten lengths at this level and distance back in September so I passed while listing her as the second choice. She ran her "A" race today and won, paying an even $10. The seventh was a maiden race with every runner coming from a low percentage barn and every rider was a "no name" jockey with the exception of Corey Lanerie who was on 13-time maiden runner Battleback John. I listed him for that reason alone but had no interest in betting him.....he finally got his first career win and paid $6.40. The seventh was a MSW for two-year-olds - where's the Pletcher runner. THERE WERE TWO! I went with Outzap who was the 5/2 co-favorite. He was midpack to the far turn and then stopped finishing ninth. Fortunately the other Pletcher runner did not win as a 19/1 upset lit up the tote board. The eighth was a rare opportunity to get a Pletcher runner at a price. Tybalt's Queen was listed at 10/1 in the program for a starter optional claiming event on the turf. She was a juicy 8/1 at post time and was stalking in third into the turn.....I might have something here! But when the real running started, she stopped, finishing a well beaten eighth. In the ninth I had mixed feelings about Todd Pletcher's Tiger Moth. On the upside this 3yo filly had run speed figures in her last four that beat 67 of the 72 numbers earned by her rivals today; and three of those had been earned by her stable mate that had never gone beyond six furlongs, and today was a one-turn mile event. The downside was that Tiger Moth had run second in FOUR STRAIGHT, and two of those she was beaten as the odds-on favorite. Still, coming off a 31-to-60 day layoff she was a Gulfstream 40% Club play. Combine that with the figure advantage and I made her the double investment play. Well, in spite of the downside the crowd hammered her down to 1/5 odds. Not sure that was a good idea, but she was well in hand on the rail through the turn, eased out three wide and blew by to win like an odds-on favorite should. Only paid $2.40, so I cashed for less than $15, but had my third winner on the day!
The finale on the Wednesday card was a MSW on the turf. Tracking Stock was sent out by Chad Brown and was stepping up in class today. BUT, that has been a Gulfstream 40% Club angle for Brown over the last two winters, producing winners at a huge 44% rate. He was a fair 2/1 price when then left the gate and had good position just off the leaders on the rail. As they turned for home he had no late punch and finished evenly to be fourth. So for the day I was a good 3-for-7, a big 43% winning average. No racing tomorrow on Christmas Eve Day, nor on Christmas Day. But racing resumes on Saturday where it is also Opening Day at Gulfstream's sister track, Santa Anita in Southern California where they have four big graded stakes on their holiday card. I will have selections for bot tracks!
The weekend selections came to a close with more of the same from Saturday. In the second I Feel Great was steadied early and lost all chance; rallied belatedly for third. I had my lone win in the second in a tight photo finish when Ever Arch won a Maiden Special for 2yo fillies. The $6.00 payoff enabled me to salvage some of my bankroll by collecting $30. In the fifth Cover Up was the latest of the week's selections to start behind the field; nothing when seventh at 2/1. My pick scratched from the seventh. In the eighth Chad Brown's Verbouwen was the 6/5 favorite and came swooping up to take command at the top of the stretch. Clear at the 16th pole she was run down late to finish third. In the ninth my top pick won, but no bet. Wow. And in the finale I went against Javier Castellano - seemed like a good move after he'd disappointed me all day - but his mount, my second choice ran by my pick Starship Frontier who had the lead in mid stretch....second.
But I guess if I had to pick, I'd take the glorious win by our Florida Panthers as we notched our fourth win in a row and moved within three points of the lead in our division with an exciting 5-4 shoot-out victory over Vancouver on Alexander Barkov's sensational backhand goal (see below). The holiday week has live racing (and selections) on Wednesday; no racing Christmas Eve or Christmas Day; then live racing over the weekend highlighted by Opening Day at Santa Anita on Saturday. We'll be in Ohio but the project will go on!
I was disappointed in the way the Gulfstream selections turned out, though for the most part I was in nearly every race with a chance at winning - at least I thought so - at some point. I decided that I would enjoy the races on the 65" television from the comfort of my new recliner so I hooked up my older laptop to the big screen and brought my wireless keyboard to my chair. It was an ideal "simulcast" center for the day. In the opener at Tampa I made a bid, then flattened out, fifth. In the third at Gulfstream Ousby swept up three-wide on the turn and then accelerated to the wire, drawing off by over ten widening lengths in easily the most impressive win on the Saturday card.
He went off as the co-favored 2/1 choice and with my double investment I got back $30. I thought I was off to a typically good day.
That was at 1:00 pm. The next time I cashed a ticket it was at 4:30 pm. WOW. At Tampa Kandoo was 4/5 and dueled into the stretch before weakening to be third. At Gulfstream Stallwalkin' Dude was never in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector as the winner - who I never considered - wired the field at 2/1. In the 7th Todd Pletcher sent out a Chilean import, Golden Canyon, who was 5/2 at post time. Trailed to the stretch before slightly improving to sixth. In the 8th it was my BET of the Day locally. The son of champion Uncle Mo, Mo Power was debuting for Pletcher. He was a generous 8/5 at post time but was fifth turning for home. He was F-L-Y-I-N-G inside the final furlong and was oh-so-close on the wire. Two jumps later he was two in front, but it was too late. In the Tropical Park Derby I went with Mark Casse's multiple graded stakes winning Conquest Typhoon who had not run since Derby Day. He was a big 8/1 and was right there halfway down the backside. But jockey Joe Bravo decided to stay inside horses through the turn and had no where to go as he was screaming out to run. Still blocked until inside the furlong marker he finally was shifted outside, but it was too late and he was a very close fifth. I believe if he'd been given a chance to run through the turn he would have outclassed these.was the 4/5 favorite in the Sandpiper for 2yo fillies. Dueled into the stretch and weakened to be third. In their 8th Jay's ways rallied strongly at 4/1 to be a close third in the Inaugural for 2yo colts, but was never really a win threat. At the Fair Grounds Beach Patrol was clear in the stretch in a Maiden 2yo turf route, but was nailed late to be second.
Finally, in the 9th at Tampa, the Lightning City Stakes I was able to find the winner's circle - but I was oh-so-close to changing my bet at the last minute. This was a five furlong turf sprint for older and when I handicapped the race the thing that leaped off the page to me was that there were SEVERAL who wanted the front, apparently setting the stage for a late running closer such as the likely favorite Joya Real. But then I remembered that for at least the last two years IN THIS RACE, and maybe more than that, I'd analyzed the race and said there were multiple speed types that would set the table, but instead one of the speedsters stole it. I saw that Chicago-based trainer Larry Rivelli was shipping Richie's Sweetheart, which was a plus in and of itself. She was 6-for-9 in turf sprints and in three of her last four turf sprints she'd earned Beyers in the low 90s which would win this. Finally, Chicago-based rider E.T. Baird, who I think is THE best front-running rider, was coming in to ride. And the program odds were a generous 4/1. I doubled the bet. But when the post parade came up I heard the announcement that there was Dean Butler would be riding - a local journeyman. Uh oh....better change the bet I thought. But then I thought, no, stick with it. The gates sprung open and within two jumps Richie's Sweetheart was two in front. The opening fraction was posted at :21 and change - too fast, but it seemed that the rider was sitting chilly and the horse was running well within her self. As the field turned for home the closers began making up ground, but she had another gear left and held them all safely at bay.
Best of all, the final odds floated UP to 5/1 and the huge $13.40 payoff meant I'd collect nearly $70!At Gulfstream Todd Pletcher's Tennessee was the 9/5 favorite in a one-turn mile but broke poorly, rushed up, then was blocked and wide when third. I rebounded to win my second stake of the day, this the first of several added money events on the Fair Grounds "Super Santa" card. This was the Blushing KD Stakes. I liked former Grade 1 winner Kitten's Dumplings who was dropping out of graded company for Michael Maker. She was at the back after a half mile, moved entering the turn and burst to the front spinning out of the turn. She was daylight clear at the furlong marker but a late runner made her work to the wire where she held on by a diminishing half length. The odds were fair, at better than 2/1 and I collected over $30. In the Tropical Park Oaks at Gulfsteram Pletcher's Osalia was bet down to 8/5 favoritism. She stalked the pace in 4th on the rail to the turn, then stopped badly to finish 12th and last. I had three races left on my sheet at this point, a little after 5 pm, so I made the bets and Kim and I had dinner and then watched a television show. When dinner and the show were over I told Kim I wanted to check my last few races and she went to take her bath. In the 8th at the Fair Grounds Regally Ready looked much the best in the Diliberto Memorial going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. He could set the pace or stalk from the rail. He broke sharply and went to the front in hand. But a 10/1 outsider came flying up to engage him. The two dueled into the backstretch and then Regally Ready edged clear. But the rider of the longshot began pushing his horse, even though they hadn't gone four furlongs yet. So the two dueled to the far turn before that one quit. Regally Ready was two in front but the softening had taken place and he had nothing through the lane, finishing a tiring 6th at 3/2. It was minutes from post time of BOTH of my last two selections. At the Fair Grounds Eagle was my pick in the Tenacious Stakes going a mile-seventy yards. He was bet down to 7/5 favoritism and when he split horses at the top of the lane he simply galloped to the wire easily best.
As the field at the Fair Grounds hit the backstretch, the gates opened at Los Alamitos in the Grade 1 Las Alamitos Futurity with a $350K purse and Kentucky Derby points on the line. Trainer Bob Baffert had two in here and I thought that Mor Spirit would be the favorite but he looked like he might be a serious Kentucky Derby contender to me. But as they came through the far turn the "other" Baffert runner was moving to the front and Mor Spirit was fifth, some six off the lead. It looked like he wasn't even beginning to move, but as they began to spin out of the turn Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens asked for run. The response was immediate and without being ridden hard he was quickly challenging. At the furlong marker it was down to the two Bafferts and STILL Stevens did not ask. Mor Spirit won by a little more than a length, but if you look at the replay below you'll see that even as they cleared and hit the wire Stevens NEVER asked for run. So despite a single win from the opening bell to 4:30 in the afternoon I finished at over 31% with five wins from sixteen races. I'll take it.
The Friday card provided my Gulfstream Handicapping Project with three more winners this afternoon as I was "at the track" virtually today while continuing to allow my surgical procedure to heal. Felt much better today and am very hopeful that this continues at this rate. The ten race card yielded selections when I'd completed the handicapping analysis and things got started right away in the opener. A one mile turf claiming event I liked what was the likely post time favorite Viva Bertha who was sent out by Peter Walder with Javier Castellano on board. With the inside draw Castellano sent her right to the front, but she was hounded from the get-go. But when they turned into the lane Viva Bertha and the 10/1 longshot had separated themselves by daylight for the sprint to the wire. I felt pretty confident that I had the winner. But instead it was the outsider that finished best and I ran a close second. A closer was flying late and I thought I was third, but the photo revealed that it was a Dead Heat for the place, not that it really mattered to me. Was glad I'd only made a minimum bet. In the second we were back on the grass, this time with a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs. I went against the obvious favorite from the Christophe Clement barn. Just not a fan when a horse does not run well at GPW before moving here. Instead I went with Mark Casse's Moonlight Bandit who was 6/1 in the program. Casse had been on fire at the Keeneland Fall meet and his horses ran very well at the Breeders' Cup. I have had the feeling - especially after handicapping daily at Woodbine from August through October where Casse is based - that he was bringing in several live runners to the Gulfstream Championship Meet. 'Bandit had only been on the turf three times. One was a marathon try which was an easy toss. The other two were in entry-level allowance company and he was a good third in both with speed figures good enough to win here. The drop in for a first time tag and first time conditioned company was the angle to bet on. My only concern was jockey Julian Leparoux who always seems to bring out his worst when on board my selections. But today Leparoux had Moonlit Bandit stalking in fourth through slow splits (:50 / 1:15) and then moved three-wide to challenge for the lead. As they sprinted home he wore down the front runner, who ironically was ridden by Castellano again!
Two significant items about the win - first the nice price of $6.60. But second was when I went to calculate the payoff on my bet I noted that in my original analysis I had listed the bet as a $5 minimum play. But I had been thinking all along it was a double investment. Maybe I was thinking this because it was the #10 horse. So I switched to the "Recall Today's Bets" screen and to my surprise, and delight, I HAD bet a double investment so I would be cashing for over $33! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I passed the third where I didn't like any of the 2-lifetime turf routers. In the fourth I felt confident in my pick of Saffron Hall from the Michael Maker barn, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and ridden by Javier Castellano. My second choice was Golden Rifle. Right out of the gate Golden Rifle dumped his jockey and much like last week the loose horse came up between runners and forced Castellano to drift out several paths with Saffron Hall. Once clear he got that one back in striking position and was right there in third turning for home. But he ran evenly to the wire. Did that early trouble cost him? My feeling was it SHOULD have but I didn't think he'd have won even with a clean trip. In the fifth we were still on the inner course with a MSW contest. Ras Abrouq was my minimum bet and I was surprised that Ron Nicoletti had singled this one on his early Pick-5 ticket. I considered upping the investment, but decided against it. At 5/2 he made a strong middle move and then stopped like he was shot fading terribly to twelfth and last. The sixth was a claiming event going a one-turn mile. I REALLY liked All Over It, another Peter Walder-Javier Castellano runner. First, as with any one-turn mile race, I think horses who have won at a one-turn mile hold a distinct edge over any who have not; it's just a very unique kind of race. Even more so if the win at a one-turn mile is on the track we are running at today. All Over It held TWO wins here at GP at a one-turn mile, and the first was an 18 length blowout maiden win. The other was a daylight score against $30K "beaten" claimers. Today he'd face $12.5K "beaten" company. Duh. I was delighted that the crowd let him go off at even money. He went right to the front, dueled from the get-go and was finally able to edge clear late, my second winner on the day!
My triple investment meant I'd cash for a cool $30 on my second winning selection. The 7th was a maiden claiming event going seven furlongs. Like any maiden event at Gulfstream the first and most important question was, is there a Todd Pletcher runner. Sure enough, but interestingly neither John Velazquez or Javier Castellano were riding. But Luis Saez is a very good jockey, not only here but on the national stage. Sometimes that means a more than fair price for a Pletcher runner. Vinny White Shoes was the pick debuting today for the Starlight Stables. The fact he'd been a $300K Keeneland Sales purchase told me somebody thought he had ability. Despite the fact that Pletcher showed only a 7% DRF win percentage with first time maiden claimers I still preferred him over what looked to me like a very ordinary group. Saez had him mid-pack to the far turn then eased him out three-wide for clear run. He caught the front-runner at the 16th pole and edged clear in a driving finish. As Saez walked his mount into the winner's circle track announcer told the crowd this was the jockey's FOURTH win of the day, and we're only six races into the card! As I looked ahead to the ninth race - no selection in the eighth - I considered that I was already 3-for-6 on the day, well ahead and guaranteed a big winning day, and I had yet to see my BET of the Day run! When they were in the paddock for the ninth both Gabby Gaudet, the new hot handicapping gal on track, and Ron Nicoletti thought that even at 1/9 odds, Todd Pletcher's Destin just laid over the field. Gaudet also talked about how good he looked physically and how confident he looked. Top rider Javier Castellano sealed what looked like a done deal. Fortunately he floated up to 1/5 at post time and he broke sharply. A 25/1 longshot on the inside went to the front of this one-turn mile and Castellano had the favorite perfectly positioned. The first red flag went up when the leader was in front by two and the opening fraction was posted in a slow :25 and change. One-turn mile events often have very quick opening fractions and this did NOT bode well for me unless Destin was indeed so much better than the rest of these as his odds reflected. The second red flag, and a GIANT red flag went up when as they moved through the turn the leader's rider hadn't moved a muscle and it was clear that Castellano was pushing Destin vigorously to try and make up some ground. As they turned for home he was gradually narrowing the gap but he was never going to catch the winner. Wow, what a major disappointment. But still, for the day I was 3-for-7, over 40%, and even with the "BET of the Day" loss I finished nearly $30 ahead on the day. You ALWAYS have to be happy about that at the tough Gulfstream meet, especially on a week day! Even with the stakes action and nice weather expected for tomorrow I've decided that it would be a much wiser decision for me to stay home and continue to heal before we head out on our two week adventure up north next Wednesday.
After all the seconds on Saturday, then single wins on Sunday and Wednesday I was glad to get back on the beam with a 33% day and a big profit for Thursday's action. My recovery began in earnest today as I backed off the pain medication and didn't take anything all day as I wanted to regain some sense of normalcy. The main "event" of the day came when I went to my computer this morning and found it had restarted - uh oh. Automatic updates that promised to make my experience better. Uh, yeah, that NEVER happens to me. The first thing I noticed was my printer could not print anything online. Then my PDF printer wouldn't work, period. So re-downloaded that. Got a hold of the HP support team and they "took over" my computer. Then I sat there for literally 90 minutes before finally the printer drivers etc. were downloaded. Seems Windows 10 update thought I'd be happy with the McAfee virus control, which blocked my printer and kicked out the PDF printer. Well, back to normal right? No, discovered neither my Dreamweaver or Fireworks software for online web design now worked, so I needed to reload that entire package - luckily I'd saved the files on the eternal hard drive so it was just a waiting game. In the afternoon I handicapped for the weekend - deciding it would be best for the long run if I did NOT go out to GP on Saturday - and finally ventured out of the house for a small steak at Big Bear Brewery in Coral Springs with Kim. When we got home I went to the computer and watched the replays.In the opener I bet the minimum on Dunkin Bend in a 5 1/2 furlong spring for bottom level claimers. He was sent off as a prohibitive 3/2 favorite, but was a well-beaten sixth. It's a long way for that one from today's drubbing for a $6,250 tag after winning the Grade 3 Sapling Stakes as a juvenile - wow. In the second I was certain I had the winner. Exclusive Strike looked "formidable" as I wrote in my analysis after having won at this claiming level last year he set the pace in a Grade 1 and finished third. He'd paired figures against much tougher and looked tough here. Cruised to the front under a hand ride with jockey Paco Lopez looking under his arm for competition as he collared the leader. But as they turned for home he did NOT spurt away and the 12/1 longshot leader held him off the length of the stretch - second. Wow, again. I passed the third where 2yo maiden claimers had nothing to offer to me. In the fourth I passed again in another maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. But I wrote about one horse, Peaky Blinders who was 6/1 in the program simply because that is a very intriguing Netflix program I like. Ironically he won at 3/1! The fifth was THE Race of the Day as it turned out. This was a Starter Optional Claiming event going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf for two-year-olds. It was a wide open event with fourteen fillies in the lineup with very few who had faced winners. One that had was Beautiful Sin. This gal had two angles that appealed to me. First, she was dropping out of back-to-back stakes tries into this spot which was for runners who'd started for a claiming tag; and second, probably most importantly, she'd broken her maiden over THIS TURF COURSE, at THIS DISTANCE three back. I thought, in this field, was a big edge. This evening when I watched the races I decided to watch them in HD in "full screen" mode on my big monitor via the Gulfstream YouTube channel. The disadvantage was that I would not know the odds unless my pick was in the top four at some point, and even that wasn't going to be guaranteed the final odds. As they headed down the backstretch and approached the far turn Beautiful Sin was next to last and the pace was not fast. Not looking good I thought. But then with the shake of the reins she hit a new gear and went from ninth to the front while racing four wide through the turn. She collared the leader at the furlong marker and edged clear late. Best of all, her odds were 4/1!
I had tripled the bet so the $10.60 payoff led to a return on my investment of almost $80! I passed the sixth where my second choice won. In the 7th it was a 2yo MSW going a one-turn mile. Looked for the Pletcher filly and found one - then found a second. Sigh, I seem to be zigging when I should be zagging when this has happened so far in the short start to the championship meet. But I thought that Holders Season with Javier Castellano was the better of the two. But as they hit the far turn, the "other Pletcher," Caffine was on the lead as the post time favorite at 6/5 odds. But the pace had been swift and I thought she might have problems holding on. My issue was that Holders Season was three wide with Castellano urging her vigorously and she didn't seem to be gaining. But as heads straightened for home she began to make progress. She and the other stalker now blew by Caffine (at least I was right about NOT betting that one!) and they dueled to the wire - PHOTO FINISH!
Just up to win! WHOOOO HOOOO and the odds had shown 2/1 as they ran through the stretch, but late money knocked her down to 8/5. The $5.40 payoff along with my triple investment - that's right, three of them on the day - led to a return of over $40! In the 8th my pick, Escondido was a huge 7/1 and couldn't quite catch the odds-on favorite, but was a good second. In the 9th, my final pick of the day One Step Salsa was in the clear turning for home while third and looked to ready to roll....but then ran evenly to the wire. So for the day a good 2-for-6, but a profit of $55 for the day! HORRAY FOR ME!
The week started off miserably for me, and I don't think it's much of a stretch that it truly was one of the worst days of my life. It had nothing to do with racing, but with a physical problem that came had to be dealt with. Three weeks ago I felt a small nodule in my rear end. Seemed like a pimple or something. After nearly two weeks of it not changing I went to my doctor a week ago. The good news she gave me was that it was nothing to be worried about, just an infected hair follicle it appeared. She told me I could use warm compresses to relieve the discomfort and I replied that the good news was that I did not have any discomfort whatsoever. That was last Wednesday. By Saturday, when I was at Gulfstream, it had become a minor irritation that sometimes when I sat I had to shift my weight to find a more comfortable position to be in. And by Saturday evening it was sore. But I attributed that to continually walking and irritating the sore. Monday when I took a bath I could feel some swelling and this appeared to me to be the infection. I looked it up online and read that this was common and that typically these infections would disappear in a day or two, or you could visit your doctor and have it sliced & drained. That did not sound good! And honestly at the beginning of the day I honestly felt pretty good. But by midafternoon I was beginning to take warm baths and use a warm compress to try and make myself more comfortable. It was much more difficult to be comfortable that evening watching television, but still I wasn't that concerned. But after a fairly uncomfortable night of restless sleep I was concerned I might have to take action. I took a bath first thing after getting up and now I could definitely feel a large swelling. Not good. I drove myself to the Cleveland Clinic ER where I was fortunate to get right in. The diagnosis was the same and the treatment was explained to me that either they would give me antibiotics and send me home, or the doctor would locally numb it, make a small incision and drain it; then send me home. Then I saw the first colon specialist. He said they would either do it locally and drain it, or they would get me into the operating room, give me light anesthesia, and do a surgical procedure. Probably not spend the night, but at worst one night. Of those two options (since apparently simply the meds was out) I preferred the local numbing with a drain and let's go home. By now Kim was on her way since this was more serious than I'd originally thought. Well let me give you this advice - if you ever are so unlucky to have this condition, if you have the option, take the O.R. where they knock you out! When the surgeon came - a pretty young girl mind you, but I was in no mood to consider this at the time - just her probing to try and determine what to do, including putting pressure on the infected area (which had now begun to drain) was exceptionally painful. But oh no my friends, this was NOT the worse. The above photo was the aftermath of this process and I was trying to regain my composure while I don't mind telling you fighting back tears of pain. But I felt fairly good (as good as can be expected) because the explanation of what was to happen was they would give me a local which would be a brief prick of pain, and they said it would hurt, then very quick burning sensation; but then I wouldn't feel anything. I can deal with that I thought. Well, even with the local - which didn't not hurt that badly - it was the worst pain I've ever experienced. I was gritting my teeth throughout while biting down on my hospital gown, and under some much pain that my body was literally shaking. The sweet surgeon continually apologized and told me I was doing great. But after what seemed an eternity it was finally over. After getting past the pain I slowly began to feel better and since I was yet to take any pain medication I drove Kim's car home. I spent the rest of the afternoon taking pain medication and keeping weight off the area. It did feel improved, I will give you that, but the entire experience had really drained me. But I was able to keep occupied by handicapping the Wednesday and Thursday cards at Gulfstream.
Wednesday December 16 - Day 8
Today, while it was not nearly as painful, drained me again. I had to be at the doctor's office at the Cleveland Clinic for a follow-up on the procedure from yesterday and honestly I was more than a little nervous that when the "packing" and bandage were removed that there might be more probing and pain. But this doctor was very gentle and when she apologized during the exam I told her, I have a whole new definition for pain because after the previous day this truly was nothing. I got out of there at about 9:45 am and walked to the building next door for an appointment with a specialist regarding my ongoing blood clot issue. Kim joined me a little after 10:30 and the apt was at 11 am. They, luckily, didn't touch me, but it was uncomfortable to lay on the exam table (but better than sitting) during the meeting & discussion. By the end of the day I was really uncomfortable - but as much for my back & sides for all of the awkward movements trying to keep my bottom from being sore the previous day. At about dinner time it was time to check the racing from Gulfstream. Ironically the lone win on the day was the ONLY race I did not have an added money investment. Quiet Force was wide when finishing 4th at 9/2 in the opener. Tzi Our Destiny was second at 2/1 in the second; my bet of the day scratched out of the 4th; in the 5th Alpine Sky was 2/1 but was not better than 4th. In the 9th I liked Tapitation who was 3/1 in the program on the turf. She was squeezed at the start and was dead last through a pedestrian :50/3 half. I thought I was completely out of it, but he began rallying, split horses in the stretch, dueled along the rail and was JUST up on the wire.
He was bet down to 6/5 at post time so I barely collected over $10. Still, just happy to have a win. In the finale Percussion was a GP 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro. Was 5/2 at post time and a competitive third.
After having so much bad luck yesterday I felt pretty certain that while I might not have a super day of handicapping, I would at least not be victimized by bad racing luck. Yet, there are so MANY ways that the racing gods can frown on your chances! And the early part of the day brought more of the same as yesterday - convinced I had the right horse, but lost due to circumstances beyond my control. Today it was the jockey issue. And before I begin, let me first say that (a) it is rare that I blame the rider, it has to be oh-so-obvious that he made a poor judgement call; and (b) it was through GREAT race riding that my BET of the Day won this afternoon. So, in the end, I'm ok with the way the day and the week finished up. In the opener I had Buckskin Doll who was going for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has top notch horse stock so it is very rare to see him with a runner in for a tag, but ironically he does quite well with his horses in for a tag. This 2-lifetime sprint had his horse going off as the 6/5 favorite. Most Pletcher runners are up on the pace, or at worst stalking a few lengths off the lead. But Buckskin was well back at the rear. Late running - never a good thing at GP, got up for second but no threat to the top one. Should have been closer to the pace, but I wasn't upset at THIS rider. In the third a claiming event going a one-turn mile Starship Lisa was a standout on paper. The one thing that concerned me was the apprentice rider. But he'd won two in a row with her AND had multiple wins at the tough GP winter meet through just six days. He moved from the outside to the rail down the backside smartly to save ground then swung out on the turn and blew by the field to open up by daylight into the stretch. I had just a twitch that the move was early but she was long gone and I started to write my comments on my sheet when I heard track announcer Larry Colmus raise his voice about a closer coming. Up in the final strides. I KNEW he moved too soon :( But the worst two rides were yet to come. In the fourth it was an entry level allowance on the turf and trainer Christophe Clement had Joe Bravo on Tennesse Whiskey. The horse was 2nd off the layoff a big 45% angle for Clement and I've seen many a horse from this barn, especially on the turf score with Joe Bravo up. Last winter was an exception as Bravo could not find the winner's circle, EVER until the big barns left here. He ended up having a good summer and fall, but here - stunk it up! So based on the way he finished the year I was ok with him on board. Well, he put Tennessee Whiskey in between horses from the very beginning. And was near the back. Instead of shifting outside for clear run he made a middle move in between horses. I was apprehensive. On the turn it looked like this was a sharp move because he had clear daylight through the pack and only had the top four to get by. But instead of swinging clear for daylight he began looking for a seam. First once, then twice he checked and steadied, the last time he nearly stood up in the irons and jerked the poor horses head nearly 90 degrees to the right. Seventh after all that. WOW. In the fifth and sixth races my top pick won.....just like my top pick in the second. But I didn't bet any of them. Wow squared. In the 7th I liked Fabulous Devotion on the grass, Castor on the main track. We went to the movies to see "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2" so when we got home I checked to see if this was on the grass or moved to the dirt. On the grass. Stuck with the first pick. Under Javier Castellano he was rallying in mid-stretch when he too was cut off, checked and steadied. Finished fourth. Wow. FINALLY in the eighth I got a superlative ride, and it was from Castellano. Fortunately for me, as I mentioned at the top, it was on my BET of the Day. Lucky Kitten was the 2/1 program favorite and with good reason in this $16K turf route. He'd won at the $25K level at Saratoga for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. The second place horse was a former stakes winner. Kitten was then moved up to a $50K spot at Churchill and dueled on the lead before giving way. Today he had the rail and Castellano, who owns Gulfstream. Right to the front and he was running at a controlled pace as they approached the far turn. But here's where he showed why he is the king here. As three pressers came to Lucky Kitten most jockeys would have pushed the button mid-turn to try and win the race, and that would have opened the door for a closer to catch him in mid stretch. But Castellano refused to move a muscle. Two were on his hip and one came up and actually put a head in front as they began the run through the stretch. But Castellano KNEW he was saving all the ground and all the challengers were going to LOSE ground into the stretch. NOW he pushed the button and Lucky Kitten quickly re-gained the lead and then ran away as MUCH the best!
I had a prime-time investment on this one and cashed for nearly $45! WHOOO HOOOO. The day ended with my pick in the 9th, Ready Dancer (6/5 favorite) stopping to be tenth under the wire. So I only won with a single runner today, but it was my BEST. And my totals for the first week, dating back to Opening Weekend were 15 WINS from 39 selections for nearly 40%. I'll gladly take that here at Gulfstream.
Yes, it was a day more noteworthy for I was close than I won. Ironically I was thinking about how fortunate I'd been through the first five days of the meet with a big winning percentage; and that I knew it would at some point even out. Didn't really think it would be today however. The first oddity about the day was that even though I handicapped four different tracks and two of them, Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds, had multiple stakes races I only had seventeen selections on the day. The foreshadowing for the day came in the opener at Gulfstream, a maiden special for two year olds and there were TWO Todd Pletcher runners. I went with Javier Castellano who was the crowd's pick at 8/5. He pressed the lead to the turn, took over and then coughed it up to the other Pletcher ridden by Johnny Velazquez at a big 3/1. Missed on five more before finally scoring at 1:35 pm in the fourth at Gulfstream with Baby Bear's Soup. This Ken & Sarah Ramsey colt was also sent out by Todd Pletcher, also with Javier Castellano and I stuck with him even though it came off the turf. He'd run well on the turf in his NY debut and then had run even better in a one-turn mile at Belmont on the dirt. He won off by seven widening lengths as MUCH the best.
And best of all he paid $6.00! With my double investment I cashed for $30 and thought I was on my way. It was a s-l-o-w day with the lack of action and there were two different time frames where I had only back-to-back races at Gulfstream so I had a long wait in between plays. After missing at Aqueduct I won the first stakes of the day at the Fair Grounds with Pacific Pink in the Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Stakes. She was caught between horses but finally found a seam and burst through to score with authority as much the best. Only paid $3.00 but with the win at GP and now this one, two of my last three I thought I'd be off on a winning streak. But then the seconditis began. In the 7th at GUlfstream Kismet's Heels, another Pletcher runner, broke behind the field and then was flying late to be second best at a big 5/1 price. The next bet wasn't until the 8th locally and again it was a Pletcher runner, Prospectus, who again was a price (4/1), who AGAIN broke behind the field and AGAIN was flying to just miss, second. WOW. My bad racing luck continued when my "bet of the day" at the Fair Grounds - String King in the La Champions Turf - was carried about ten wide in the first turn by a loose horse that had dumped his rider, and then String King rallies to miss by a head, second again. Similar in the South Beach Stakes when Hope Cross rallied up the rail, too little, too late to be second. And finally in the Harlan's Holiday Stakes I went against Valid who was the fastest on figures, but he nearly always disappoints as a favorite. My pick was multiple Grade 2 winner Madefromlucky from the Pletcher barn. Second behind......yes, Valid. I left then - at 4:35 because my BET of the Day in Gulfstream's El Prado Stakes, War Correspondent, scratched. The two late races from the Fair Grounds, both stakes resulted in.....guess. No really, go ahead. Right, second and second. Oh well, it's been a good six days over all and there's more racing tomorrow!
Today was one of those days where I was so very thankful that I handicap daily because if I only handicapped on days when I went to the races I would have looked at the results from today and said "I can't I believe I missed that opportunity!" A big winner on my BEST of the Day makes for another winning day of handicapping. When I'd handicapped the card I found six selections, four of which were on the turf. But when I tuned into the live feed I discovered that the races were off the grass again today. This meant two of my picks were automatic pass races now. But the other two I was ok with the move to the dirt. One was in the opener. This race was originally scheduled to be a 7 1/2 furlong turf event, which goes two turns. But with the move to the main track this was now a one turn, seven furlong sprint. My top pick was Crazy Frank C being sent out by Michael Petro. No matter where they run in So Fla, if you see a Frank Calabrese-owned runner, you can almost always count on the fact that they are placed in a winning spot. So much do they like winning that they often put their runners in for a tag well below where they should run. But that's because they have such a turnover of horses that their feeling is they'd rather win, and take the claiming price paid to lose the horse and then go get another one than to try stiffer company. Such was the case here where Crazy Frank C (can't imagine where that name came from! LOL) had debuted in a $35K dirt sprint where he was third, beaten only a half a length, and today was dropping by over 50% to this $16K spot. Trainer Michael Petro showed a big 27% win rate with second time maidens and strong riding Paco Lopez was up. The crowd saw the same thing I did and Crazy Frank C ran "crazy good" to win for fun at odds of 4/5.
In retrospect I probably should have doubled the bet, but I'm trying to be more conservative in my wagering, especially during the week and so I only had the minimum on this winner. I had a pick in the second, but when it came off the grass I passed the race. The third was my "BEST" of the day. This was an entry-level allowance sprint going six furlongs for two-year-old fillies. As I first scanned the past performances I noted that SIX of the eight running today were exiting a maiden win. But #2 Island Saint had already run against winners. So here's the thing - not only had she faced winners but after a win as the 3/2 favorite at Saratoga in her debut she'd run in back to back stakes races:
Note the trainer, perennial champ Todd Pletcher with jockey John Velazquez riding! Look at the absurd numbers Velazquez and Pletcher have to start the meet! And Island Saint had just missed in a stakes race, obviously the short priced favorite. But when I began watching the races today I looked up the selections for Gulfstream's handicappers Gabby Gaudet and Ron Nicoletti and NEITHER picked this filly, they both sided with another! WHAT THE????? I couldn't believe that BOTH of them did NOT pick the Pletcher filly. If there is one thing I've learned since I began handicapping regularly it is that my selections have every bit as good a chance of winning as do the "pros." But when the odds board opened up for the third there was Island Saint sitting at even money. Can't fool the crowd. Not so fast my friend because by the time both the GP handicappers made their case and the horses were headed to the gate, their selection was bet down to 4/5 favoritism! I was just amazed - was I missing something here? The gates opened and Velazquez shot Island Saint to the front. I could tell as they approached the far turn that though she was being pressed by two others, the chalk was no where to be found and more importantly Velazquez had yet to ask her to run. He sat chilly until they turned for home and then asked for her for her best. She burst away and won easily by daylight. But here's the best part - not only was she not the favorite, but with the flood of late money on the beaten chalk Island Saint had drifted up to better than 2/1. OH MY! The $6.40 payoff meant my "prime time" investment would net me well over $60! Afterwards Nicoletti pointed out to the crowd that Pletcher was now a perfect 5-for-5 with his 2yo runners at the meet! I am having a very good day!
I had two other picks, but both failed to score - Salt and Pepper was 7th at 5/2 in the 7th and Spider's Silk was 6th at 2/1 in the finale. Still, another amazing day with two wins from five selections with a profit of nearly $30! I LOVE Gulfstream!
