Many times through my handicapping projects I've found myself coming off a stellar Saturday of handicapping, only to find Sunday's results to be sub-par and putting a damper on the weekend racing. And coming off a super 9-for-20 day yesterday I found myself wondering if that would be the case today....especially with the off-going at Gulfstream, and let's be honest, the card was not anything to write home about. "Calder horses" with local riders and trainers dominated the entries. And as I started handicapping the card on Friday I told myself to be very conservative and only go with runners I felt VERY confident about. But right away in the opener I had a solid selection. This was a six furlong sprint for two-year-olds running for a claiming tag of $20K. Flashing Light was sent out by trainer Larry Pilotti, who is a local guy with low win percentages typically. But lo and behold, according to the Gulfstream Handicapper by Jim Mazur, when Pilotti gives a leg up to rider Luis Saez he makes the Gulfstream 40% Club! Those guys win together at an astounding 63% - oh my! Too much to ignore, so I doubled the bet. As they spun out of the turn Saez was behind the top two without a path to clear running outside and the rail was not open. A seam appeared between runners and he took it. With a furlong to go Flashing Light dueled with another runner and it was one head up, one head down the length of the stretch! Finally in the final 100 yards Saez urged Flashing Light to the front and I had my first win on the day!
But the best part was that Flashing Light had gone off at 3/1 and I was collecting $40 to start off my Sunday at the races! NICE! The second was scheduled for the turf and I had another 40% Club play, but when it was taken off the grass I passed the race (and my pick scratched). In the third it was a 2-lifetime claiming event going a one-turn mile and none of them appeared likely winners. I listed I Believe I Can as my top choice but did not bet. He led into deep stretch but was caught by a price horse - a "winning" decision to pass the race! In the fourth we were again scheduled for the turf and I had a solid pick on the grass. The race conditions read, ".....for 3-year-olds and up who have not won three races, or three year olds....." East Rock was a three-year-old who had THREE WINS on the turf! Duh. But he was a turf-only pick, and it came off the grass. I had noted in my analysis that IF it did move to the dirt then Boom Boom Frankie would be an equally good selection as he was working on his own two-race winning streak, both on the dirt. He stalked the leaders to mid-turn, accelerated easily to the front and drew clear for my second win!
While he was the favorite, he was a tepid favorite at 9/5, so my double investment netted me nearly $30! The fifth was another non-winners of two lifetime with really a really weak collection of runners. The only one with any semblance of an edge was post-time favorite Delta Warrior who was the lone class dropper, going from a $16K 2L into today's $6.25K spot. He was clear on a daylight lead at the 16th pole, only to be run down by a price play. ANOTHER "winning decision" to pass the race. I am having a very good day! In the sixth, another race scheduled for the grass, I liked Tdd Pletcher's Sweet Ella. Long ago I learned (a) to go against a Todd Pletcher 3yo after the start of the new year, or a 2yo in December, in a maiden special was a very bad idea; and (b) while he doesn't win as often on the grass, you can often get a nice price on a Pletcher maiden in these races. Such was the case with Sweet Ella who was scheduled to be ridden by Javier Castellano. But a bit of a quandary when Delta Bride was ALSO sent out by Pletcher with jockey John Velazquez. Yesterday Pletcher won with his first two runners (lost with his third) and BOTH had Velazquez up. I listed Daring Bride as my third pick on the grass. But I also noted that if this came off the turf, then I would go with which ever of the two Pletcher fillies remained in the field. Sweet Ella scratched and the crowd was all over Daring Bride, betting her down to odds-on at 2/5. She was last into the far turn through tepid fractions of :25 and change, then an even slower :51 and change. But when Johnny V asked for her run she swept by effortlessly to score with authority by nearly seven widening lengths.
She only paid $2.80, but more importantly to me at this point was that she ran my day's totals to a perfect three-for-three! The 7th was a maiden claimer for 2yo and NONE of them had anything to bank on; I couldn't even find one worthy of a comment. The 8th was another maiden claimer, but this one was scheduled for the grass. My top pick was Keystoneforvictory who had been 7/5 at Keeneland. I noted that I would only bet him if he were well bet should this come off the turf. But he scratched. My second choice, Irish Colonel was sent off as a prohibitive 2/5 favorite and was JUST up in time to win, but without my money. The ninth was an entry level AOC sprint and I preferred Brother Bobo, but not enough to bet. Good thing as he was a distant 7th as the 2/1 chalk. In the finale we had yet another turf race moved to the turf. It was a maiden claiming event for older but if Javier Castellano was willing to take the mount in a Sunday finale, on a maiden claimer, I was in on that! I made my bet in the morning and then watched the replays after the races were concluded. Good thing I did not know that Castellano took off the mount! The local journeyman rider, who I couldn't even tell you his first name, had much the best horse and Brothers Forever drew off with an eight length win while never being asked for his best!
The 7/5 post time odds, coupled with my double investment returned nearly $25. But better than that was with this win I had concluded a PERFECT 4-for-4 day at always difficult to handicap Gulfstream Park for a profit of nearly $70. Put this together with my Saturday selections at Gulfstream and my opening weekend picks here were an astounding 7-for-12, 58% with a profit of almost $100! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
She only paid $2.80, but more importantly to me at this point was that she ran my day's totals to a perfect three-for-three! The 7th was a maiden claimer for 2yo and NONE of them had anything to bank on; I couldn't even find one worthy of a comment. The 8th was another maiden claimer, but this one was scheduled for the grass. My top pick was Keystoneforvictory who had been 7/5 at Keeneland. I noted that I would only bet him if he were well bet should this come off the turf. But he scratched. My second choice, Irish Colonel was sent off as a prohibitive 2/5 favorite and was JUST up in time to win, but without my money. The ninth was an entry level AOC sprint and I preferred Brother Bobo, but not enough to bet. Good thing as he was a distant 7th as the 2/1 chalk. In the finale we had yet another turf race moved to the turf. It was a maiden claiming event for older but if Javier Castellano was willing to take the mount in a Sunday finale, on a maiden claimer, I was in on that! I made my bet in the morning and then watched the replays after the races were concluded. Good thing I did not know that Castellano took off the mount! The local journeyman rider, who I couldn't even tell you his first name, had much the best horse and Brothers Forever drew off with an eight length win while never being asked for his best!
The 7/5 post time odds, coupled with my double investment returned nearly $25. But better than that was with this win I had concluded a PERFECT 4-for-4 day at always difficult to handicap Gulfstream Park for a profit of nearly $70. Put this together with my Saturday selections at Gulfstream and my opening weekend picks here were an astounding 7-for-12, 58% with a profit of almost $100! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
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