Dec. 11 - Day 5

WOW!  What Was The Crowd Thinking?

Today was one of those days where I was so very thankful that I handicap daily because if I only handicapped on days when I went to the races I would have looked at the results from today and said "I can't I believe I missed that opportunity!"  A big winner on my BEST of the Day makes for another winning day of handicapping.  When I'd handicapped the card I found six selections, four of which were on the turf.  But when I tuned into the live feed I discovered that the races were off the grass again today.  This meant two of my picks were automatic pass races now.  But the other two I was ok with the move to the dirt.  One was in the opener.  This race was originally scheduled to be a 7 1/2 furlong turf event, which goes two turns.  But with the move to the main track this was now a one turn, seven furlong sprint.  My top pick was Crazy Frank C being sent out by Michael Petro.  No matter where they run in So Fla, if you see a Frank Calabrese-owned runner, you can almost always count on the fact that they are placed in a winning spot.  So much do they like winning that they often put their runners in for a tag well below where they should run.  But that's because they have such a turnover of horses that their feeling is they'd rather win, and take the claiming price paid to lose the horse and then go get another one than to try stiffer company.  Such was the case here where Crazy Frank C (can't imagine where that name came from! LOL) had debuted in a $35K dirt sprint where he was third, beaten only a half a length, and today was dropping by over 50% to this $16K spot.  Trainer Michael Petro showed a big 27% win rate with second time maidens and strong riding Paco Lopez was up.  The crowd saw the same thing I did and Crazy Frank C ran "crazy good" to win for fun at odds of 4/5. 

In retrospect I probably should have doubled the bet, but I'm trying to be more conservative in my wagering, especially during the week and so I only had the minimum on this winner.  I had a pick in the second, but when it came off the grass I passed the race.  The third was my "BEST" of the day.  This was an entry-level allowance sprint going six furlongs for two-year-old fillies.  As I first scanned the past performances I noted that SIX of the eight running today were exiting a maiden win.  But #2 Island Saint had already run against winners.  So here's the thing - not only had she faced winners but after a win as the 3/2 favorite at Saratoga in her debut she'd run in back to back stakes races:

Note the trainer, perennial champ Todd Pletcher with jockey John Velazquez riding!  Look at the absurd numbers Velazquez and Pletcher have to start the meet!  And Island Saint had just missed in a stakes race, obviously the short priced favorite.  But when I began watching the races today I looked up the selections for Gulfstream's handicappers Gabby Gaudet and Ron Nicoletti and NEITHER picked this filly, they both sided with another!  WHAT THE?????  I couldn't believe that BOTH of them did NOT pick the Pletcher filly.  If there is one thing I've learned since I began handicapping regularly it is that my selections have every bit as good a chance of winning as do the "pros."  But when the odds board opened up for the third there was Island Saint sitting at even money.  Can't fool the crowd.  Not so fast my friend because by the time both the GP handicappers made their case and the horses were headed to the gate, their selection was bet down to 4/5 favoritism!  I was just amazed - was I missing something here?  The gates opened and Velazquez shot Island Saint to the front.  I could tell as they approached the far turn that though she was being pressed by two others, the chalk was no where to be found and more importantly Velazquez had yet to ask her to run.  He sat chilly until they turned for home and then asked for her for her best.  She burst away and won easily by daylight.  But here's the best part - not only was she not the favorite, but with the flood of late money on the beaten chalk Island Saint had drifted up to better than 2/1.  OH MY!  The $6.40 payoff meant my "prime time" investment would net me well over $60!  Afterwards Nicoletti pointed out to the crowd that Pletcher was now a perfect 5-for-5 with his 2yo runners at the meet!  I am having a very good day!

I had two other picks, but both failed to score - Salt and Pepper was 7th at 5/2 in the 7th and Spider's Silk was 6th at 2/1 in the finale.  Still, another amazing day with two wins from five selections with a profit of nearly $30!  I LOVE Gulfstream!