Christmas In Ohio
Opening Day At Santa Anita
We spent yesterday at my sister's house celebrating the Christmas holiday - the first time I've got up on Christmas morning at my Mom's house since college days....and trust me, that was more that a few years ago. Kim came up with an idea, that I'll admit I was not crazy about, but it turned out cute, for us to dress as "snowmen" for a holiday photo......
Because of the four graded stakes at Santa Anita I handicapped that card as well as the Gulfstream card - which featured three Grade 3 stakes - for today. Made my bets in the morning and then we spent the afternoon watching football at my sister's home before my brother and his family came for a gift exchange. Didn't get to watch the replays until nearly 10:30, but then it was time to check in on how I did for the day. The first thing that did NOT please me was that two of my picks at Gulfstream, both triple investments at a fair price, were scratched. In the opener I liked Congenial, who was a GP 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro. Sent off as the 7/5 favorite he was wide into the first turn, but tracking comfortably in third into the far turn before blowing the turn and fanning at least ten wide into the stretch and crossing the wire third. The fourth was the featured Grade 3 Sugar Swirl and featured multiple graded stakes winner Stonetastic. She likes to be loose on the lead and looked like the speed of the race. But I anticipated her rating just off the longshots today. She broke a length behind those but was gliding up to challenge as they passed the first quarter pole, but the leader came down to the rail and Stonetastic was forced to check and steady sharply dropping nearly three off the lead. Now not only would she have to come from off the pace, but would have to make up for trouble. Too much in the end when second best at 1/5. With the scratches no play until the seventh, a turf sprint. As I wrote in my analysis one of the keys to handicapping is to know what you are and are not good at, and generally I am not nearly as successful finding winners in a turf sprint. But Ramblin and Gamblin was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis (44%). He went off at a generous 4/1 price and was sitting just off the double-digit odds leader through the far turn while the two of them were daylight clear of the rest. He burst away through the stretch and won handily!
The $10.80 payoff was nice, wish I'd bet more as I generally double up on "Club plays." Still cashed for nearly $30. Right back in the 8th, a Maiden Special for juveniles, and yes I liked the Pletcher runner Rally Cry. I wrote in my analysis that you're just asking for trouble to go against the top barn's maidens here, but that if there ever was a time it was in an instance like this where Rally Cry had disappointed at 1/5 odds in his Aqueduct debut. AND the favorite was exiting a good second when splitting two horses who exited to win their next. Still, Rally Cry was a Gulfstream 40% Club play coming off a short layoff and as I wrote, I'd be sick if he won without me. As they turned for home it was the favorite and Rally Cry clear of the field dueling to the 1/8th pole. But then Rally Cry bounded clear to WIN!
The big $6.20 payoff was huge for a Pletcher 2yo MSW at Gulfstream and this time I DID double the bet, cashing for over $30. In the other stakes, I was off the board. War Dancer was clear on the lead hitting the far turn in the Grade 3 McKnight going 12 furlongs on the turf at 4/1, but faded to fifth. In the Grade 3 La Prevoyante I went against Castellano and the favorite because I thought she'd face pace pressure. Went with Christophe Clement's Trophee at a big 8/1 with John Velazquez. No hope as Castellano walked on the front end through a :50 half mile and 1:16 for 3/4 of a mile, long gone. My pick was a strong 5th considering the fractions. I then flipped to the Santa Anita card and watched my first two picks run third and fifth. In the first of the four graded stakes Mister Brightside was right there at the top of the stretch in the one-mile turf event, the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile, but faded to be 6th at 9/2. In the Grade 1 LaBrea I liked the NY invader, Cavorting who'd been my pick in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She was the 7/5 favorite here and was stalking up the rail as they approached the far turn, and then the video stopped. I could never get the feed to work on my laptop and eventually watched the replays on my phone. I ran third while my second choice, Birdatthewire - who I'd bet in her last two but not today - blew by from well back to upset the race at huge 10/1 odds. Wow. But I came back to win the last big stakes of the day with my BET of the Day on Runhappy in the Grade 1 Malibu going seven furlongs. He was the upset winner of the Grade 1 King's Bishop at Saratoga this summer and I didn't like him there; then he won the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland and I didn't like him there either; then he won his fourth consecutive race in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint, where AGAIN I didn't like him. OK, today he looked M-U-C-H the best getting Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens for the first time. His last three speed figures of 108, 104, and 113 were double-digit lengths clear of anything the rest of the field could run. I was a little fearful of a speed duel and him coming out of the Breeders' Cup running out west for the first time being negatives. But he just looked way too good. He went right to the front and ran away from the field as much the best.
For the day I only had the three wins, but was able to keep the losses to a minimum. Picks tomorrow at Gulfstream as we close out the short holiday week. Then off to Pennsylvania on Monday and I'll play the last week of the month from there - hoping to see a little snow there as it was in the 60s here in Ohio!
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