Opening Day Preview
OPENING DAY 2015!
OPENING DAY 2015!
It started out as a day that might not happen, but turned out to be a GREAT day to kick off the Championship Meeting! Both Wednesday and Thursday it rained, a lot. Then Friday it was a deluge with flood warnings all over South Florida, including Hallandale Beach & Adventura areas where the track is. We went out to eat with our good pals Sue & Dan (and Lori, Cindy & Jess) and as it rained all evening we discussed our options for Saturday. I told them my plan would be (if it were just me I'd be going, duh) to head out and if it is pouring, we'd watch a race or two, have lunch and head home. Everyone seemed good with that plan. But Saturday morning it was POURING, again. Kim and I went back and forth about what to do, but finally after looking at the Weather Channel app on my phone it indicated that while I was raining at our house, it was only cloudy at Gulfstream. And more importantly they were predicting that it would not rain until after 1 pm. That would work out nicely so we could watch the first two races, have lunch an call it a day. Sure enough, by the time we got there it was merely overcast (see panoramic photo above taken before the opener). And the rain actually held off nearly the entire day. It did rain, but lightly a few times; the breeze blew it in on us so we moved up from our front row seats to the top row; but we ended up staying the day through the tenth race before heading out just as the rain started to come down steadily. I had handicapped the Gulfstream card, but I'd also made selections for Aqueduct, Laurel, Tampa, and the Fair Grounds. Because we were hosting our friends (and Kim was along I decided that I would not have a "typical" day of racing where I am up and down from my seat and watching races on the simulcast screens. So before we left I made all my off-track bets online and planned to play just Gulfstream live. I also made myself the promise that I would not watch any of the races nationally until we got home.
Here's how the day turned out........before everyone showed up Kim and I were greeted at our seats by our friendly ticket taker who now knows us. And as is our "tradition" I asked her to take our photo which she obliged (note Kim's horse-themed shirt!). It was about fifteen minutes before post time when Sue, Dan, & Lori arrived. The girls went off to the shops and casino while Dan and I made our bets on the opener. The first race at Gulfstream was a Maiden Special event for two-year-olds on the turf. As soon as I'd seen the conditions I remembered that last year the first race on Opening Day was a MSW turf event for 2yo and I won with Todd Pletcher's entry. I looked for a Pletcher runner, but none were in the main body, so I liked the improving Giant Run. But if this race were washed off the turf, then my top pick would be Main Track Only Stradivari who was sent out by......TODD PLETCHER! So when we got to the track and I check the scratches I was not at all disappointed that this turf event was off the grass and moved to the main track. As I looked at the scratches I made the on-track decision to double my bet. Stradivari pressed the leader in perfect striking position to midway on the turn. When John Velazquez shook the reins, he took off, quickly opening up by daylight and was LONG GONE! WHOOOO HOOOO! One race, one win - just like last year.
I had posted a preview video on Facebook where I'd noted that I often had success on Opening Day, and here I was living up to my predictions! When I'd handicapped the card there were two "best" bets I'd listed. My "Bet of the Day" had been in the 6th, a Claiming Crown sprint, and my co-best bet where I planned to invest just a touch less, was in the second race, a Maiden Special for 2yo where I had picked Todd Pletcher's debuting sprinter, Zulu. But for the past day and a half I'd gone back and forth about how I planned to play these two races. For this race, I kept thinking that THIS was the spot to make my BET of the Day because I was more certain about Pletcher having his first timer cranked up than in the other race. I discussed this with Dan after the first race win, and told him once I'd made my final decision, that I was making this my BET of the Day. He said, "....that's good, because this is the race I put the most money on your pick!" The crowd was also savvy to Zulu's ability, and/or the fact that it's Gulfstream - Todd Pletcher - Maiden First Time Starter. Much like the opener Zulu was ridden by John Velazquez, and he pressed the pace to the top of the lane. But unlike that first race, when Zulu burst to the front, the second place horse ran with him. I wasn't really worried at any point, but he was not clear until deep stretch when he edged clear.
The price was a fair 3/5 number - paid $3.20 and so I was cashing for well over $30! TWO-for-TWO! I LOVE GULFSTREAM in the winter! While I'd considered it a few times prior to now, it was in between the second and third races that I reflected on how glad I was to be back handicapping regularly. After the "Road to the Breeders' Cup" project and daily handicapping at Woodbine prior to the Breeders' Cup weekend, I'd been taking a break from handicapping. And by the beginning of last week I was anxious to begin again - which was the whole point of the break.....I wanted to be fresh and excited to tackle this four month meet. The third was the Claiming Crown Tiara, going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Last year I'd liked Wild Swava and she'd not won. She was back today and got top Gulfstream rider Javier Castellano. Prior to the race I told Dan how ironic it was that there were two rock solid angles to playing Gulfstream - play Todd Pletcher's horses, and we were 2-for-2 with his first two (and he only had one more the rest of the day); and to play Javier Castellano. As it turned out he won FOUR races on the day, all stakes events! Unfortunately this was not one of them. Wild Swava rallied from off the pace, but ran evenly through the lane at odds of 5/2, third. IN the fourth I gave the upset nod to Saturday Special in the Iron Horse going 8 1/2 panels. He never fired, sixth at 4/1 odds. The off and on rain throughout the week had led management to take both turf sprints off the grass and the opener; but they left the two routes on the grass. So the fourth, the Claiming Crown Distaff Dash was now on the main track and my pick was a "turf only" selection. The girls were back with their packages and we decided that after the fourth - with no pick in the fifth - it was a good time to go have our lunch at our favorite restaurant, The Yardhouse. While enjoying our meal the sixth race came up, the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. This was the "other race" where I'd initially made Stallwalkin Dude my Bet of the Day. As I explained to Dan, the Claiming Crown stakes races were originally designed to be a "Breeders' Cup for the working class" horses of the industry. So this one, like the others, required that you'd run for a $25K tag or less since 2014. When I handicap these races the kind of horse I'm looking for is one that meets the conditions BUT has since gone on to run against far better; and if possible I look for horses that have actually run in stakes events. Such was the case with Stallwalkin Dude. Check out his pps.......
Yes, he was exiting not only stakes races, but had run in the BREEDERS' CUP and had just missed in a Grade 1 three back! The highlights point out these races. But I had mixed feelings. As I wrote in my analysis, normally I'd look to play AGAINST this one because since that near miss in Grade 1 company in the Vosburgh his Beyer speed figures had declined; AND he was beaten by three plus lengths last time out by one of today's rivals, who I anticipated would be the post-time favorite (and he was). But balancing that out was the fact that today Javier Castellano was taking over. You know that Castellano had his pick of horses today, and that he landed here was huge. So I made him my BEST BET. But my hesitations were compounded when both of the online handicappers picked the favorite. Hmmmmm. So I made the decision to promote Zulu up, but because I still thought with Castellano up he stood a good shot, I only dropped Stallwalkin Dude down one notch on the investment scale. We had ordered and were awaiting our food as they approached the gate. I could see the race on the TV in the restaurant, but considered excusing myself to go out to the rail. But in the end I decided to stay. As they came out of the turn the favorite, Trouble Kid hooked up with Stallwalkin Dude and the two drew clear of the field. At the furlong pole 'Kid put his head in front and I thought that might be it, but Castellano would not let the Dude give up and he urged him for more. They were head-bobbing again at the 16th pole and in the final 100 yards Castellano pushed Stallwalkin Dude to the front! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
Best of all, he'd gone off at a generous 2/1 and paid $6.40. NOW I wish I'd held strong on the prime time investment. But the triple bet still paid off with nearly $50 in winnings and we were all guaranteed a profit on the day! In the 7th race, the Glass Slipper we were going a one-turn mile and I liked 20/1 Elusive Harmony. I was surprised at the program odds, because she was a specialist at the distance (11/7-1-1). But it didn't matter because she scratched :( In the 8th I liked Officer Griffin on the turf for the Canterbury, a five furlong turf sprint, or off the turf - as it was today. He was bet down from 8/1 in the program to 3/1 at post time. He rallied late, but too late, third. The 9th was the Claiming Crown Express. Last year Loverbil had upset this field at 7/1. I thought he would be one of the favorites and my hunch was he would NOT repeat, but honestly he looked best of those line up today. Any chance he had ended when he broke about ten lengths behind the field. Sigh......made a strong middle move and I actually thought briefly he would blow by them all but at the top of the stretch he was done, checked in sixth. The 10th was off the turf, pass. We left before the finale, the $200K Claiming Crown Jewel. My pick - Freestyler - was 5/1 in the program, but when I watched the replay he was a big 9/1! Ran to those odds sadly, non-threatening sixth. So for the day on track I finished 3-for-8, which is a nice 37%, and had nearly $25 in profit. Once I got home I then logged into TwinSpires and watched the replays of my selections from around the country. Here's how they played out......
Opening Day Simulcast Selections
My first win off-track came in the second at Aqueduct. This was a nw1x entry level allowance going a one-turn mile. Todd Pletcher's Send It In had earned identical, back-to-back 86 speed figres which indicated a move forward today. Two back was a win and last out he was daylight clear of the show as a best-of-the-rest second at this level. Looked easily bst and he blew by them all at the top of the lane to score easily at even money. Right back in the next race on my sheet, the second at Tampa where I was playing the races at the Oldsmar track for the first time this year. This was a starter optional claiming event and I did NOT like the favorite. Instead I liked Likeuasafriend who was 9/2 in the program. Of those in the field only two had ever been over the unique, sandy track in Tampa and Likeuasafriend ws a perfect 2-for-2 here. Both wins she'd been the short-priced favorite and ran to her odds. Today she was making her first start of the year and she had a best-of-24 bullet work which to me indicated she still had an affinity for the surface. The gate sprung open and she burst to the front, quickly clear by daylight. When the field came to her on the turn she did not let them gain any ground. Then when they turned for home came the critical moment, the stalkers were in full flight to run her down, but her jockey asked for and she responded....first holding them at bay and then inside the final 16th she spurted clear to win going away. And best of all, she was 9/2 at post time paying $11.80! I only had the minimum but that was good enough to cash for almost $30. I didn't score another off-track win until the fifth at Tampa. Here we were on the turf going a full nine furlongs. ighthouse Sound had speed figures that were MULTIPLE lengths clear of his rivals today and had earned FIFTEEN wins over the turf, including three of his last four on grass. Top Tampa rider Antonio Gallarado was up and he showed a 34% win rate for trainer Jamie Ness. Mid pack to the turn Lighthouse Sound was four wide and fifth as they straightened for the sprint to the wire. Within a 16th of a mile he'd collared the leaders and then blew by to win going away. This was my "best" at Tampa, I'd tripled the bet. The even money post time odds earned me another $30. The feature at Aqueduct today was the Grade 3 Garland of Roses going six furlongs for fillies & mares. Room For me got what I called a "solid vote of confidence" to win. In her last three she'd raced in the Grade 1 Ballerina (3rd), the Grade 2 Gallan Bloom (beaten only three lengths), and he Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7th, beaten 5 3/4 lengths). The BC effort was deceptively good. She'd been in post twelve; was off slowly, parked EIGHT wide turning for home and still beat half the field. She looked MUCH the best to me. She stalked the leaders to the stretch and drew off handily here today.
She was my NY "best" and I cashed for almost $30 AGAIN! The feature at Laurel was the Willa On The Move Stakes and I was all over Lady Sabelia. She'd been one of my best bets on the Black Eyed Susan undercard when I was in Baltimore last May. That day she cruised to the front turning for home and was easily clear. But the rider, I thought, fell asleep at the furlong pole and did not even see the late running winner coming. When collared inside the final 200 yards it was too late and she was second. That same filly was in here today but I thought there was no way that same scenario would play out. Neither did the crowd who sent her off at 1/5 odds. She cruised past the leader turning for home and while she had to work to maintain her margin of victory she was two clear handily on the wire!
My prime-time investment earned another near $25 for my account. As I watched this race replay it was about 5:15 pm and the last selection on my sheet was the 9th from the Fair Grounds, set to go off at 5:21. So I flipped to the live screen view and went to New Orleans virtually to watch Tough Customer run in an entry level AOC race going 1 mile & 70 yards. She was the second choice at 8/5 and sat third to the top of the stretch. She moved off the rail three-wide and ran by the top two through the long Fair Grounds stretch. I'd doubled the bet so the $5.40 payout earned me nearly $30. For the day I was, including Gulfstream, an amazing 9-for-20 - that's 45% my friends! And I had earned well over $50 in profits. It's great to be back handicapping and in particular to have the Championship Meet at Gulfstream under way!
Best of all, he'd gone off at a generous 2/1 and paid $6.40. NOW I wish I'd held strong on the prime time investment. But the triple bet still paid off with nearly $50 in winnings and we were all guaranteed a profit on the day! In the 7th race, the Glass Slipper we were going a one-turn mile and I liked 20/1 Elusive Harmony. I was surprised at the program odds, because she was a specialist at the distance (11/7-1-1). But it didn't matter because she scratched :( In the 8th I liked Officer Griffin on the turf for the Canterbury, a five furlong turf sprint, or off the turf - as it was today. He was bet down from 8/1 in the program to 3/1 at post time. He rallied late, but too late, third. The 9th was the Claiming Crown Express. Last year Loverbil had upset this field at 7/1. I thought he would be one of the favorites and my hunch was he would NOT repeat, but honestly he looked best of those line up today. Any chance he had ended when he broke about ten lengths behind the field. Sigh......made a strong middle move and I actually thought briefly he would blow by them all but at the top of the stretch he was done, checked in sixth. The 10th was off the turf, pass. We left before the finale, the $200K Claiming Crown Jewel. My pick - Freestyler - was 5/1 in the program, but when I watched the replay he was a big 9/1! Ran to those odds sadly, non-threatening sixth. So for the day on track I finished 3-for-8, which is a nice 37%, and had nearly $25 in profit. Once I got home I then logged into TwinSpires and watched the replays of my selections from around the country. Here's how they played out......
My first win off-track came in the second at Aqueduct. This was a nw1x entry level allowance going a one-turn mile. Todd Pletcher's Send It In had earned identical, back-to-back 86 speed figres which indicated a move forward today. Two back was a win and last out he was daylight clear of the show as a best-of-the-rest second at this level. Looked easily bst and he blew by them all at the top of the lane to score easily at even money. Right back in the next race on my sheet, the second at Tampa where I was playing the races at the Oldsmar track for the first time this year. This was a starter optional claiming event and I did NOT like the favorite. Instead I liked Likeuasafriend who was 9/2 in the program. Of those in the field only two had ever been over the unique, sandy track in Tampa and Likeuasafriend ws a perfect 2-for-2 here. Both wins she'd been the short-priced favorite and ran to her odds. Today she was making her first start of the year and she had a best-of-24 bullet work which to me indicated she still had an affinity for the surface. The gate sprung open and she burst to the front, quickly clear by daylight. When the field came to her on the turn she did not let them gain any ground. Then when they turned for home came the critical moment, the stalkers were in full flight to run her down, but her jockey asked for and she responded....first holding them at bay and then inside the final 16th she spurted clear to win going away. And best of all, she was 9/2 at post time paying $11.80! I only had the minimum but that was good enough to cash for almost $30. I didn't score another off-track win until the fifth at Tampa. Here we were on the turf going a full nine furlongs. ighthouse Sound had speed figures that were MULTIPLE lengths clear of his rivals today and had earned FIFTEEN wins over the turf, including three of his last four on grass. Top Tampa rider Antonio Gallarado was up and he showed a 34% win rate for trainer Jamie Ness. Mid pack to the turn Lighthouse Sound was four wide and fifth as they straightened for the sprint to the wire. Within a 16th of a mile he'd collared the leaders and then blew by to win going away. This was my "best" at Tampa, I'd tripled the bet. The even money post time odds earned me another $30. The feature at Aqueduct today was the Grade 3 Garland of Roses going six furlongs for fillies & mares. Room For me got what I called a "solid vote of confidence" to win. In her last three she'd raced in the Grade 1 Ballerina (3rd), the Grade 2 Gallan Bloom (beaten only three lengths), and he Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7th, beaten 5 3/4 lengths). The BC effort was deceptively good. She'd been in post twelve; was off slowly, parked EIGHT wide turning for home and still beat half the field. She looked MUCH the best to me. She stalked the leaders to the stretch and drew off handily here today.
She was my NY "best" and I cashed for almost $30 AGAIN! The feature at Laurel was the Willa On The Move Stakes and I was all over Lady Sabelia. She'd been one of my best bets on the Black Eyed Susan undercard when I was in Baltimore last May. That day she cruised to the front turning for home and was easily clear. But the rider, I thought, fell asleep at the furlong pole and did not even see the late running winner coming. When collared inside the final 200 yards it was too late and she was second. That same filly was in here today but I thought there was no way that same scenario would play out. Neither did the crowd who sent her off at 1/5 odds. She cruised past the leader turning for home and while she had to work to maintain her margin of victory she was two clear handily on the wire!
My prime-time investment earned another near $25 for my account. As I watched this race replay it was about 5:15 pm and the last selection on my sheet was the 9th from the Fair Grounds, set to go off at 5:21. So I flipped to the live screen view and went to New Orleans virtually to watch Tough Customer run in an entry level AOC race going 1 mile & 70 yards. She was the second choice at 8/5 and sat third to the top of the stretch. She moved off the rail three-wide and ran by the top two through the long Fair Grounds stretch. I'd doubled the bet so the $5.40 payout earned me nearly $30. For the day I was, including Gulfstream, an amazing 9-for-20 - that's 45% my friends! And I had earned well over $50 in profits. It's great to be back handicapping and in particular to have the Championship Meet at Gulfstream under way!
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