Another WINNING Day!
The Friday card provided my Gulfstream Handicapping Project with three more winners this afternoon as I was "at the track" virtually today while continuing to allow my surgical procedure to heal. Felt much better today and am very hopeful that this continues at this rate. The ten race card yielded selections when I'd completed the handicapping analysis and things got started right away in the opener. A one mile turf claiming event I liked what was the likely post time favorite Viva Bertha who was sent out by Peter Walder with Javier Castellano on board. With the inside draw Castellano sent her right to the front, but she was hounded from the get-go. But when they turned into the lane Viva Bertha and the 10/1 longshot had separated themselves by daylight for the sprint to the wire. I felt pretty confident that I had the winner. But instead it was the outsider that finished best and I ran a close second. A closer was flying late and I thought I was third, but the photo revealed that it was a Dead Heat for the place, not that it really mattered to me. Was glad I'd only made a minimum bet. In the second we were back on the grass, this time with a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs. I went against the obvious favorite from the Christophe Clement barn. Just not a fan when a horse does not run well at GPW before moving here. Instead I went with Mark Casse's Moonlight Bandit who was 6/1 in the program. Casse had been on fire at the Keeneland Fall meet and his horses ran very well at the Breeders' Cup. I have had the feeling - especially after handicapping daily at Woodbine from August through October where Casse is based - that he was bringing in several live runners to the Gulfstream Championship Meet. 'Bandit had only been on the turf three times. One was a marathon try which was an easy toss. The other two were in entry-level allowance company and he was a good third in both with speed figures good enough to win here. The drop in for a first time tag and first time conditioned company was the angle to bet on. My only concern was jockey Julian Leparoux who always seems to bring out his worst when on board my selections. But today Leparoux had Moonlit Bandit stalking in fourth through slow splits (:50 / 1:15) and then moved three-wide to challenge for the lead. As they sprinted home he wore down the front runner, who ironically was ridden by Castellano again!
Two significant items about the win - first the nice price of $6.60. But second was when I went to calculate the payoff on my bet I noted that in my original analysis I had listed the bet as a $5 minimum play. But I had been thinking all along it was a double investment. Maybe I was thinking this because it was the #10 horse. So I switched to the "Recall Today's Bets" screen and to my surprise, and delight, I HAD bet a double investment so I would be cashing for over $33! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I passed the third where I didn't like any of the 2-lifetime turf routers. In the fourth I felt confident in my pick of Saffron Hall from the Michael Maker barn, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and ridden by Javier Castellano. My second choice was Golden Rifle. Right out of the gate Golden Rifle dumped his jockey and much like last week the loose horse came up between runners and forced Castellano to drift out several paths with Saffron Hall. Once clear he got that one back in striking position and was right there in third turning for home. But he ran evenly to the wire. Did that early trouble cost him? My feeling was it SHOULD have but I didn't think he'd have won even with a clean trip. In the fifth we were still on the inner course with a MSW contest. Ras Abrouq was my minimum bet and I was surprised that Ron Nicoletti had singled this one on his early Pick-5 ticket. I considered upping the investment, but decided against it. At 5/2 he made a strong middle move and then stopped like he was shot fading terribly to twelfth and last. The sixth was a claiming event going a one-turn mile. I REALLY liked All Over It, another Peter Walder-Javier Castellano runner. First, as with any one-turn mile race, I think horses who have won at a one-turn mile hold a distinct edge over any who have not; it's just a very unique kind of race. Even more so if the win at a one-turn mile is on the track we are running at today. All Over It held TWO wins here at GP at a one-turn mile, and the first was an 18 length blowout maiden win. The other was a daylight score against $30K "beaten" claimers. Today he'd face $12.5K "beaten" company. Duh. I was delighted that the crowd let him go off at even money. He went right to the front, dueled from the get-go and was finally able to edge clear late, my second winner on the day!
My triple investment meant I'd cash for a cool $30 on my second winning selection. The 7th was a maiden claiming event going seven furlongs. Like any maiden event at Gulfstream the first and most important question was, is there a Todd Pletcher runner. Sure enough, but interestingly neither John Velazquez or Javier Castellano were riding. But Luis Saez is a very good jockey, not only here but on the national stage. Sometimes that means a more than fair price for a Pletcher runner. Vinny White Shoes was the pick debuting today for the Starlight Stables. The fact he'd been a $300K Keeneland Sales purchase told me somebody thought he had ability. Despite the fact that Pletcher showed only a 7% DRF win percentage with first time maiden claimers I still preferred him over what looked to me like a very ordinary group. Saez had him mid-pack to the far turn then eased him out three-wide for clear run. He caught the front-runner at the 16th pole and edged clear in a driving finish. As Saez walked his mount into the winner's circle track announcer told the crowd this was the jockey's FOURTH win of the day, and we're only six races into the card! As I looked ahead to the ninth race - no selection in the eighth - I considered that I was already 3-for-6 on the day, well ahead and guaranteed a big winning day, and I had yet to see my BET of the Day run! When they were in the paddock for the ninth both Gabby Gaudet, the new hot handicapping gal on track, and Ron Nicoletti thought that even at 1/9 odds, Todd Pletcher's Destin just laid over the field. Gaudet also talked about how good he looked physically and how confident he looked. Top rider Javier Castellano sealed what looked like a done deal. Fortunately he floated up to 1/5 at post time and he broke sharply. A 25/1 longshot on the inside went to the front of this one-turn mile and Castellano had the favorite perfectly positioned. The first red flag went up when the leader was in front by two and the opening fraction was posted in a slow :25 and change. One-turn mile events often have very quick opening fractions and this did NOT bode well for me unless Destin was indeed so much better than the rest of these as his odds reflected. The second red flag, and a GIANT red flag went up when as they moved through the turn the leader's rider hadn't moved a muscle and it was clear that Castellano was pushing Destin vigorously to try and make up some ground. As they turned for home he was gradually narrowing the gap but he was never going to catch the winner. Wow, what a major disappointment. But still, for the day I was 3-for-7, over 40%, and even with the "BET of the Day" loss I finished nearly $30 ahead on the day. You ALWAYS have to be happy about that at the tough Gulfstream meet, especially on a week day! Even with the stakes action and nice weather expected for tomorrow I've decided that it would be a much wiser decision for me to stay home and continue to heal before we head out on our two week adventure up north next Wednesday.
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