Jan. 27-29, Days 36-38

THREE BEST BETS Carry Week-Day Racing Results

Wednesday January 27
The weather forecast called for a 90% chance of thunderstorms, including severe weather and they were right on the money as a tornado touched down just north of here and we got close to four inches of rain.  But despite the gloomy weather - including rain in Hallandale - all the turf races were actually run on the grass!  Of those scheduled for the grass I had only one selection for the turf.  In another I had a MTO pick, which obviously scratched.  In the first selection of the day, I went with the favorite, Trouble Kid, who was a graded stakes winner and looked to be the speed of the race from the rail in an allowance test.  He was pressed from the opening bell but seemed to put away the longshot pace rival in deep stretch, but that one would not go away, and in spite of the barn's lowly win percentage, the longshot was up in a photo finish over the prohibitive 1/2 favorite and my top choice. 

In the fifth it was much the same story for my choice, Two Times Book.  He was sent off as the 3/2 favorite, he was on the lead being pressed by a price play runner, and he was caught in deep stretch and I was second AGAIN.  But fortunately my BET of the DAY was the one doing the best running late.  In the 9th it was a six furlong sprint for Maiden Special sophomores, and there looked to be at least five very talented runners in the lineup.  But I really liked Grey Glory.  This colt had been a good second - with the best last-race figure - in his debut behind Deep Sea.  Deep Sea had been my "BET of the Day" after he had debuted at Churchill and dueled through wicked fractions before being a best-of-the-rest second.  He came back here and drew off without any problem over Grey Glory.  He had set the pace to the turn and while no match for Deep Sea, he was easily clear of the rest of the field.  As they approached the gate I was amazed, but delighted that Grey Glory was 2/1 on the board.  As they went into the gate he was 9/5 and still I was salivating.  But when they hit the far turn and he moved up three wide the odds showed 6/5 as he took a lot of money.  The three turned for home together, but the rail runner dropped out and when they hit the sixteenth pole, only Grey Glory was kicking it into high gear.  WHOOO HOOOO.

Though he was my lone winner on the day (1-for-4 with two seconds - the turf runner in the finale was 5th at 7/1 odds) allowed me to cash for over $100 and show a flat-bet profit on the day!

Thursday January 28
Whereas Wednesday had a lot of rain and gloomy skies, Thursday was a deluge of rain.  All turf races were washed off, but I still had eight live selections from the eleven race card.  I ran second when flying at the finish I the second with At Large who was WAY too far back to have a realistic chance and then stopped badly as the 7/5 favorite when former Sunshine Millions Classic winner Sr. Quisqueyano dropped in for a first time tag - faded to fifth.  But I scored with my triple investment in the 4th with Todd Pletcher's General A Rod.  As a 3yo he'd been on the Derby trail for trainer Michael Maker and had actually run in all three legs.  But after not having any success he was moved to the Pletcher barn and he scored in his first start for "the Man" in Tampa's Challenger Stakes last winter.  But again he could not win.  Today he was coming off another freshening and dropped into a stakes-quality allowance field with a $100K Optional Claiming price.  He was either much the best or figured to be washed up - literally :)   I went with the former.  He tracked a loose-on-the-lead longshot into the turn and just as I began to wonder if he'd be able to catch him he closed ground, blew by and ran away by some seven widening lengths.  He just missed setting a track record for the 8 1/2 furlong distance!

Ultra-impressive and I was cashing for a cool $30.  I ran second and third at 6/5 and 9/5 in the next two but that brought me to the BET of the Day in the 8th.  I didn't care if it was a turf route or a dirt route, A Place To Shine was first off the claim for Michael Petro and owner Frank Calabrese, a huge 48% winning angle.  He tracked the pace into the turn and drew off by FIFTEEN under a hand ride from jockey Paco Lopez the entire trip.  WOW.  He'd been 2/1 as they went into the gate and I was salivating with thoughts of a big score.  But by the time they hit the far turn the late money had knocked him down all the way to 6/5.  Still, I'll take the over $40 return.

I was a distant 7th in both the 10th and 11th with horses that were 3/1 and 2/1.  But, I enjoyed the day in spite of the 2-for-8 results as my two BEST bets both won impressively.

Friday January 29
With tomorrow being Holy Bull Day and I knew I'd have a full slate of races I didn't think I'd go out to the track today.  But when I was done handicapping the card I had bets in the first two races and then nothing until the 6th - IF we stayed on the turf.  With Kim heading over to Englewood to visit her family I decided it would be a great day to go and enjoy the cool weather.  So I went for a 3+ mile walk and then drove out to Gulfstream.  In the opener Boom Boom Frankie was a 6x winner facing a field full of single and double race winners.  He was 8/5 at post time - trailed the field from the opening of the gate until crossing the wire dead last.  WOW.  But the race I was here for was the second.  This was a starter optional claiming event going seven furlongs and I had Moonshine Promise as my BET of the DAY.  She'd won the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper two back for a $100K pay day then romped handily in starter company like this last time out.  With top jockey Javier Castellano she figured to be odds on, but I love to have a big bet on a runner I'm watching run live.  It's always more about being right, and especially putting up the money to back my confidence more than the profit level.  From the first dollar bet Moonshine Promise was 1/9 on the board.  With one minute to post I was hoping maybe late money from the "value" bettors would let her float up to 1/5, and sure enough there were enough of those to let her hit those odds as they gates opened.  I was more than content with that as a fair price.  But as I watched the jumbotron and they hit the far turn, it looked to me like the little chicklet did not have a 1-5 figure, but instead, could that be a 2-5?  NO way they'd let her get away at that price, this is stealing!  Sure enough, as she rolled home I could see the odds clearly - my $50 WIN bet would get me a $20 profit and I'll be a winner for the day!

In the featured 10th it was unbeaten Shagaf from the Chad Brown barn vs. Todd Pletcher's Rally Cry.  I went back and forth, but stuck with the Pletcher colt.  He was making his move up the rail when a 20/1 horse cut him off not once, but twice forcing him to drop to last into the turn.  He rallied wide to be a respectable third as Shagaf won handily under a smooth trip.  If I were Pletcher I'd never let Luis Saez (rider of the longshot) on one of my horses again - well for a long time at least.  Cost Rally Cry big time.  Still, I enjoyed the day and am looking forward to tomorrow's big day of racing!

Jan 22 - 24: Days 33 - 35

Weekend Racing Recap

It was a wild weather weekend and that certainly impacted the racing to some degree.  After a gorgeous day Thursday the weather prognosticators were very accurate in predicting a torrential downpour on Friday; then on Saturday the weather cleared, but was cool.  And on Sunday we woke up to temperatures in the low 40s.....that is cold in Florida my friend.

Friday January 22

Three of the first four races for Friday were originally scheduled for the grass, and all were taken off leading to a lot of changes.  But, I didn't have a pick in the dirt opener, and of the three turf events I only had made a single selection, who scratched.  Buy I did have investment selections in the final six races on the card.  In the fifth I liked Miss Deja Vu ONLY if it was moved to the main track.  Sent out by Peter Walder with Javier Castellano on boar she was 7/2 at post time, led to mid-stretch and gave way while drifting out - a fading fifth.  In the sixth Cool Man Walkin was a GP 40% Club play for trainer Saffie Joseph with Castellano.  Sent out at 2/1 he was outsprinted early and chased the lone speed all the way around the track, third.  In the 7th I really liked Don's Girl who was probably NOT a good bet.  In BOTH of her last starts she'd been loose on the lead and got run down.  As Keith always says, "a quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter."  But I took a chance today because not only were her last two figures better than any lifetime number of her rivals but she was literally the ONLY front runner in the field.  Led into the stretch after setting a moderate pace, but faded again to 4th at even money.  In the 8th I really liked Blame Jim from the Todd Pletcher barn.  So did the crowd as he was the big 6/5 favorite.  He pressed the pace into the turn, then just stopped, seventh.  This day is NOT going as I'd seen it!  In the 8th I would FINALLY get into the winner's circle. 

Orsorno was my "best" of the day in a maiden claimer for older.  Last time out, in his debut, he'd had a troubled start, but recovered and cleared the field to lead into the stretch.  There he was run down by a Pletcher colt - who was my pick that day - but held on to be second while nearly three clear of the show runner.  Second time starting maidens win at a big 31% for trainer Ralph Nicks so I expected an even better effort from Orsorno with jockey Joel Rosario up.  He was pressured from the start, but edged clear as they moved into the lane, but then he was caught again and forced to duel the length of the stretch on the inside......JUST hung on to win at 4/5 odds.  I closed the day out with my second consecutive win where my pick was strictly a main-track selection.  Super C Me had won five of his last six, and all of them had been on the front end, on the dirt.  The wide draw would make getting to the lead more difficult IF the field remained intact.  AND there was other speed to the inside.  I was hopeful when I analyzed the race that (a) it would come off the grass and (b) some of the inside speed would scratch.  Both came to pass and Super C Me was sent off at even money.  He was off a step slowly - that's not good - but quickly recovered and before they'd hit the first quarter pole he was in front by daylight.  As they came out of the turn the stalkers were making their move and I briefly thought he might be in trouble, but then he shifted into high gear and was L-O-N-G gone.  So for the day I was a solid 2-for-6 and was content with the results.

Saturday January 23

Today was one of the very few Saturdays that did NOT have multiple stakes races, and in fact had only a single stakes event.  So my plan was to stay home, scale back on the selections while looking over multiple fields, and make my trip to the track on Sunday when the weather looked to be very chilly - I wanted to enjoy the crisp weather outside.  So for today I only handicapped at Gulfstream and at Tampa where they had three stakes races.  In the end I only had the three added money events at Tampa as the rest did not appeal to me.  I thought that the races at Gulfstream would be back on the turf today with the spectacular South Florida sunshine, but I thought maybe the opener would come off to give the course a little added time to dry out.  I had picks for both the inner and outer courses.  I was spot-on with my thinking as the opener was the lone race taken off the turf.  I went with Toh's Grey Cat.  He was in post 14 but he is a pace-presser so that would play into his running style.  He salked to speed into the turn, opened up into the stretch, but was caught!  NO!  But inside the final 16th as announcer Larry Colmus was about to call the other horse a winner he surged to WIN!

 

Best of all he went off at a very juicy 4/1 price so with my double investment I was starting the day off by collecting $50!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  My selection scratched out of the second and I'd passed on the third through fifth.  In the sixth Kismet Heels was sent out by Todd Pletcher in a Maiden Special for 3yo on the turf.  Last time out he'd been my top pick in spite of another Pletcher runner, Gimlet being in the field that day.  Gimlet had been the favorite but it was Kismet Heels who was a sharp second.  I thought he'd improve today and I still didn't like Gimlet.  But as they came into the far turn BOTH Pletcher runners were making their move.  I was going to be wide, but Gimlet fanned about six or seven wide as he gathered momentum and I was forced at least eight wide into the lane.  I was surging late, but second behind the stable mate.  The seventh was on the turf and I debated not about who to bet, but how much.  Ousby had been visually impressive winning his debut when he drew off by at least a pole a month ago.  On that performance I thought he'd have no problems taking on winners next time out.  So here he was.  But instead of trying allowance rivals he was in a starter optional claiming event.  Hmmmm.  Not so much confidence by his connections?  Was I over-rating him?  I went back and forth and finally made him the minimum play.  The crowd had no such reservations and sent him off at even money.  He repeated that last out performance by just blowing the field away through the stretch.  Up the bet on him next time out! 

 

My last pick on the Gulfstream card was in the feature, the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens.  Charming Kitten was the OBVIOUS choice and class of the field, and he'd won at this marathon distance.  But NO ONE wanted the lead.  Just the kind of race where somebody could steal it at a fair price.  That looked to be Roccia d'Oro.  I was exacta-a-mundo in my analysis and he walked through opening fractions of :27 for the opening quarter, :54.3 for the first half mile; and a pokey 1:21 for six furlongs.  I'm home free at 5/1 I thought.  Nope.   'Kitten blew by in the stretch and I faded to fourth.  Oh, the Tampa races.....Cosmic Girl chased the 4/5 favorite all the way around the track in the seven furlong Gaspirilla Stakes for fillies; then Jay's Way was a big 6/1 in the colt's version, the Pasco, but faded to 4th after stalking the lone speed.  In the Wayward Lass Savings Plan was clearly the mare to beat and was the 7/5 favorite.  She was comfortably tracking the front running longshot (10/1) as the 7/5 favorite.  Speed rarely holds at Tampa, but when they turned for home Savings Plan could not make up any ground.....second.  So, it was a good day at Gulfstream 4/2-1-0 with a $25 profit, but the three Tampa races led me to a very small loss for the day and dropped my winning average.

Sunday January 24

OOOOOH it's chilly!  As I mentioned at the top, it was 42 degrees when we got up today.  And when I headed out to Gulfstream it was only in the mid-50s.  I kept thinking all day about our upcoming French River Cruise and the forecast is for this kind of weather.  Seems like it will be cold, but while at Gulfstream and being in the sun, it was very comfortable, so I think the temperatures will be ideal for our trip!  I had looked at Tampa, the Fair Grounds, and Oaklawn for some solid picks - I was very selective in my analysis.  And I did find two races at each to add to my sheet.  I had seven races from Gulfstream.  I'd gone back and forth about spending the day at the track, but in the end - after not liking a lot at the other tracks - it looked like I'd be standing around a lot.  So I picked to go out early for about two hours early in the card, enjoy the brisk weather and watch two live races.  Then come home and walk with Kim before settling in for the day.  The first pick on my sheet was the second from Tampa and after cashing my two winning tickets from Thursday I watched in the breezeway as Tonite Tonite wired the field at 2/1.  NICE - off to a great start!  In the second at Gulfstream I liked Crime Buzz, a GP 40% Club play on the turf.  Went off at a nice 5/2 and as they were leaving the gate Jeff called me.  He was on his way to the races, he'd not been since June when he and I went out for about an hour (Antoinette and the boys are in California).  I told him my picks were online if he wanted them.  Crime Buzz made a move on the turn, no late punch, 6th.  The last race I'd watch live was the third from Gulfstream where Todd Pletcher's first time starter, Vista Creek was the prohibitive 8/5 morning line choice.  Rarely are the favorites below 2/1 and especially as a first time starter.  The works were good, but not spectacular, what did "they" know that I didn't?  I would have made him the top choice anyway, but upped the bet to a triple investment.  He was hammered down to 4/5 at post time and broke on top from the rail.  He dueled to midway on the turn and then stopped, fading to fifth and last.  I had decided to NOT make the rest of the day's bets with cash, but to used my twinspires account, so I headed for home (with the windows down!).  Jeff texted me as I was about to leave - he'd had $20 to win on a Tampa winner that paid $27.40!  OH MY.  He texted, "maybe it's time to go home."  I encouraged him to stay, what the heck :)  He did and when dinner time rolled around and I was getting ready to watch my replays he called and told me he was about to walk out and at worst would be a $30 winner on the day.  Minutes later his text arrived, he'd had $35 to win on a $8 winner at Gulfstream (not a race I had a pick in) so he was leaving with a profit of over $150.  That's my son.  I sat down to watch my races and in the first of the events my pick Elnath rallied into the stretch - appeared to have no where to go, but SQUEEZED between horses at the sixteenth pole and was clear late to win! 

 

Too bad I only had the minimum on the 3/2 favorite.  Next on my sheet was the second from the Fair Grounds.  I'd bet on Voodoo Spell a few times before and he's a winning machine.  On turf or dirt, though I prefer him as a turf sprinter rather than a main track one, and today we were on the grass.  I would have made him a "prime time" play under normal situations, but sharp turf riding James Graham who had been the leading rider here last year, had just come back from trying the So Cal circuit.  You'd think that would have been a boost to his winning, but he was off to a 1-for-40 start in New Orleans.  Ouch.  When you're finding ways to lose, even with good horses you struggle.  So I only doubled the bet.  Sure enough, Vooodoo Spell had to check early, was between horses through the turn, and behind a wall of horses into the lane.  Luckily the stretch at the Fair Grounds is very long and when finally clear Voodoo Spell kicked it into high gear and got up in the shadow of the wire in spite of the troubled trip.  Only paid $3, but I'll take the $15 payout.  Next up the sixth from Gulfstream, a maiden claimer on the turf.  A whopping SEVEN horses entered in this event had all squared off on December 31 and that day Mind Magic had been the 4/5 favorite.  He'd rallied and cleared the other six while just missing by a neck.  Seemed obvious to me.  I should have bet more.  He glided up thru the turn and then ran away as TONS the best. 

 

The even money favorite meant I'd cash for $20.  My second race at Tampa saw my pick scratch.  The two Oaklawn races saw my first one finish third at a big 6/1 then favoried What A Shiner disappoint as a 4th place finisher while debuting at 4/5 odds.  At the Fair Grounds my second choice, Arch Rivalry led all the way on the grass, setting a slow :50 half mile split, but was nailed on the wire in a photo finish.  The 7th at Gulfstream saw 1/5 Flowers for Lisa fail again - that's it for her, luckily only the minimum today; and then Bride To Be led in mid-stretch at 3/1 in the 8th, but was caught - another second.  In the finale at Gulfstream Arghad laid over the field and was being bet that way at 3/5.  But the rider - after saving ground into the turn - made nothing but bad decisions and got trapped, checked, finally decided to go outside, but to do so had to take back to the rear of the field, then rallied six wide.  His sprint to the wire was breath-taking but so far back he had no chance, my third consecutive runner-up finish of the day locally.  For the day I was a high percentage 4-for-12, but the races where I had the more money invested were not the ones I won.  Still, for the week I was a good 30/10-8-2.  Looking forward to next Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes card, our first glimpse at the three-year-olds pointing for the Derby and the Oaks.  I would be remiss if I also did not mention our Florida Panthers.  Since Thanksgiving our 'Cats have gone 20-6-1 and have moved into a solid first place position - Stanley Cup here we come.  But this weekend we were coming off of a 4-game losing skid to face the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks on Friday and then cross-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning, who'd played Chicago in the Cup finals last June on Saturday night.  We had an amazing three-goal burst in the first period, including the last one with 2.1 seconds on the clock to dominate Chicago 4-0 and then used a four-goal outburst in the second period to dump the Lightning 5-2.  It was the first time in 25 years that an NHL team had beaten the two Cup finalists from the previous year in back-to-back nights.  And, more importantly, Tampa had won seven in a row and had closed to within a point of us on Thursday.  The win Friday over Chicago gave us a small three point lead, but a loss would have dropped the lead to one - but the win gave us a big cushion of five points as we near the All-Star break.  AND the area - sell-out crowds BOTH nights, nearly 40,000 people came to see hockey over the weekend with us!

 

Week Seven Racing RecapJune 21-24

Jan 21 - Day 32

On Track - BIG WIN!

A short week of racing following the special holiday card on Monday, and it's a rare Saturday - for this time of year - without a graded stakes, and in fact one stakes event here locally.  I wanted to come out today as the weather called for nice weather today and nationally they are anticipating multiple FEET of snow through fifteen states.  Living in Florida, retired and live racing at Gulfstream - I'm there!  So prior to handicapping the card I was hopeful I could find either back-to-back races or two races in a three race sequence that would make for a good outing.  Fortunately for me the way the selections fell, I had picks in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and then the 7th.  So I decided to head out for the first five races.  But first on the agenda for the day was to cash in my tickets from Saturday (see photo at left).  I was able to collect nearly $300 to add to my bankroll as I started the new week.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  The opener on this Thursday afternoon, under partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures in the upper 70s was a Maiden Claiming sprint going 5 1/2 furlongs.  Everyone was certain to be all over the program favorite.  But he'd debuted three back with a "big" 3 Beyer - that's right, THREE.  I just can't bet that kind of "talent.  The third choice had two figures in the 20s and was making his first start for a barn that was 2-for-39.  I liked the second choice, a first-time starter for a small barn that was winning with a 22% average, albeit a small sample.  Javier Castellano was up on the son of champion Super Saver.  But as the gates opened immediately Larry Colmus called, "Big Saver hesitated at the start."  At the opening quarter he was FIFTEEN lengths behind.  He was flying late - one to watch down the road - and blew by all of the others but fell short by about a length to the 4/5 favorite.  In the second, a MSW on the turf I went with a Chad Brown first time starter, again with Javier Castellano.  They were winning at a near-40% average this winter.  But again the gates opened and Colmus said, "Warranty breaks slowly and is at the back."  WOW.  He made a belated gain to make the losing distance smaller, but was still 6th.  I passed on the third race.  I was passing the time enjoying the weather and I'd taken my notebook with all the information on our upcoming Viking River Cruise to France.  VERY much looking forward to that.  I sat in the paddock until the horses came into the walking ring for the fourth, this was my "BEST" of the day.  Penwith was the top choice in this one-turn mile being run under allowance conditions.  The big negative was that Penwith had not been seen in ELEVEN months!  But, not to worry, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is a 26% winner with long layoff types and you score a flat-bet profit on his runners like that.  He always has good stock as he's the trainer for international powerhouse Godolphin Stables.  Penwith's past performances showed all eleven of her career starts and when I looked at it something remarkable leaped off the page.  After a sprint debut she'd run in ten route races.  In seven of those she'd been in stakes company - and ran credibly with two thirds and a second.  But in the three NON-STAKES tries she WON ALL THREE!  Today was a non-stakes event - BINGO!  In addition it looked to me like she was the LONE speed of the race.  I had planned to triple the bet, but I decided to up it to a "prime-time" play.  The crowd settled on three of the short field of five to concentrate their betting dollars on.  And Penwith was NOT the favorite, but second choice at 8/5.  The gates opened and jockey Joel Rosario let her settle in the "garden spot," third behind dueling front runners.  I was encouraged by how easily she was running and the fact that the horse the crowd had settle on was at least a half dozen lengths behind Penwith.  Through the turn Rosario waited patiently and as they began to spin out of the turn he easily glided her outside and into the clear.  He never went to the whip, just gave her the cue and rode her with a vigorous hand ride as she blew by and won comfortably to the rallying favorite! 

WHOOOO HOOOO!  The winning ticket is worth over $50 and I'll be a winner today! I was thinking after the race that on weekdays when I come out like this, it's all about (a) being ABLE to come out because I'm retired; (b) being able to enjoy gorgeous winter weather here in Florida; and (c) to cash on a "BET of the DAY" kind of selection.  That's all it takes to make me consider it a great day.  In the fifth we were back on the turf and it looked to be wide, wide open.  I went with Nomnative who went off at a 9/2 price.  He was way back as they approached the far turn, but was starting to pick off runners.  He made a strong finish to just miss by less than a length and a half in a four-horse blanket finish (4th).  I only had the one more bet and I wasn't going to wait around for an hour to watch one race AND run the risk of hitting rush hour traffic.  So I made my final bet and headed to the car.  I checked my Fitbit and discovered I'd logged about two miles on this short day at the races and while I wished it was more, it was a good day's exercise.  Decided that I didn't need to walk when I got home, I'd just enjoy the afternoon.  When I got home it was two minutes to post time for the 7th where I'd made my final bet, so I opened the live feed and watched.  This was a 7 1/2 furlong turf race for Maiden Special Weight older horses.  The automatic play with sophomores (and with 2yo runners in December) is a Pletcher runner.  With older it's a little more dicey.  But it WAS a Pletcher runner that drew my interest.  First of all, Old Sport had to be a disappointment so far to his connections.  The son of champion War Front - who gets LOTS of turf winners - had cost $425K at the Keeneland sales.  But in four efforts he had only a second and a third to show for his work.  But, BOTH of his best races came here.  In his most recent, here off a short layoff, he'd led gate to final jump while finishing open lengths clear of the show runner.  Neither of the top two "go-to" riders for the top trainer were named, but to be fair, Joel Rosario had been up last time and the barn honored the commitment to ride him back  Because he was coming back today after another short break of 31-to-60 days Old Sport was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for the Pletcher barn.  Right out of the gate, unlike his rival rider Castellano, Rosario had his horse sharply away and right up on the hip of the longshot leader.  He pressed the easy pace into the far turn, and then, as he'd done with Penwith he asked for run.  As they came out of the turn and into the stretch Old Sport had made the lead, but he drifted out about two paths losing ground AND opening a seam to the post-time favorite - my second choice.  That one even got his head in front as they hit the sixteenth pole, but Rosario kept riding hard and Old Sport found one more gear and kicked away late to win by a little more than a length!  NICE! 

And best of all, he'd been a generous 5/2 at post time, so the $7.40 payoff meant my second winning ticket would be worth nearly $40 and I'd be collecting close to $100 when I next head out to Gulfstream Park!

Thursday January 21 Recap

Jan. 17, 18 - Days 30-31

A Pletcher Maiden Carries The Day!

Sunday January 17

After the big day yesterday on Sunshine Millions Day, the weather forecast proved accurate as overnight and into the early morning hours the torrential rains came down and near-hurricane force winds (cause a LOT of damage on the west coast of Florida).  There were obviously changes as the races came off the turf and scratches ruled the day.  I had some initial thoughts that maybe I should just sit the day out because of the weather and the changes, but I still had three races that were scheduled originally for the main track where I had picks, so I stuck with those three.  Should have listened to my intuition as I went 0-for-3 on the day.  In the 4th Jolly Dancer was WAY back and was running late, but was a non-threatening third at 6/5.  In the 7th Todd Pletcher's Zambian Dream had "the look" of an runner that would improve here.  The crowd sent him off at 6/5, but he too was only third best.  And finally, I closed the day out with a GP 40% Club play for the Pletcher barn with Broadway Gal in a nw1x allowance for 3yo fillies.  She was a big 8/1, but was a non-threatening third.

Monday January 18

The weather cleared and a cold front had come through plummeting the Florida temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s.  The rain had soaked the course, but the great track crew had it ready for racing - but to give it a little more time to dry out they took the early turf race - the 5th - off the inner course but left the rest on throughout the latter part of the card.  When I'd handicapped the card I felt like the racing secretary had put out the word that if you've struggled and have horses that have run poorly, today is your day.  Seemed like every race was full of horses with slow figures, inconsistent if not simply bad form, trained by conditioners who had very low percentages for the most part.  No picks in the first or second, but in the third, a bottom level maiden claimer for older I had what looked like a solid winner.  Frank's Star looked truly formidable, but was certain to be bet to odds on.  He was 4/5 in the program and had run a gigantic 85 Beyer in his debut last year.  Then he was a good 4th with a 62 Beyer in his second start.  BOTH of these were in MSW company.  Today he was plummeting to a $12.5K maiden claimer.  Owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Mike Petro do this all the time - their philosophy is they just want to win races, so they will drop their runners to a spot where they aren't competitive, but should be standouts.  The way they play the game is they will gladly take the winner's share of the purse and cash in on the claiming sale, then go get another runner to add to their big stock of claiming runners.  Like most Calabrese runners there was no fear of the layoff, Frank's Star had fired a best-of-62 bullet work a month ago.  He was 4/5 as they approached the gate and I was salivating over that price; then 2/5 at the first call, but as they hit the far turn he was 1/5.  Jockey Paco Lopez had him well in hand throughout the race and won as easily as a 1/5 runner should, just coasting home by daylight. 

My triple investment generated a return of nearly $20.  No pick in the 4th where there were nine slow, bad basement level maidens.  In the fifth, the one race that was taken off the turf, I had liked Todd Pletcher's Golden Delicious.  I was actually glad that this was moved to the main track because the one area where Pletcher is not quite as good as in all other categories is on the turf; so when this became a 5 furlong dirt sprint I had no problem sticking with him.  For some reason the crowd was all over another runner and bet him down to even money.  That one was dueling with another front runner as they entered the stretch.  Golden Delicious was shifting out three wide for clear run, but was some three or four lengths off the leaders at the furlong marker.  He was gaining, but still at least a length back at the 16th pose.  But visually you could see him find another gear and he blew by suddenly to win going away!  I was so very glad I stuck with my choice, because not only was he not the favorite, but he was a huge price (for a Pletcher 3yo maiden at Gulfstream)......

The $9.20 payoff combined with my typical double investment on Pletcher runners would get me nearly $50 back!  I'm a winner on the day!  I lost the last two.....I almost changed my bet in the 7th when Complicated was running on the turf for Shug McGaughey and Javier Castellano.  That's a big 44% GP Club play, but McGaughey was interviewed in the paddock and he remarked that they, "just hoped to get a good race into her to set her up for something later."  That doesn't sound convincing.  But sometimes trainers are really conservative with their remarks to guard against losing for the owners reactions.  She made a strong bid, took the lead, but was tired in the final 100 yards and was a close third.  In the 11th Ramble was another GP 40% Club play on the turf.  Ran a dismal 6th as the 6/5 favorite.  But, I was happy with the 4/2-0-1 day with a clear profit.  For the week my totals were:

58 Selections / 20 WINS - 16 2nds - 7 thirds

34.5% WINS - Profit Of Nearly $175

Week 6 Highlights

Jan. 16 - Day 29

OH MY!  WHAT A DAY!

If you had pulled me aside at about 3:45 pm and told me, "you're going to remember today as one of THE BEST days of the Gulfstream meet" I would have doubled over in laughter.  Why?  Because the from the first race at 12:05 until 4 pm when we were in the paddock before the 9th at Gulfstream my record for the day was 20 Selections / 4 WINS - EIGHT 2nd place finishes....ouch.  And then it all turned around, and in a hurry.  But first, here's how those first four hours played out.  Considering all the rain from Friday I was surprised, but very pleased that only the opener was coming off the turf.  Oh what a change from the days at Calder when rain two weeks ago would take us off the turf!  Today was a beautiful Saturday afternoon by contrast with crystal blue skies and plenty of sun while the mid-afternoon temperatures never got out of the mid-70s.  But, the rain had forced the opener off the turf and to the main track where we'd be going a one-turn mile.  My pick, Todd Pletcher's Tinto Mesa was bet down to 8/5 favoritism, which figured because he'd run equally well on the dirt.  But he weakened on the turn after a wide trip and faded to sixth.  The second at Gulfstream I tripled the bet on Pletcher's Lord Commander who was a nice 2/1 price.  He pressed to the turn, and like the opener, he too faded badly to sixth.  Inside to the simulcast televisions and my pick in Aqueduct's 2nd also faded to sixth at 5/1.  I passed the third at Gulfstream and then was disappointed when Royal Posse was only second best in Aqueduct's featured Jazil Stakes while chasing the loose-on-the-lead winner.  At Tampa I liked Rosa Carina who was 9/5 in the program for top jockey-trainer team of Antonio Gallarado and Jamie Ness.  But with two minutes to post Rosa was STILL 1/9; then she floated up to 1/5 and left the gate at 4/5.  Right out of the gate she dropped so far back she wasn't in the TV screen; and she did not appear in the screen until the rest of the field had turned for home and she was still running through the turn - a dismal 8th.  At Laurel Legal Precedent was the even-money program favorite after running a best-of-the-rest second in both career starts and with figures that would easily win.  But early in the betting he was NOT the favorite - that was the first red flag.  Dropped to 4/5 favoritism at post time and had the perfect trip tracking dueling front runners.....but could not catch the one that won the early battle, second.  I turned to the second page of my selection packet winless.  That's highly unusual and was cause for concern, I am not going to lie to you.  The fourth at Gulfstream was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds and of course I liked Todd Pletcher's Kinsley Kisses who was a big 5/1 in the program.  But when the odds shifted twenty minutes out to reflect the wagering he was the 6/5 favorite.  He wavered between 6/5 and 4/5 throughout the betting and you have to give me credit - winless after two hours at the races and I had enough confidence to up the investment from $10 to $15.  Kinsley broke sharp as a tack, dueled to the top of the stretch and then drew off as much the best!  WHOOOO HOOOOO I'm on the board! 

The $3.60 payoff resulted in a return of close to $30 and at that point I was just happy that I would no longer have to worry about spending the entire day draining my bankroll!  But the celebration was short-lived.  The 4th at Laurel was the Marshua for 3-year-olds and Lost Raven looked tons the best for Todd Pletcher and top Maryland rider Trevor McCarthy.  She'd set the pace in the Grade 2 Demoiselle last time out going nine furlongs and faded.  The return to sprinting where she was a perfect 2-for-2 was the ideal move.  The crowd sent her off at 1/2 odds.  She was behind horses to the stretch when McCarthy found a seam on the rail, burst through to the lead and was clear......only to be caught late, second.  I turned my attention to the Fair Grounds monitor and watched He'll Pay run second at 7/2.  Wow.  At Oaklawn, Tale of Honor was coming off a big layoff but first time for trainer Ingrid Mason here was a 35% win angle with a big $4.88 ROI.  The 6/1 price could be an Arkansas "day-maker," so I doubled the bet.  He was the co-second choice at 2/1 and faded after pressing for a half mile, sixth.  The stakes action was about to start at Gulfstream and first up was the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  Lori's Store was my pick.  The field was a combined 2-for-21 over the Hallandale grass while she was 3-for-9.  In addition she had FIVE 90 or better Beyers which were easily best of the field.  I planned to double the bet, but I decided to up it to a triple investment when I read she was the DRF "Best" of the day.  She stalked into the stretch, dueled to the 16th pole and edged clear late!  ANOTHER WIN (finally!). 

Like the first win of the day the price was small, only even money, but again I was just happy to have $30 back to work with as I try to get into a winning groove.  In the 6th at Gulfstream, the Sunshine Millions Sprint the choice was obvious - go with the "NOW" horse, speedy XYZ Jet who was the even money favorite; or the returning class of the race, Wildcat Red.  'Jet had smoked the Gr 3 Mr. Prospector in near record time while setting insane fractions loose on the lead.  Anything close to that kind of effort and the rest are running for second money.  But in my opinion, (a) that race was just way too good to be a "normal" effort and (b) I didn't think he'd get an uncontested lead unless he went way too fast early.  Either of those scenarios would set him up for a closer like Wildcat Red who got Javier Castellano.  XYZ Jet broke a step slowly, good for me while Wildcat Red broke sharply; 'Jet recovered and flew to the front.  When the opening quarter was posted at :21 and change and even more so when the half was a sensational :43 and change I knew I had him.  Slow start and absurd fractions, he'd never last.  Wildcat Red moved into second and.......XYZ Jet never stopped, winning comfortably while in hand in 1:08 and change.  WOW, what a performance.  Probably see him on Derby Day in a stakes and I'll have to decide if TWO monster performances means he's really that good or ready to bounce.  As I got read for the last race on the page I was ready for what I'd thought would be Trevor McCarthy's sweep of the sophomore sprint stakes at Laurel.  But Lost Raven had disappointed, what would happen in the colt version, the Frank Whitley Stakes, with Never Gone South?  He'd won his first two and then had back-to-back heart-breaking seconds, losing by less than a length.  His two back loss was to a colt named Awesome Speed who'd come back to romp in the Mucho Macho Man here at Gulfstream (as my choice!).  I tripled the bet.  Never Gone South went right to the front and was in hand.  Laurel fractions are slow because of short run-ups to the teletimer, but still the opening fraction was :23 and change, way too slow for this kind of sprinter - I'm coasting on the lead!  The half was in :47 and change, again way too slow to let me be loose on the lead.  As the field swung through the turn I could see all the other riders pumping their horses imploring them to catch me on the lead while McCarthy had yet to move.  Heads turned for home and McCarthy began working on Never Gone South.  He went from a length in front to about a dozen in the blink of an eye.  McCarthy saw the distance at the 16th pole and literally stood up through the final portion of the race - ULTRA impressive. 

Like the first two winners he was the short-priced favorite, so I wasn't going to make big money, but the $24 return was enough to keep me "in the game!"  I took my winning ticket to my favorite teller and asked for $20 to WIN on #5 at Gulfstream - Pure Sensation was my BET of the Day at Gulfstream in the Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint.  But then I saw the tote machine show "No Runner" and she said, "Sorry, the 5 is scratched."  Really, wow - this day is NOT going my way!  I took the cash and walked away looking at my analysis.  I had also liked Amelia's Wild Ride and with Pure Sensation out maybe I should bet him?  Then Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling came on with their pre-race analysis and BOTH liked Ameila's Wild Ride.  I started back to the window, then hesitated.  I thought, if I were at home I'd just draw a line through the race and move on.  But......no "buts" I told myself.  Patience Mark.  Your wins will come, if not today, another day.  Don't force the bet.  So I walked away......and watched Amelia's Wild Ride WIN at better than 2/1.  Sigh......as I walked down the steps to head inside for my next race I was reading a text from one of "my girls" that I was meeting this evening for drinks - former students Kimmy and Christie who are bringing their husbands to the Florida Derby to join our annual party - and I was thinking she'll say, "how did you do today" and I'll reply, I spent the day zigging when I should have been zagging - picking lots of second place horses and not betting on horses I thought would win.  Inside I watched the Sand Man run third at 7/2 at the Fair Grounds.  Then I KNEW I had a winner.  At Tampa Bali Strait looked MUCH the best in a MSW turf route for sophomores.  She went off at a big 5/2 price with top jockey Antonio Gallardo on board.  Right to the front and she was clear by two, but she was literally WALKING on the lead through a :49 half mile and 1:14 time for 3/4 of a mile.  Through the turn all the other riders were working hard and Gallardo was sitting still as a statute.  The second choice began to make up ground as they turned for home and now Gallardo asked......no response.  The other horse ran right by - second, again.  WOW.  Moments later I had Flatter's Secret at Laurel who was way, WAY back and rallied to be second.  This race though was one of the most weird finishes I've ever seen.  In deep stretch the #4 was clear by three or four when the horse drifted out to the middle of the track.  This is not typical, but it's not highly unusual.  And he didn't bolt out, he just veered out.  And then for no apparent reason the jockey seemed to simply jump off, though I know he must have slipped by the way he hit the ground.  Suddenly the second place horse, who was clearly not going to win, coasted home a winner.  The guy standing behind me had the #4 and he was devastated.  Ahhhh the track - so many ways to see your hopes dashed in a moment!  The eighth at Gulfstream was coming up and the horses were in the paddock.  A year ago I had won a turf allowance with Karibu Gardens because he was perfect fit for the conditions.  This race was very similar and while he was not a perfect fit for the race conditions he was repeating a winning pattern (race on synthetic, break, race on turf to win).  I knew he liked this course and he was a monster 10/1 in the program.  I was going to double the bet.  But when I looked at the board he was the 2/1 favorite!  Sigh.....so I upped the bet to a triple investment.  By the time I got to my seat his odds had floated up to 5/2 at post time.  He sat mid-pack towards the back, made a big move on the turn and swooped to the lead in deep stretch and drew off.  HORRAY! 

My third win at Gulfstream and the nice $7.60 payout would get me close to $40 to "play with!"  Interestingly, when I had made my bets - on the "wrong side" of Gulfstream, the teller I bet with, who had earlier given me a two bets to win on the same race on different horses, had screwed up again.  Before the Karibu race I sat down and THEN looked at my tickets.  She'd given me a ticket, correctly to WIN on #6 - Karibu Gardens, but instead of a win bet on #8 at Oaklawn had given me another win bet on #8 HERE. 

Fortunately after trying to switch it, and getting shut out, at least I had the winning ticket.  As I walked in the Oaklawn race was finishing and the #8 - my pick - was dueling to the wire, PHOTO FINISH!  But I could tell I was just a close second, so I would have lost any way.  "Always check your tickets" they say, and you should.  Or, bet with tellers you trust - that will be my policy!  So I watched the Laurel 8th, The Fireplug Stakes where I thought Jake N Elwood would be the speed of the speed and wire the field.  He led into the stretch then weakened to be fifth.  And at the Fair Grounds, Same As was a sharp third at a big 7/1.  It was at this point that it was 4 pm and my current record, as I stated at the beginning was 20/3-8-1.  The second at Santa Anita were loading into the gate for a MSW sprint down the hillside turf course.  I LOVE to bet these races!  Tiz A Billy had run too well to lose in his last, his first down the hill.  At even money he'd dueled through sensational splits of :21.2 and :43 flat before losing a head bob on the wire.  He looked long gone today and was sent off as the 1/2 post.  Many, MANY years ago I had read a handicapping book about the power of early speed, and one thing I learned and have found to be true is that any time a horse shows early speed in its last they almost always run well next time out, but here's the interesting thing.....they often improve without being on the lead!  Such was the case here as Tiz A Billy broke sharply but rated comfortably in third behind two dueling speedsters.  As they curved into the stretch and headed across the main dirt track the rider guided him outside of horses and in the clear.  He responded to the shaking of the reins and sprinted clear as a MUCH THE BEST winner.  I'd doubled the bet, so I cashed for $15.  Next up was the Sunshine Millions Distaff.  I liked 10/1 You Bought Her.  She was bet down to 5/2 co-favoritism and dueled through the stretch, had a nose in front briefly, but was outfinished on the wire.  In the fifth at Oaklawn, The Beat Goes On rallied from way back to gain the show at 5/2.  Next on my sheet was The Louisiana Stakes from The Fair Grounds.  Eagle had won three in a row beating most of these and looked really hard to beat.  I remarked that International Star, who was 2-for-2 in New Orleans, including the Louisiana Derby last year was probably a more talented horse, but he was coming back off a several month layoff and was facing older for the first time.  I thought he was a race away.  Eagle made his move, edged clear at the furlong pole and then had no response when International Star ran right by him at 5/2 odds.  The 10th at Gulfstream was the Sunshine Millions Turf.  I'd won this last year with Manchurian High at nice 3/1 odds.  Last year he'd come off a layoff and closed strongly to be third in the 1 1/2 mile Grade 3 McKnight Handicap earning a 94 Beyer.  I thought he had an excuse because of a slow pace last year and the cutback to the Millions' distance of 8 1/2 furlongs worked in his favor.  He won and then ran a big 99 figure when third in the Grade 1 GP Turf Handicap.  But the rest of the year he showed little, never getting a number this big.  Flash forward.....last out he was off a layoff, ran in the McKnight and while sixth beaten over four lengths he earned a 95 Beyer.  So on form he looked to be coming into today's race with not quite as good of form, but on numbers he was actually better than last year.  And I liked this was the first time he'd earned a 90+ number since last winter.  The heavy favorite, Fundamental was coming off a layoff for Chad Brown, but I didn't like he was facing older for the first time.  I tripled the bet on Manchurian High.  As they approached the far turn he was towards the back but began picking off horses as Fundamental flattened out.  I could tell in announcer Larry Colmus' call that 'Manchurian had the momentum as he came into my camera's focus.  He collared the leader at the 16th pole and edged clear to win.  From my seats it's difficult to see the odds on the board and I knew he wasn't the favorite but had no idea of his post time odds.  As I walked into the simulcast center and saw the slow-motion finish I saw the odds........

And with the $16.40 payoff I would cash for almost $125.  NOW I'M BACK for sure I thought!  I was ready to bet the Marie Krantz Handicap at the Fair Grounds but when I check my horse's odds, I saw she was scratched.  So I was on hold until the Sunshine Millions Classic.  Here I liked Mexikoma to post the mild upset over what looked like a pretty average field.  The one that I would fear was Mr. Jordan who has talent and speed, but he'd just run last Saturday.  So I figured if he wasn't knocked out from last week's Grade 3 try, I thought he'd at least be vulnerable through the lane.  When the GP analysts came on air they immediately pointed out how much attention Mexikoma was getting in the wagering.  His last three figures were 93-96-97 and NONE of the others had ever earned a single number in the 90s, so I should not have been surprised.  When they hit the far turn Mr. Jordan had surged to the front and was two plus in front of Mexikoma who was a half dozen in front of the rest of the field.  They turned for home together.  Not sure if it was that he ran last week; the nine furlongs of today's race; or that Mexikoma was that much better but my pick wore him down and was in front at the 16th pole and pulled clear - my THIRD stakes win on the day! 

I had hoped for a better price, but my double investment earned almost $25 on his 6/5 post time odds.  As I walked inside they were turning for home in the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds.  Today in New Orleans was the "Road To The Derby Kickoff" Day and this race was the first step for 3yo fillies as they point for the Fair Ground Oaks with hopes of racing on the first Friday of May in the Kentucky Oaks.  I REALLY liked Steve Asmussen's Stageplay.  She'd won her first two starts by stalking the pace, but last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs she was close to the pace as the 7/5 favorite over a sloppy track.  The uncharacteristically close trip and the wet track - many horses really dislike the "greasy" feel of the unique Louisville surface when it's wet - I wasn't sure.  But I thought she was ready to have a real BREAKOUT performance today......I went "primetime" in my investment.  So as I walked in there she was making her move to the front and with each stride she edged more and more clear to the wire! 

THREE IN A ROW! I am truly on a roll now.  I texted Kimmy that the races were running late and I would be about a half hour later, she was cool with that.....I wanted to see the finale from Gulfstream live.  At Santa Anita Lily showed little in a MSW race at 5/2.  Before the finale here they were in the gate for the feature at Oaklawn, the Fifth Season Stakes.  When I'd looked at the field the horse that jumped out to me was one of my favorites, Departing.  This guy had won several races for me and was a career millionaire earner.  BUT.....in his last couple I thought he should have won and he didn't, maybe he was vulnerable in here.  I found Street Strategy who not only had three wins locally, a "Horse for the Course" perhaps - but he'd won HERE off a short break last winter.  Today he was dropping out of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and I thought he'd be a fair price.  As they turned for home Departing edged to the front but Street Strategy was on his hip and the two dueled the length of the stretch to the wire......PHOTO FINISH!

But I was pretty sure I'd won and the slo-mo confirmed it.  I'd tripled the bet and he was 5/2, so the $7.00 payoff would get me over $50!  FOUR IN A ROW!  Now it was time for the 12th at Gulfstream.  And I had a real conundrum......on Opening Day Zulu had been my "BEST" of the day and had romped.  I read he had Derby thoughts and he was my BET of the Day when he romped yesterday.  On Opening Day the horse that chased him home and was over five lengths clear of the show horse was Sharp Azteca - he was the heavy favorite in here.  I'd written when I handicapped the Saturday card that if Zulu won big I might have to make him my pick.  But my top pick was Boalt Hall who was a first-time starter for Todd Pletcher.  Hmmmmm.  In the end I decided that I would not change my bet and I gave my $10 to the teller to get my ticket.  I took up a spot near the finish line on the steps so I'd have a good view of the run to the wire as the sun set over the condos on the western horizon.  As they hit the far turn Sharp Azteca had taken over the lead, but with a burst Boalt Hall swooped up three wide and ran by him like he was tied to the rail!  As he ran towards the finish line where I was filming his margin grew wider and wider!  UNBELIEVABLE!  I was elated to get my sixth win of the day locally - what a day I'm having.  I walked in to make my last few bets and realized I had not seen what odds Boalt Hall had been......the slow motion finish was on the TV monitor in the breezeway and I nearly fainted......

Can you believe a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden first time starter, with John Velazquez, in the iconic silks of Stonestreet Stables could pay $21.20 at Gulfstream!  OH MY!  I'm collecting over $100 for the second time today on a single race!  WOWZA!  I made my last three bets and headed out to meet "my girls."  Had a great time and enjoyed not only telling the stories from today, but seeing how excited the two couples were to join us at the Derby.  The girls in particular were all over the idea of dressing up and getting big hats :)  When I got home I checked my last three races.  First up was my BET of the DAY at the Fair Grounds.  The Grade 3 Colonel Bradley was a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and Chocolate Ride looked tons the best to me.  He'd won four of his last five, the lone exception being a Grade 1 try.  In the other four starts he'd earned triple digit figures.  I was surprised when I watched the replay that as soon as the gates opened he went to the front and set sail on the lead.  The pace was moderate and no one was making a move on him!  With less than a furlong to go the LONG stretch at the Fair Grounds started to take it's toll and the deep closers were gaining, but too little, too late!  ANOTHER WIN!

I'd bet $30 to win and his 4/5 odds meant I'll cash for ANOTHER FIFTY dollars and change!  The next to the last race on my list was the Grade 3 LeComte for three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds.  Where as the Silverbulletday was the first step for fillies pointing for the Oaks, this was the first step for the colts pointing for the Louisiana Derby and ultimately the Kentucky Derby.  I thought the field was evenly matched but Mo Tom, son of champion Uncle Mo had the best last-race figure when he rallied from dead last to just miss in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.  Sure enough, as they hit the far turn he was still well out of it, but was beginning to pick off horses.  With the closers profile here I knew he had a chance and inside the final furlong he had all the momentum as he blew by and drew off!  WOW, another win!

Mo Tom paid over $6 so my double investment will return over $30!  The last race on my selection sheet was the Grade 2 La Canada.  My pick was Taris who had never gone this far before and the only time she'd tried two turns she'd faded badly.  But I did NOT like any of the other win candidates.  She had run third in the BC F&M Sprint then won the one-turn, Grade 3 Go For Wand at Aqueduct.  I believed if anyone could coax the extra mileage out of her it was Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens.  He is such a great rider - he had her third about three of the lead to the turn and had not asked her yet.  Then she burst by the favorite (who was the DRF's Brad Free's BEST BET) and ran away to win by daylight! 

I'd closed with SEVEN wins on my last eight selections!  The final numbers, considering the position I was in at 4 pm are staggering.......for the day I'd won with THIRTEEN of thirty-three picks, a big 39%.  In spite of all the early losses, most with added money investments, I profited on the day over $200 - yes, OVER TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS, easily the best day of the meet so far.  And when I return to Gulfstream and cash in the tickets I brought home - all of one of which were winning tickets - I'll be collecting almost $320!  What a day. 

"My Girls"

Sunshine Millions Video Highlights

Jan. 13-15 - Days 26, 27, & 28

Two Late WINS Produce Winning Day To Kick Off Long Week Of Racing

Wednesday January 13

With holiday racing on Monday, MLK Jr. Day, today was the first of six consecutive days of world class thoroughbred racing at Gulfstream Park.  After completing my third straight day of walking four miles plus, I was on the computer through the first part of the afternoon so I watched the first seven races live.  Ironically it wasn't until I walked away from the live feed that I had both of my scores!  In the second Word was a GP 40% Club play for trainer Kelly Breen, and I made him my top selection in a MSW event in spite of Breen's 0-for-12 start to the meet.  Paco Lopez had him on the lead into the stretch before giving way to cross the wire fifth.  In the fourth Protection had fired a best of sixty-four bullet work that led me to pick him in an upset.  He rallied three-wide into the lane and was part of a five-horse blanket finish ..... second oh-so-narrowly at 7/2.  In the 7th I agreed with both the online analysts, new hottie Gabby Gaudet (who is an excellent handicapper by the way) and NYRA old codger Andy Serling, when then commented that it would be hard to go against Rock Eagle in this 2-lifetime claiming event if he were anywhere but marooned in the parking lot with a post 14 draw.  Not so sure that this was the cause for the result but he was wide out of the gate and guided to the rail, which was a smart move, but as they hit the far turn he was dead last.  Never moved much out of that spot finishing a distant 8th without really ever showing anything.  At this point I walked away from the races and decided to watch the last three selections by replay after dinner.  When I came back to the replays on twinspires.com I noted that my top choice in the 8th, Ami's Flatter, had been sent off as the 6/5 favorite.  He had scored at first asking here last winter and then saw nothing but stakes rivals after that.  In that run of races he had produced an excellent second place finish in the $100K Mucho Macho Man here, and even better second in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and an even better than that third in the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby.  But he'd been away since July and was facing older runners for the first time.  His two sharp bullet works told me he was ready to fire and I anticipated a big effort.  He tracked the dueling leaders into the far turn, moved to the front and through the final furlong powered home in a very quick final time for seven furlongs in 1:21 and change - that's stakes quality race time!

I'd doubled the bet so I was collecting over $20 with my first win of the long week of racing action.  Right back in the ninth in a starter optional claimer going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I thought that this was a wide-open race and initially hesitated to make an investment.  But after looking closely at all the potential win candidates the fact that top rider Javier Castellano moved off of one of the win contenders to Scrumpdilicious on the rail AND that there appeared to be multiple horses who wanted the lead which would put him in an ideal garden spot to trip out behind the fast pace and set him up nicely to produce his best effort.  Combine those facts with that his last race produced a career best 88 Beyer figure while finishing second at this level by a mere neck all added up to a winning play.  The race played out exactly like this as the early leaders set a :22 and change opening quarter, followed by a :45 half mile split, both WAY too fast for a mile and a sixteenth.  Meanwhile Scrumpdilicious was sitting chilly in fourth, clear of the field some five off the leaders.  As those early sprinters began to tire into the far turn Castellano glided his mount three wide to engage and then run by the leaders.  The rest of the field was now closing ground quickly, but Castellano had a ton of horse under him and he opened up to win easily. 

The generous $6 mutual produced $30 into my account and I had a winning day!  In the finale Updraft threaded through the field from far back and beat all but one home at a 2/1 price for my second runner-up finish of the day.  33% winning average and a profit for the day - I'll take it!

Saw Gabby (far right) at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan's Day

Thursday January 14

Oh so close...... The highlight of the day was a big win early in the card, but the story of the day was that I ran second THREE times today and missed with my only two added money selections.  In the opener I had the first of my runner-up finishes when Star Contender made his move entering the stretch on the grass but simply was second best.  I was fourth in the second half of the early double at 5/2 when Dunkin Bend didn't fire.  But the third was my day's highlight.  It was a wide-oen maiden claimer on the turf and I settled on Weight of Gold.  I liked him (a) because the field was weak (and slow) and I liked the fact that his two first starts were over the Woodbine main track in sprints.  The barn was clicking at a 20% overall rate and had won with 33% of their first-off-the-claim runners.  Finally, he was cutting his price tag in half and had breeding to suggest he just might like the grass and the distance.  Weight of Gold sat mid pack to the turn then swooped up decisively to run by the leaders and drew off impressively through the lane.  And the best part - the price: 

If only I'd doubled the bet to go for an "Upset Special!"  But I settled for almost $35 on this minimum play.  I had my two "best bets" coming up so I felt confident that I'd win one of them and finish with a clear profit.  Not so fast my friend.....Crazy Frank C pressed the pace, dueled and gave way to be second best in the 6th; and in the 7th the horse I liked best on the day, Market Strength (a Chad Brown colt on the turf in a 3yo MSW with Javier Castellano) was near the back early and improved his position only marginally while simply passing tired horses.  The last pick of the day saw Afleet Accompli run 5th at 5/1 without threatening.  So for the second day's results I was only 1-for-7, but the big price let me finish close to even.

Friday January 15

And the rains came DOWN! ...... Today, in spite of the weather I was an excellent 40% and BOTH of the wins came with BIG TIME investments.  I had selections in the 2nd and 5th on the turf, but did not like anyone when they were rained off.  My first selection came in the fourth which had been scheduled to go five furlongs on the grass, but now was on the main track.  Wellingtons Appeal was a GP 40% Club play on the turf with the class drop, but when moved to the main track it was a double club play.  He dueled early, took over approaching the far turn and led all the way to deep stretch before weakening late to finish third.  The sixth was my first "prime time play" and it was in a old maiden claiming event.  Our Commodore had been very sharp last winter when third behind Danzig Moon who went on to be graded stakes place.  He was then fourth at Keeneland behind Wisecracker who was also a talented colt.  'Commodore had not been out since that spring but the paired figures, the 32% win rate for the barn with MSW droppers all pointed him out to me with top rider Javier Castellano up.  Oh, and did I mention that it was a Pletcher runner?  :)  He was a fair price of 6/5 until they left the gate then took a lot of late money to end up at 4/5 odds.  He dueled into the stretch then edged clear without being asked to run hard - WINNER! 

I cashed for nearly $40.  In the 7th it could have been my "day-maker" as Strong Composition went off at a juicy 4/1 as another 40% Club play.  Trainer Larry Pilotti only makes the club under one set of conditions - when Luis Saez rides.  Saez had him pressing between horses, but when they spun out of the turn he burst to the lead and was clear to the 16th pole.  Then here came my second choice in the iconic Ramsey colors for Michael Maker with Castellano up - JUST caught me in the shadow of the wire.  Missed with Castellano on another Pletcher maiden that I didn't have a lot of faith in, but hey, it's a Pletcher 3yo maiden at GP.....Morning Dancer was third at 3/1.  Then in the 10th it was my BET of the Day - probably the BET of the WEEK unless something unusual pops on the Monday holiday card.  On Opening Day my "Best" had been in the second race with a Pletcher first-time starter, Zulu.  He'd won and had looked good.  But not so good that I thought, "here's a Derby horse."  But in the weeks since then I'd read that his connections thought he might be that good.  So when he appeared in the entries for today I was all over it.  I was just a touch concerned when I was watching the pre-race day handicapping show and both Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling were against Zulu and went with the #5 horse.  I looked up Ron Nicoletti's picks and he had Zulu as his best.  So I stuck with my "prime-time plus" investment.  But as the betting started for the 10th - I was watching on the big screen via the live feed - the first thing I noted was that the #5 was scratched.  I went online and upped the bet!  Zulu broke sharply and was stalking two early leaders through the first quarter mile of a one-turn mile.  As they clicked off the opening half, the first of the longshots dropped out.  Jockey John Velazquez shook the reins ever so slightly and Zulu shifted to a higher cruising gear quickly collaring the leader and poking his head in front as they spun out of the turn and sprinted for the wire.  For about 100 yards it looked like that one would press the favorite, but by the time they reached the furlong pole it was all over as Zulu lengthened his stride and easily drew off as much, MUCH the best!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

I was thankful that in the final minutes of wagering some "value" money had come in on the other runners that allowed Zulu to move up off the 1/9 odds and up to 1/5.  So I will cash out for $60 on the BET of the Week!  Tomorrow is Sunshine Millions Day with seven stakes races, and as an added bonus it is "Road To The Derby Day" in New Orleans where the Fair Grounds has multiple stakes including the first prep races for the Fair Ground Oaks, a precursor to the Kentucky Oaks, and the Grade 3 Lecomte which is a prep for the Louisiana Derby with runners hoping for a bid to the Kentucky Derby!