Two GREAT Decisions - BINGO ..... BIG WINS!
When I handicapped the Sunday card I did so with the knowledge that in all likelihood it would be a rainy day that might, or might not affect not only the surface of the races, but also who would run. And that in turn could impact the race flow dynamics. So I was well aware that if I were to like a horse well enough to invest in him I'd better be certain of the race conditions and field I was playing into. I went online this morning at about 11 and looked for scratches and changes and according to the scratch board we were on the turf and none of the principals of the races had scratched so I made my bets. After we had a nice walk together Kim and I decided to simply spend the day at home and so as I worked on the computer I opened up the live feed from Gulfstream. To be honest, most days I do so with the intention of "being at the races - virtually" but today I wanted to be aware of any changes due to the weather as I'd change my bets. I logged on just as they were finishing race two, which was on the main track and my pick Gasolina was a distant 6th at 3/1. As the horses entered the paddock the banner on the feed indicated the turf was "GOOD" and the third was scheduled for the grass, which was where my pick was. But as the horses walked around the on-air analysts remarked about how none of the horses in here had good dirt form and that the odds-on favorite had one race on the dirt and it was terrible. That horse was Social Stranger and was my second choice, a Todd Pletcher horse. I debated about investing in the race on him as he was even-money and then I considered sticking with my turf horse, Keystoneforvictory, a Michael Maker turf specialist. But in the end I passed the race. My top choice (on turf) faded badly after a half, and the Pletcher horse was home free at the top of the lane but was run down in the shadow of the wire. Nice choice to pass. I had no picks in the 4th or 5th. The sixth was one of my two top plays. I loved Defer Haven who was 2/1 in the program but figured to be odds-on. Four of the five first races today had been maiden claimers - the other a 3yo claiming event where all were last out maiden winners - and this was the first "winners" race for older runners. But it was a bottom level $6.25K sprint. Still, as I wrote in my analysis, you don't need a Breeders' Cup Grade 1 to find a good play. Defer Haven was a six-year-old who had won eleven of his twenty-four career starts; he'd dominated $10K runners twice recently, and in his most recent race he'd beaten $16K runners. So he towered over these. Off the layoff, no probable for a Jorge Navarro runner, and as such with the class drop he was a Gulfstream 40% Club play. The rider had only nine wins from over 100 mounts, but "inside the statistics" showed he was a huge 50% rider for Navarro. And to add to the interest, he looked to be the lone speed! Yet as the horses walked onto the track he was NOT the favorite! What was the crowd thinking? Should I change my bet now that we were on the off-going? I stuck with it and he left the gate at nearly 2/1 odds. Within the first three jumps he was multiple lengths clear of the field and led them on the merriest of chases all the way to the wire!
Whoooo hooooo! The $5.80 payoff led to a collection of nearly $45 into my account as he won by nearly a pole! In the 7th Baduke was the 5/2 third choice and was flying late, but was too far back to be a real threat, third. In the 8th we wer on the turf so I stuck with Todd Pletcher's Sweet Victory with Javier Castellano at 5/2. Right there to the turn and then finished without any punch, fifth. So with the 8th on the grass I was certain the 9th would be, and that was significant because this was the BET of the Day and it was a "Turf Only" play. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is a 40% Club member with a single angle - when Javier Castellano rides. In Coming Attraction's last three races she earned Beyer figures of 84-85-85 and ALL THREE were better than any figure earned by any of today's rivals. I looked through the field and was amazed that of the 127 combined starts only two figures had been earned that even cleared the 80 mark! A TRIPLE Beyer runner that was a GP 40% Club play AND had the top jockey. Well, duh, hello! So I was working on some other things when I heard the analysts say that this race was now OFF THE TURF! Uh oh. I looked at the board and Coming Attraction was the even-money choice. Now what? I re-read my analysis, clearly a "turf only" play. But the crowd still loved her and McGaughey, typically conservative was still running her. I opened up the DRF Racing Form's past performances and she'd not run on an off track, but she did have a Tomlinson mud figure of over 400, which is indicative of a runner who will really enjoy running on a sloppy track:
I also now noted that she'd raced on the main track three times, and while her Beyers were not anything close to what she'd earned on the turf, she did hit the board in all three. Stick with the pick? If so, stick with the bet? Pass? Lower the bet. In the end I decided if a Hall of Fame trainer, with the meet's top jockey was going to stick with his horse, and the two were winning at a better than 40% clip AND I'd already made the bet, I'm still in. Castellano kept Coming Attraction just off the leaders until they hit the turn. As they moved through the turn you could tell the filly was ready to make her move - and we were using the first/short finish line.....time to go! But she was behind horses. Here is why Castellano is the top rider. Rather than panic or make a wide four-wide run, he waited and as they began their swing for home the top ones floated off the rail. Castellano shook the reigns and the response was immediate as Coming Attraction burst up the rail and was quickly clear by two and set sail for the wire!
Best of all her 4/5 odds at post time had floated up to 6/5, so with my $25 investment I was cashing for well over $55. NICE! My pick ran 4th as the 7/5 favorite in the finale. But for the day I was an outstanding 2-for-5 with a profit of about $30. And here's a curious fact for those of you that follow my racing adventures. I nearly always end up around 30% no matter when you draw the line. So yesterday I was 7-for-25, at 28% (close) ..... but for the weekend, adding in today's races I was 9-for-30, that's right......30% !!!! :)
Gulfstream Park: January 6-10Week 5 Highlights
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