Weekend Racing Recap
It was a wild weather weekend and that certainly impacted the racing to some degree. After a gorgeous day Thursday the weather prognosticators were very accurate in predicting a torrential downpour on Friday; then on Saturday the weather cleared, but was cool. And on Sunday we woke up to temperatures in the low 40s.....that is cold in Florida my friend.
Friday January 22
Three of the first four races for Friday were originally scheduled for the grass, and all were taken off leading to a lot of changes. But, I didn't have a pick in the dirt opener, and of the three turf events I only had made a single selection, who scratched. Buy I did have investment selections in the final six races on the card. In the fifth I liked Miss Deja Vu ONLY if it was moved to the main track. Sent out by Peter Walder with Javier Castellano on boar she was 7/2 at post time, led to mid-stretch and gave way while drifting out - a fading fifth. In the sixth Cool Man Walkin was a GP 40% Club play for trainer Saffie Joseph with Castellano. Sent out at 2/1 he was outsprinted early and chased the lone speed all the way around the track, third. In the 7th I really liked Don's Girl who was probably NOT a good bet. In BOTH of her last starts she'd been loose on the lead and got run down. As Keith always says, "a quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter." But I took a chance today because not only were her last two figures better than any lifetime number of her rivals but she was literally the ONLY front runner in the field. Led into the stretch after setting a moderate pace, but faded again to 4th at even money. In the 8th I really liked Blame Jim from the Todd Pletcher barn. So did the crowd as he was the big 6/5 favorite. He pressed the pace into the turn, then just stopped, seventh. This day is NOT going as I'd seen it! In the 8th I would FINALLY get into the winner's circle.
Orsorno was my "best" of the day in a maiden claimer for older. Last time out, in his debut, he'd had a troubled start, but recovered and cleared the field to lead into the stretch. There he was run down by a Pletcher colt - who was my pick that day - but held on to be second while nearly three clear of the show runner. Second time starting maidens win at a big 31% for trainer Ralph Nicks so I expected an even better effort from Orsorno with jockey Joel Rosario up. He was pressured from the start, but edged clear as they moved into the lane, but then he was caught again and forced to duel the length of the stretch on the inside......JUST hung on to win at 4/5 odds. I closed the day out with my second consecutive win where my pick was strictly a main-track selection. Super C Me had won five of his last six, and all of them had been on the front end, on the dirt. The wide draw would make getting to the lead more difficult IF the field remained intact. AND there was other speed to the inside. I was hopeful when I analyzed the race that (a) it would come off the grass and (b) some of the inside speed would scratch. Both came to pass and Super C Me was sent off at even money. He was off a step slowly - that's not good - but quickly recovered and before they'd hit the first quarter pole he was in front by daylight. As they came out of the turn the stalkers were making their move and I briefly thought he might be in trouble, but then he shifted into high gear and was L-O-N-G gone. So for the day I was a solid 2-for-6 and was content with the results.
Saturday January 23
Today was one of the very few Saturdays that did NOT have multiple stakes races, and in fact had only a single stakes event. So my plan was to stay home, scale back on the selections while looking over multiple fields, and make my trip to the track on Sunday when the weather looked to be very chilly - I wanted to enjoy the crisp weather outside. So for today I only handicapped at Gulfstream and at Tampa where they had three stakes races. In the end I only had the three added money events at Tampa as the rest did not appeal to me. I thought that the races at Gulfstream would be back on the turf today with the spectacular South Florida sunshine, but I thought maybe the opener would come off to give the course a little added time to dry out. I had picks for both the inner and outer courses. I was spot-on with my thinking as the opener was the lone race taken off the turf. I went with Toh's Grey Cat. He was in post 14 but he is a pace-presser so that would play into his running style. He salked to speed into the turn, opened up into the stretch, but was caught! NO! But inside the final 16th as announcer Larry Colmus was about to call the other horse a winner he surged to WIN!
Best of all he went off at a very juicy 4/1 price so with my double investment I was starting the day off by collecting $50! WHOOOO HOOOOO! My selection scratched out of the second and I'd passed on the third through fifth. In the sixth Kismet Heels was sent out by Todd Pletcher in a Maiden Special for 3yo on the turf. Last time out he'd been my top pick in spite of another Pletcher runner, Gimlet being in the field that day. Gimlet had been the favorite but it was Kismet Heels who was a sharp second. I thought he'd improve today and I still didn't like Gimlet. But as they came into the far turn BOTH Pletcher runners were making their move. I was going to be wide, but Gimlet fanned about six or seven wide as he gathered momentum and I was forced at least eight wide into the lane. I was surging late, but second behind the stable mate. The seventh was on the turf and I debated not about who to bet, but how much. Ousby had been visually impressive winning his debut when he drew off by at least a pole a month ago. On that performance I thought he'd have no problems taking on winners next time out. So here he was. But instead of trying allowance rivals he was in a starter optional claiming event. Hmmmm. Not so much confidence by his connections? Was I over-rating him? I went back and forth and finally made him the minimum play. The crowd had no such reservations and sent him off at even money. He repeated that last out performance by just blowing the field away through the stretch. Up the bet on him next time out!
My last pick on the Gulfstream card was in the feature, the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens. Charming Kitten was the OBVIOUS choice and class of the field, and he'd won at this marathon distance. But NO ONE wanted the lead. Just the kind of race where somebody could steal it at a fair price. That looked to be Roccia d'Oro. I was exacta-a-mundo in my analysis and he walked through opening fractions of :27 for the opening quarter, :54.3 for the first half mile; and a pokey 1:21 for six furlongs. I'm home free at 5/1 I thought. Nope. 'Kitten blew by in the stretch and I faded to fourth. Oh, the Tampa races.....Cosmic Girl chased the 4/5 favorite all the way around the track in the seven furlong Gaspirilla Stakes for fillies; then Jay's Way was a big 6/1 in the colt's version, the Pasco, but faded to 4th after stalking the lone speed. In the Wayward Lass Savings Plan was clearly the mare to beat and was the 7/5 favorite. She was comfortably tracking the front running longshot (10/1) as the 7/5 favorite. Speed rarely holds at Tampa, but when they turned for home Savings Plan could not make up any ground.....second. So, it was a good day at Gulfstream 4/2-1-0 with a $25 profit, but the three Tampa races led me to a very small loss for the day and dropped my winning average.
Sunday January 24
OOOOOH it's chilly! As I mentioned at the top, it was 42 degrees when we got up today. And when I headed out to Gulfstream it was only in the mid-50s. I kept thinking all day about our upcoming French River Cruise and the forecast is for this kind of weather. Seems like it will be cold, but while at Gulfstream and being in the sun, it was very comfortable, so I think the temperatures will be ideal for our trip! I had looked at Tampa, the Fair Grounds, and Oaklawn for some solid picks - I was very selective in my analysis. And I did find two races at each to add to my sheet. I had seven races from Gulfstream. I'd gone back and forth about spending the day at the track, but in the end - after not liking a lot at the other tracks - it looked like I'd be standing around a lot. So I picked to go out early for about two hours early in the card, enjoy the brisk weather and watch two live races. Then come home and walk with Kim before settling in for the day. The first pick on my sheet was the second from Tampa and after cashing my two winning tickets from Thursday I watched in the breezeway as Tonite Tonite wired the field at 2/1. NICE - off to a great start! In the second at Gulfstream I liked Crime Buzz, a GP 40% Club play on the turf. Went off at a nice 5/2 and as they were leaving the gate Jeff called me. He was on his way to the races, he'd not been since June when he and I went out for about an hour (Antoinette and the boys are in California). I told him my picks were online if he wanted them. Crime Buzz made a move on the turn, no late punch, 6th. The last race I'd watch live was the third from Gulfstream where Todd Pletcher's first time starter, Vista Creek was the prohibitive 8/5 morning line choice. Rarely are the favorites below 2/1 and especially as a first time starter. The works were good, but not spectacular, what did "they" know that I didn't? I would have made him the top choice anyway, but upped the bet to a triple investment. He was hammered down to 4/5 at post time and broke on top from the rail. He dueled to midway on the turn and then stopped, fading to fifth and last. I had decided to NOT make the rest of the day's bets with cash, but to used my twinspires account, so I headed for home (with the windows down!). Jeff texted me as I was about to leave - he'd had $20 to win on a Tampa winner that paid $27.40! OH MY. He texted, "maybe it's time to go home." I encouraged him to stay, what the heck :) He did and when dinner time rolled around and I was getting ready to watch my replays he called and told me he was about to walk out and at worst would be a $30 winner on the day. Minutes later his text arrived, he'd had $35 to win on a $8 winner at Gulfstream (not a race I had a pick in) so he was leaving with a profit of over $150. That's my son. I sat down to watch my races and in the first of the events my pick Elnath rallied into the stretch - appeared to have no where to go, but SQUEEZED between horses at the sixteenth pole and was clear late to win!
Too bad I only had the minimum on the 3/2 favorite. Next on my sheet was the second from the Fair Grounds. I'd bet on Voodoo Spell a few times before and he's a winning machine. On turf or dirt, though I prefer him as a turf sprinter rather than a main track one, and today we were on the grass. I would have made him a "prime time" play under normal situations, but sharp turf riding James Graham who had been the leading rider here last year, had just come back from trying the So Cal circuit. You'd think that would have been a boost to his winning, but he was off to a 1-for-40 start in New Orleans. Ouch. When you're finding ways to lose, even with good horses you struggle. So I only doubled the bet. Sure enough, Vooodoo Spell had to check early, was between horses through the turn, and behind a wall of horses into the lane. Luckily the stretch at the Fair Grounds is very long and when finally clear Voodoo Spell kicked it into high gear and got up in the shadow of the wire in spite of the troubled trip. Only paid $3, but I'll take the $15 payout. Next up the sixth from Gulfstream, a maiden claimer on the turf. A whopping SEVEN horses entered in this event had all squared off on December 31 and that day Mind Magic had been the 4/5 favorite. He'd rallied and cleared the other six while just missing by a neck. Seemed obvious to me. I should have bet more. He glided up thru the turn and then ran away as TONS the best.
The even money favorite meant I'd cash for $20. My second race at Tampa saw my pick scratch. The two Oaklawn races saw my first one finish third at a big 6/1 then favoried What A Shiner disappoint as a 4th place finisher while debuting at 4/5 odds. At the Fair Grounds my second choice, Arch Rivalry led all the way on the grass, setting a slow :50 half mile split, but was nailed on the wire in a photo finish. The 7th at Gulfstream saw 1/5 Flowers for Lisa fail again - that's it for her, luckily only the minimum today; and then Bride To Be led in mid-stretch at 3/1 in the 8th, but was caught - another second. In the finale at Gulfstream Arghad laid over the field and was being bet that way at 3/5. But the rider - after saving ground into the turn - made nothing but bad decisions and got trapped, checked, finally decided to go outside, but to do so had to take back to the rear of the field, then rallied six wide. His sprint to the wire was breath-taking but so far back he had no chance, my third consecutive runner-up finish of the day locally. For the day I was a high percentage 4-for-12, but the races where I had the more money invested were not the ones I won. Still, for the week I was a good 30/10-8-2. Looking forward to next Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes card, our first glimpse at the three-year-olds pointing for the Derby and the Oaks. I would be remiss if I also did not mention our Florida Panthers. Since Thanksgiving our 'Cats have gone 20-6-1 and have moved into a solid first place position - Stanley Cup here we come. But this weekend we were coming off of a 4-game losing skid to face the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks on Friday and then cross-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning, who'd played Chicago in the Cup finals last June on Saturday night. We had an amazing three-goal burst in the first period, including the last one with 2.1 seconds on the clock to dominate Chicago 4-0 and then used a four-goal outburst in the second period to dump the Lightning 5-2. It was the first time in 25 years that an NHL team had beaten the two Cup finalists from the previous year in back-to-back nights. And, more importantly, Tampa had won seven in a row and had closed to within a point of us on Thursday. The win Friday over Chicago gave us a small three point lead, but a loss would have dropped the lead to one - but the win gave us a big cushion of five points as we near the All-Star break. AND the area - sell-out crowds BOTH nights, nearly 40,000 people came to see hockey over the weekend with us!
Week Seven Racing RecapJune 21-24
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