If you had pulled me aside at about 3:45 pm and told me, "you're going to remember today as one of THE BEST days of the Gulfstream meet" I would have doubled over in laughter. Why? Because the from the first race at 12:05 until 4 pm when we were in the paddock before the 9th at Gulfstream my record for the day was 20 Selections / 4 WINS - EIGHT 2nd place finishes....ouch. And then it all turned around, and in a hurry. But first, here's how those first four hours played out. Considering all the rain from Friday I was surprised, but very pleased that only the opener was coming off the turf. Oh what a change from the days at Calder when rain two weeks ago would take us off the turf! Today was a beautiful Saturday afternoon by contrast with crystal blue skies and plenty of sun while the mid-afternoon temperatures never got out of the mid-70s. But, the rain had forced the opener off the turf and to the main track where we'd be going a one-turn mile. My pick, Todd Pletcher's Tinto Mesa was bet down to 8/5 favoritism, which figured because he'd run equally well on the dirt. But he weakened on the turn after a wide trip and faded to sixth. The second at Gulfstream I tripled the bet on Pletcher's Lord Commander who was a nice 2/1 price. He pressed to the turn, and like the opener, he too faded badly to sixth. Inside to the simulcast televisions and my pick in Aqueduct's 2nd also faded to sixth at 5/1. I passed the third at Gulfstream and then was disappointed when Royal Posse was only second best in Aqueduct's featured Jazil Stakes while chasing the loose-on-the-lead winner. At Tampa I liked Rosa Carina who was 9/5 in the program for top jockey-trainer team of Antonio Gallarado and Jamie Ness. But with two minutes to post Rosa was STILL 1/9; then she floated up to 1/5 and left the gate at 4/5. Right out of the gate she dropped so far back she wasn't in the TV screen; and she did not appear in the screen until the rest of the field had turned for home and she was still running through the turn - a dismal 8th. At Laurel Legal Precedent was the even-money program favorite after running a best-of-the-rest second in both career starts and with figures that would easily win. But early in the betting he was NOT the favorite - that was the first red flag. Dropped to 4/5 favoritism at post time and had the perfect trip tracking dueling front runners.....but could not catch the one that won the early battle, second. I turned to the second page of my selection packet winless. That's highly unusual and was cause for concern, I am not going to lie to you. The fourth at Gulfstream was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds and of course I liked Todd Pletcher's Kinsley Kisses who was a big 5/1 in the program. But when the odds shifted twenty minutes out to reflect the wagering he was the 6/5 favorite. He wavered between 6/5 and 4/5 throughout the betting and you have to give me credit - winless after two hours at the races and I had enough confidence to up the investment from $10 to $15. Kinsley broke sharp as a tack, dueled to the top of the stretch and then drew off as much the best! WHOOOO HOOOOO I'm on the board!
The $3.60 payoff resulted in a return of close to $30 and at that point I was just happy that I would no longer have to worry about spending the entire day draining my bankroll! But the celebration was short-lived. The 4th at Laurel was the Marshua for 3-year-olds and Lost Raven looked tons the best for Todd Pletcher and top Maryland rider Trevor McCarthy. She'd set the pace in the Grade 2 Demoiselle last time out going nine furlongs and faded. The return to sprinting where she was a perfect 2-for-2 was the ideal move. The crowd sent her off at 1/2 odds. She was behind horses to the stretch when McCarthy found a seam on the rail, burst through to the lead and was clear......only to be caught late, second. I turned my attention to the Fair Grounds monitor and watched He'll Pay run second at 7/2. Wow. At Oaklawn, Tale of Honor was coming off a big layoff but first time for trainer Ingrid Mason here was a 35% win angle with a big $4.88 ROI. The 6/1 price could be an Arkansas "day-maker," so I doubled the bet. He was the co-second choice at 2/1 and faded after pressing for a half mile, sixth. The stakes action was about to start at Gulfstream and first up was the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf. Lori's Store was my pick. The field was a combined 2-for-21 over the Hallandale grass while she was 3-for-9. In addition she had FIVE 90 or better Beyers which were easily best of the field. I planned to double the bet, but I decided to up it to a triple investment when I read she was the DRF "Best" of the day. She stalked into the stretch, dueled to the 16th pole and edged clear late! ANOTHER WIN (finally!).
Like the first win of the day the price was small, only even money, but again I was just happy to have $30 back to work with as I try to get into a winning groove. In the 6th at Gulfstream, the Sunshine Millions Sprint the choice was obvious - go with the "NOW" horse, speedy XYZ Jet who was the even money favorite; or the returning class of the race, Wildcat Red. 'Jet had smoked the Gr 3 Mr. Prospector in near record time while setting insane fractions loose on the lead. Anything close to that kind of effort and the rest are running for second money. But in my opinion, (a) that race was just way too good to be a "normal" effort and (b) I didn't think he'd get an uncontested lead unless he went way too fast early. Either of those scenarios would set him up for a closer like Wildcat Red who got Javier Castellano. XYZ Jet broke a step slowly, good for me while Wildcat Red broke sharply; 'Jet recovered and flew to the front. When the opening quarter was posted at :21 and change and even more so when the half was a sensational :43 and change I knew I had him. Slow start and absurd fractions, he'd never last. Wildcat Red moved into second and.......XYZ Jet never stopped, winning comfortably while in hand in 1:08 and change. WOW, what a performance. Probably see him on Derby Day in a stakes and I'll have to decide if TWO monster performances means he's really that good or ready to bounce. As I got read for the last race on the page I was ready for what I'd thought would be Trevor McCarthy's sweep of the sophomore sprint stakes at Laurel. But Lost Raven had disappointed, what would happen in the colt version, the Frank Whitley Stakes, with Never Gone South? He'd won his first two and then had back-to-back heart-breaking seconds, losing by less than a length. His two back loss was to a colt named Awesome Speed who'd come back to romp in the Mucho Macho Man here at Gulfstream (as my choice!). I tripled the bet. Never Gone South went right to the front and was in hand. Laurel fractions are slow because of short run-ups to the teletimer, but still the opening fraction was :23 and change, way too slow for this kind of sprinter - I'm coasting on the lead! The half was in :47 and change, again way too slow to let me be loose on the lead. As the field swung through the turn I could see all the other riders pumping their horses imploring them to catch me on the lead while McCarthy had yet to move. Heads turned for home and McCarthy began working on Never Gone South. He went from a length in front to about a dozen in the blink of an eye. McCarthy saw the distance at the 16th pole and literally stood up through the final portion of the race - ULTRA impressive.
Like the first two winners he was the short-priced favorite, so I wasn't going to make big money, but the $24 return was enough to keep me "in the game!" I took my winning ticket to my favorite teller and asked for $20 to WIN on #5 at Gulfstream - Pure Sensation was my BET of the Day at Gulfstream in the Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint. But then I saw the tote machine show "No Runner" and she said, "Sorry, the 5 is scratched." Really, wow - this day is NOT going my way! I took the cash and walked away looking at my analysis. I had also liked Amelia's Wild Ride and with Pure Sensation out maybe I should bet him? Then Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling came on with their pre-race analysis and BOTH liked Ameila's Wild Ride. I started back to the window, then hesitated. I thought, if I were at home I'd just draw a line through the race and move on. But......no "buts" I told myself. Patience Mark. Your wins will come, if not today, another day. Don't force the bet. So I walked away......and watched Amelia's Wild Ride WIN at better than 2/1. Sigh......as I walked down the steps to head inside for my next race I was reading a text from one of "my girls" that I was meeting this evening for drinks - former students Kimmy and Christie who are bringing their husbands to the Florida Derby to join our annual party - and I was thinking she'll say, "how did you do today" and I'll reply, I spent the day zigging when I should have been zagging - picking lots of second place horses and not betting on horses I thought would win. Inside I watched the Sand Man run third at 7/2 at the Fair Grounds. Then I KNEW I had a winner. At Tampa Bali Strait looked MUCH the best in a MSW turf route for sophomores. She went off at a big 5/2 price with top jockey Antonio Gallardo on board. Right to the front and she was clear by two, but she was literally WALKING on the lead through a :49 half mile and 1:14 time for 3/4 of a mile. Through the turn all the other riders were working hard and Gallardo was sitting still as a statute. The second choice began to make up ground as they turned for home and now Gallardo asked......no response. The other horse ran right by - second, again. WOW. Moments later I had Flatter's Secret at Laurel who was way, WAY back and rallied to be second. This race though was one of the most weird finishes I've ever seen. In deep stretch the #4 was clear by three or four when the horse drifted out to the middle of the track. This is not typical, but it's not highly unusual. And he didn't bolt out, he just veered out. And then for no apparent reason the jockey seemed to simply jump off, though I know he must have slipped by the way he hit the ground. Suddenly the second place horse, who was clearly not going to win, coasted home a winner. The guy standing behind me had the #4 and he was devastated. Ahhhh the track - so many ways to see your hopes dashed in a moment! The eighth at Gulfstream was coming up and the horses were in the paddock. A year ago I had won a turf allowance with Karibu Gardens because he was perfect fit for the conditions. This race was very similar and while he was not a perfect fit for the race conditions he was repeating a winning pattern (race on synthetic, break, race on turf to win). I knew he liked this course and he was a monster 10/1 in the program. I was going to double the bet. But when I looked at the board he was the 2/1 favorite! Sigh.....so I upped the bet to a triple investment. By the time I got to my seat his odds had floated up to 5/2 at post time. He sat mid-pack towards the back, made a big move on the turn and swooped to the lead in deep stretch and drew off. HORRAY!
My third win at Gulfstream and the nice $7.60 payout would get me close to $40 to "play with!" Interestingly, when I had made my bets - on the "wrong side" of Gulfstream, the teller I bet with, who had earlier given me a two bets to win on the same race on different horses, had screwed up again. Before the Karibu race I sat down and THEN looked at my tickets. She'd given me a ticket, correctly to WIN on #6 - Karibu Gardens, but instead of a win bet on #8 at Oaklawn had given me another win bet on #8 HERE.
Fortunately after trying to switch it, and getting shut out, at least I had the winning ticket. As I walked in the Oaklawn race was finishing and the #8 - my pick - was dueling to the wire, PHOTO FINISH! But I could tell I was just a close second, so I would have lost any way. "Always check your tickets" they say, and you should. Or, bet with tellers you trust - that will be my policy! So I watched the Laurel 8th, The Fireplug Stakes where I thought Jake N Elwood would be the speed of the speed and wire the field. He led into the stretch then weakened to be fifth. And at the Fair Grounds, Same As was a sharp third at a big 7/1. It was at this point that it was 4 pm and my current record, as I stated at the beginning was 20/3-8-1. The second at Santa Anita were loading into the gate for a MSW sprint down the hillside turf course. I LOVE to bet these races! Tiz A Billy had run too well to lose in his last, his first down the hill. At even money he'd dueled through sensational splits of :21.2 and :43 flat before losing a head bob on the wire. He looked long gone today and was sent off as the 1/2 post. Many, MANY years ago I had read a handicapping book about the power of early speed, and one thing I learned and have found to be true is that any time a horse shows early speed in its last they almost always run well next time out, but here's the interesting thing.....they often improve without being on the lead! Such was the case here as Tiz A Billy broke sharply but rated comfortably in third behind two dueling speedsters. As they curved into the stretch and headed across the main dirt track the rider guided him outside of horses and in the clear. He responded to the shaking of the reins and sprinted clear as a MUCH THE BEST winner. I'd doubled the bet, so I cashed for $15. Next up was the Sunshine Millions Distaff. I liked 10/1 You Bought Her. She was bet down to 5/2 co-favoritism and dueled through the stretch, had a nose in front briefly, but was outfinished on the wire. In the fifth at Oaklawn, The Beat Goes On rallied from way back to gain the show at 5/2. Next on my sheet was The Louisiana Stakes from The Fair Grounds. Eagle had won three in a row beating most of these and looked really hard to beat. I remarked that International Star, who was 2-for-2 in New Orleans, including the Louisiana Derby last year was probably a more talented horse, but he was coming back off a several month layoff and was facing older for the first time. I thought he was a race away. Eagle made his move, edged clear at the furlong pole and then had no response when International Star ran right by him at 5/2 odds. The 10th at Gulfstream was the Sunshine Millions Turf. I'd won this last year with Manchurian High at nice 3/1 odds. Last year he'd come off a layoff and closed strongly to be third in the 1 1/2 mile Grade 3 McKnight Handicap earning a 94 Beyer. I thought he had an excuse because of a slow pace last year and the cutback to the Millions' distance of 8 1/2 furlongs worked in his favor. He won and then ran a big 99 figure when third in the Grade 1 GP Turf Handicap. But the rest of the year he showed little, never getting a number this big. Flash forward.....last out he was off a layoff, ran in the McKnight and while sixth beaten over four lengths he earned a 95 Beyer. So on form he looked to be coming into today's race with not quite as good of form, but on numbers he was actually better than last year. And I liked this was the first time he'd earned a 90+ number since last winter. The heavy favorite, Fundamental was coming off a layoff for Chad Brown, but I didn't like he was facing older for the first time. I tripled the bet on Manchurian High. As they approached the far turn he was towards the back but began picking off horses as Fundamental flattened out. I could tell in announcer Larry Colmus' call that 'Manchurian had the momentum as he came into my camera's focus. He collared the leader at the 16th pole and edged clear to win. From my seats it's difficult to see the odds on the board and I knew he wasn't the favorite but had no idea of his post time odds. As I walked into the simulcast center and saw the slow-motion finish I saw the odds........
And with the $16.40 payoff I would cash for almost $125. NOW I'M BACK for sure I thought! I was ready to bet the Marie Krantz Handicap at the Fair Grounds but when I check my horse's odds, I saw she was scratched. So I was on hold until the Sunshine Millions Classic. Here I liked Mexikoma to post the mild upset over what looked like a pretty average field. The one that I would fear was Mr. Jordan who has talent and speed, but he'd just run last Saturday. So I figured if he wasn't knocked out from last week's Grade 3 try, I thought he'd at least be vulnerable through the lane. When the GP analysts came on air they immediately pointed out how much attention Mexikoma was getting in the wagering. His last three figures were 93-96-97 and NONE of the others had ever earned a single number in the 90s, so I should not have been surprised. When they hit the far turn Mr. Jordan had surged to the front and was two plus in front of Mexikoma who was a half dozen in front of the rest of the field. They turned for home together. Not sure if it was that he ran last week; the nine furlongs of today's race; or that Mexikoma was that much better but my pick wore him down and was in front at the 16th pole and pulled clear - my THIRD stakes win on the day!
I had hoped for a better price, but my double investment earned almost $25 on his 6/5 post time odds. As I walked inside they were turning for home in the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Today in New Orleans was the "Road To The Derby Kickoff" Day and this race was the first step for 3yo fillies as they point for the Fair Ground Oaks with hopes of racing on the first Friday of May in the Kentucky Oaks. I REALLY liked Steve Asmussen's Stageplay. She'd won her first two starts by stalking the pace, but last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs she was close to the pace as the 7/5 favorite over a sloppy track. The uncharacteristically close trip and the wet track - many horses really dislike the "greasy" feel of the unique Louisville surface when it's wet - I wasn't sure. But I thought she was ready to have a real BREAKOUT performance today......I went "primetime" in my investment. So as I walked in there she was making her move to the front and with each stride she edged more and more clear to the wire!
THREE IN A ROW! I am truly on a roll now. I texted Kimmy that the races were running late and I would be about a half hour later, she was cool with that.....I wanted to see the finale from Gulfstream live. At Santa Anita Lily showed little in a MSW race at 5/2. Before the finale here they were in the gate for the feature at Oaklawn, the Fifth Season Stakes. When I'd looked at the field the horse that jumped out to me was one of my favorites, Departing. This guy had won several races for me and was a career millionaire earner. BUT.....in his last couple I thought he should have won and he didn't, maybe he was vulnerable in here. I found Street Strategy who not only had three wins locally, a "Horse for the Course" perhaps - but he'd won HERE off a short break last winter. Today he was dropping out of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and I thought he'd be a fair price. As they turned for home Departing edged to the front but Street Strategy was on his hip and the two dueled the length of the stretch to the wire......PHOTO FINISH!
But I was pretty sure I'd won and the slo-mo confirmed it. I'd tripled the bet and he was 5/2, so the $7.00 payoff would get me over $50! FOUR IN A ROW! Now it was time for the 12th at Gulfstream. And I had a real conundrum......on Opening Day Zulu had been my "BEST" of the day and had romped. I read he had Derby thoughts and he was my BET of the Day when he romped yesterday. On Opening Day the horse that chased him home and was over five lengths clear of the show horse was Sharp Azteca - he was the heavy favorite in here. I'd written when I handicapped the Saturday card that if Zulu won big I might have to make him my pick. But my top pick was Boalt Hall who was a first-time starter for Todd Pletcher. Hmmmmm. In the end I decided that I would not change my bet and I gave my $10 to the teller to get my ticket. I took up a spot near the finish line on the steps so I'd have a good view of the run to the wire as the sun set over the condos on the western horizon. As they hit the far turn Sharp Azteca had taken over the lead, but with a burst Boalt Hall swooped up three wide and ran by him like he was tied to the rail! As he ran towards the finish line where I was filming his margin grew wider and wider! UNBELIEVABLE! I was elated to get my sixth win of the day locally - what a day I'm having. I walked in to make my last few bets and realized I had not seen what odds Boalt Hall had been......the slow motion finish was on the TV monitor in the breezeway and I nearly fainted......
Can you believe a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden first time starter, with John Velazquez, in the iconic silks of Stonestreet Stables could pay $21.20 at Gulfstream! OH MY! I'm collecting over $100 for the second time today on a single race! WOWZA! I made my last three bets and headed out to meet "my girls." Had a great time and enjoyed not only telling the stories from today, but seeing how excited the two couples were to join us at the Derby. The girls in particular were all over the idea of dressing up and getting big hats :) When I got home I checked my last three races. First up was my BET of the DAY at the Fair Grounds. The Grade 3 Colonel Bradley was a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and Chocolate Ride looked tons the best to me. He'd won four of his last five, the lone exception being a Grade 1 try. In the other four starts he'd earned triple digit figures. I was surprised when I watched the replay that as soon as the gates opened he went to the front and set sail on the lead. The pace was moderate and no one was making a move on him! With less than a furlong to go the LONG stretch at the Fair Grounds started to take it's toll and the deep closers were gaining, but too little, too late! ANOTHER WIN!
I'd bet $30 to win and his 4/5 odds meant I'll cash for ANOTHER FIFTY dollars and change! The next to the last race on my list was the Grade 3 LeComte for three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds. Where as the Silverbulletday was the first step for fillies pointing for the Oaks, this was the first step for the colts pointing for the Louisiana Derby and ultimately the Kentucky Derby. I thought the field was evenly matched but Mo Tom, son of champion Uncle Mo had the best last-race figure when he rallied from dead last to just miss in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Sure enough, as they hit the far turn he was still well out of it, but was beginning to pick off horses. With the closers profile here I knew he had a chance and inside the final furlong he had all the momentum as he blew by and drew off! WOW, another win!
Mo Tom paid over $6 so my double investment will return over $30! The last race on my selection sheet was the Grade 2 La Canada. My pick was Taris who had never gone this far before and the only time she'd tried two turns she'd faded badly. But I did NOT like any of the other win candidates. She had run third in the BC F&M Sprint then won the one-turn, Grade 3 Go For Wand at Aqueduct. I believed if anyone could coax the extra mileage out of her it was Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens. He is such a great rider - he had her third about three of the lead to the turn and had not asked her yet. Then she burst by the favorite (who was the DRF's Brad Free's BEST BET) and ran away to win by daylight!
I'd closed with SEVEN wins on my last eight selections! The final numbers, considering the position I was in at 4 pm are staggering.......for the day I'd won with THIRTEEN of thirty-three picks, a big 39%. In spite of all the early losses, most with added money investments, I profited on the day over $200 - yes, OVER TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS, easily the best day of the meet so far. And when I return to Gulfstream and cash in the tickets I brought home - all of one of which were winning tickets - I'll be collecting almost $320! What a day.
"My Girls"
Sunshine Millions Video Highlights
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