Jan. 9 - Day 24

Saturday January 9:  Day 24

BEST BETS Carry The Day.....AGAIN

At the end of the day it was a closing streak of three wins that salvaged the day for me while my selections struggled at Gulfstream on a sunny January afternoon.  I spent a lot, A LOT of hours on Friday preparing for today's races and had selections from five different venues.  I felt good about my selections and had in fact not just one "BEST" but had half a dozen that I was going deep into the bankroll to invest on.  I had both my winning tickets from my visit Thursday so I cashed those and immediately had nearly $120 of "their money" to get started.  Kim had dropped me off prior to the first and she headed off to visit our friend Elaine, who recently moved close to Gulfstream, and the plan was for her to join me later in the afternoon and we'd top the day with dinner at The Yardhouse.  In the opener One More Cat was a giant 9/1 price and ran strongly to be fourth - good bet, no cash.  In the opener at Aqueduct I faded after being on the pace at 3/1 and in the second Todd Pletcher had Overcontrol in a nw2L event, either he's much the best or this is a fire sale....faded to 8th at 4/1.  The race that set the tone for the day's live racing came in Gulfstream's second.  Leopardshill Road had only been out twice, in MSW company and both her figures towered over this field of lightly raced sophomores.  Top jockey Javier Castellano was on board for trainer Saffie Joseph, and that's a Gulfstream 40% Club play with a big 47% win average at $2.57 ROI.  I knew she'd be a short price, but she was a near certain winner.  The crowd saw the same thing I did and sent her off at a prohibitive 1/5.  As they came out of the turn Castellano had the favorite right on the hip of the 80/1 front-runner.  He went to make his move and.....and......nothing!  Finally in the final 16th she found another gear and was gaining, but could not get by the $180.40 winner.  WOW - my prime-time bet found it's place in the trash as I - and many bettors - shook our heads.  But I have to give myself props because the next race was the feature from New York, the Interborough Stakes for older fillies and mares.  The star attraction was La Verdad who had run second in the Breeders' Cup Fillies & Mares Sprint.  She laid over this listed stakes.  The only question for me was would she try to wire the field in spite of at least two other front runners, or would she try and sit.  I could envision her getting caught up in a speed duel so originally I had planned to only going with a prime-time bet.  But the more I looked at it I was convinced that she was simply the fastest and obviously the class of the field.  So when I made my bet I had $50 to win.  She popped out of the gate willingly and was in front, but not alone.  Through the opening quarter a double-digit speedster kept her company, but into the turn she was clear and it was obvious to me she was in hand.  She turned for home with a daylight lead and was never threatened! 

My first winner was a BIG win!  Now after five races I had a single win, but was nearly even.  At Tampa the Turf Dash was their Saturday feature in the third.  It looked like a lot of speed and the classy Power Alert looked to sit a great trip just off the speed.  As is often the case one speed type cleared and I was sitting chilly in second.  But when Power Alert slid off the rail to make his move, the 11/1 front runner was long gone.....second.  I finally cashed a ticket at Gulfstream in the first of the three graded stakes, the Grade 3 Marshua's River.  Last winter I'd won with Todd Pletcher's Sandiva on both her stakes wins.  She'd not run well away from here, but I had bet her in her return to South Florida last out in the GPW Grade 3 My Charmer.  She had trouble, was off the layoff, and the turf was very soft as the race was run in a rain storm.  Today she looked primed for a huge effort as she returned to her favorite course.  As I watched the La Verdad race I told myself that if she won, I'd up the bet on Sandiva, so I went to the window and tripled the bet.  With the rail draw I thought Javier Castellano would sit just off the pace and save ground.  When the gates opened she was easily in front and Castellano took advantage of that to set a controlled pace.  When the field tried to make up ground in the far turn she had way too much left and she drew off in hand! 

Both wins today are in big stakes races!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  I came right back to score at Tampa when Video Mov was the only class dropper in a 2-lifetime sprint.  While she had lost in this restricted company, the class drop and with top rider Antonio Gallardo riding for trainer Jamie Ness - an absurd 36% winning team - she was the handy winner at double the bet.  That was at about 2 pm.  From that point in time until Kim and I went to dinner a little after five I cashed one more ticket.  A long afternoon :(  The "highlights" - in the second of the graded stakes, the Grade 3 Hal's Hope the two obvious choices were Matrooh and Mshawish who had finished within 3/4 of a length of each other in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last time out.  Matrooh looked to be a perfect fit for the race and had the form of a rising star.  Mshawish on the other hand was from the Todd Pletcher barn, but I was so confused.  This guy was a winner of $1.7 million ON THE TURF, including three turf stakes HERE last winter and had run a sharp third in the Group 1 Dubai Turf last spring against the best grass runners in the world.  WHY was the top trainer running him on the dirt in the Cigar Mile?  And when he faded after looking like a clear winner that day, why was he running him BACK ON THE DIRT today?  The only nagging thought I had was it was Pletcher at Gulfstream - do you question this guy here?  I did and paid for it as Matrooh struggled to be fourth under a less than expert ride from NY jockey Irad Ortiz, and leading rider Javier Castellano had Mshawish in perfect position to run down the front runner late.....and he paid over $6.  In the 8th at Gulfstream I again went against Pletcher - this time I broke the cardinal rule of betting against a 3yo maiden from the top barn.  To be fair, Majesto was in sharp form for a barn with a big win percentage AND had just beaten the Pletcher colt by nearly ten lengths!  As they went into the gates, I told Kim who was now with me, to watch the #3, who was Pletcher's colt.  "If he wins you'll know why I'm jumping over this ledge" I remarked.  Right to the front and the best trainer with the best jockey won a 3yo maiden race paying $12 and change - without me.  I was ill.  In the third graded stakes I made Lochte my "BEST" of the day at Gulfstream.  I've never been a big fan of his, but he was in rare form with five wins from nine starts locally, earned back-to-back triple digits while wining three straight stakes AND had three bullet works.  From the rail I thought he'd press the pace and draw off as much the best.  But within the opening 16th of a mile I was quickly at the back and the one horse I told Kim I feared, the #11 who was a front runner that I thought wouldn't clear under Julian Leparoux DID clear, slowed the pace and wired the field while I was way too far back finishing a belated fourth at 2/1.  The one highlight of the afternoon came in the one race I liked from Laurel.  I had looked at the entries here to see if I wanted to download the card and there was little of interest until I saw the entries for the eighth.  This was their "feature," a nw3x allowance and the listed favorite was 3/5 in the program!  I know this guy, Bill Mott's Mean Season.  I looked him up and I recalled his story.  He'd ripped off three straight and had the looks of a sprinting star last winter in NY.  He shipped here and faded in his first stakes try, the Grade 2 GP Sprint.  But after the race it was announced he was injured - nothing serious, something only time would cure.  Mott is a very patient trainer and I told Kim he would not run a horse back to "get a race into him," he would only enter him if he was ready AND put him in a spot where he could win.  He was a "BEST" bet for me.  But when I looked at the board with ten minutes to post the #8, the horse I thought was Mean Season, was 3/1 and NOT the favorite.  I must have the wrong number or race and looked it up not once, but twice on my smart phone.  No this is the right race and horse.  Then the Laurel handicapper's selections came up on the screen - he picked the current 2/1 favorite, #5 to win over my pick, #8.  What is happening?  I had not looked at the form for the race I was betting on what I knew.  I went back and forth about should I bet or not and finally in the end I went with what I knew and made the bet.  I came up to our seats and explained to Kim that either I was stupid, or the crowd was as we watched the GP live race.  I went down afterwards to watch the simulcast.  Now Mean Season was the 4/5 favorite.  He's a front runner and as I've often said you need three things to happen when betting a front runner:  (1) they need to be on the lead (duh), (2) on the turn they need to maintain their lead, and (3) at the top of the stretch they need a spurt to extend the lead.  Well the gates opened and Mean Season immediately made a right hand turn out into the middle of the track.  Not only does this NOT put him on the lead but makes getting there, already an "issue" from the outside draw an even more difficult challenge.  But before they'd gone a quarter of a mile he'd easily recovered and was two clear.  Ok, everyone calm down, we're good.  Unless this took too much out of him - he's not raced in over 300 days!  They hit the turn and suddenly the #5 found another gear and came from four off the lead to breathing down my neck and as they spun into the stretch he went right on by to put a head in front!  If you bet a front runner the one thing that nearly NEVER works out is if you are headed, because front runners want to be on the lead and left alone - they don't like to have to fight, especially fight back after being passed.  Guess I was the stupid one.....but wait, Mean Season under top Maryland rider Trevor McCarthy was NOT done.  He battled back and at the 16th pole was back on even terms and then edged away!  Oh yes, I AM THE SMART GUY!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

It was only my fourth win of the day; first in several hours; and didn't even pay even money, but it was a feel good win as my handicapping was justified and it felt good to have a good story to tell and finally cash a ticket!  As Kim and I were seated at the restaurant I had one final bet from Gulfstream and four later plays from the Fair Grounds and Santa Anita.  I watched the finale on my phone via the live feed online and watched as Todd Pletcher's debuting MSW runner with top rider Javier Castellano finished a well beaten 8th at 5/1.  (It should be noted that after they paid $12 on a maiden I had them on a 6/5 favorite in an allowance and they ran 2nd.....I missed my chance today, face it!).  So we enjoyed an excellent meal and as I explained to Kim, it was a good day at the races, and I was close with many picks (six seconds), it just wasn't my day today - other than the big bet in NY and the big win from Laurel.  When we got home I settled in at the computer to watch the replays of three of the last four as I awaited the last race of the day via a live broadcast.  The 7th at the Fair Grounds was a nw1x allowance and my pick Sir Tiz was the 4/5 favorite.  The track profile in New Orleans typically favors runners who finish strongly, and even more on a sloppy track like today.  He sat the perfect trip, moved up three-wide into the lane, dueled ----- PHOTO finish!  Second :(  The sixth at Santa Anita was the first step on their Derby trail, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes for three-year-olds going a two-turn mile.  I liked Bob Baffert's Collected.  He had won both of his first two starts, but they were on the turf.  I was going to select him but then I read DRF handicapper Brad Free's analysis - Collected was his BEST of the day.  It's an unwritten rule for me, if I've picked a runner and it's Free's BEST, I up the bet.  Collected moved strongly on the turn, forged to the lead while three wide into the stretch then opened up by daylight.  His stable mate was FLYING late to make the final margin close, but today was Collected's day and I had my next winner - and another stakes win!

Right back in the ninth at the Fair Grounds where I picked Larry Jones' debuting Sapphire Seas to win.  She rallied three wide to the front and edged clear in deep stretch - two in a row!  The last race on my sheet marked the return of 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome to the races.  After winning the first two legs of the '14 Triple Crown he'd closed out the year with a win in a Grade 1 turf race.  He'd then run a sharp second in the $10 million Dubai World Cup in the spring of 2015 after losing to Shared Belief (who was my bet of the day) in the Grade 2 San Antonio.  There was a lot of disagreement in his camp as he was sent to Royal Ascot with the intention of running on the grass but he never made it to the races; then he was supposedly pointed to the Arlington Million last August, and again didn't make it.  So today he was racing for the first time since that Dubai World Cup race.  I followed this guy enough to know that his trainer, Art Sherman who is older and "old school" would not place him in a race "to get one into him."  And while it was true that his publicly announced early target was the Dubai World Cup and today's Grade 2 San Pasqual was a prep for that, I knew they would not be running a horse not ready to win and show his best.  As he walked in the paddock and came onto the track he was greeted with a hero's welcome reminiscent of the way the fans treated the great Zenyatta and Triple Crown hero American Pharoah.  As I watched all this pre-race footage I just knew he'd win.  I'd already made him my BET of the Day out west, but as I watched live online I upped the bet.  I knew when they broke out of the gate that barring some kind of unforeseen catastrophe I was winning here.  Jockey Victor Espinoza was sitting just off the longshot leader who was being urged to keep the lead while Espinoza sat motionless aboard the champion.  And these two were daylight lengths ahead of the rest.  On the turn Chrome made his move and drew off in hand.  He was never asked through the final furlong and the final margin was smaller than it could have been if he'd been running hard, but he was much the best, an easy winner.  My HUGE $75 winning bet netted me a return of $120 as I closed the day with a third straight win and upped the day's totals to 7 wins from 25 picks for a 28% winning mark - nearly my "typical" 30%!  It was a good day in the end, saved by the "BEST Bets!"

Ft. Lauderdale Stakes Day Video Recap