A Pletcher Maiden Carries The Day!
Sunday January 17
After the big day yesterday on Sunshine Millions Day, the weather forecast proved accurate as overnight and into the early morning hours the torrential rains came down and near-hurricane force winds (cause a LOT of damage on the west coast of Florida). There were obviously changes as the races came off the turf and scratches ruled the day. I had some initial thoughts that maybe I should just sit the day out because of the weather and the changes, but I still had three races that were scheduled originally for the main track where I had picks, so I stuck with those three. Should have listened to my intuition as I went 0-for-3 on the day. In the 4th Jolly Dancer was WAY back and was running late, but was a non-threatening third at 6/5. In the 7th Todd Pletcher's Zambian Dream had "the look" of an runner that would improve here. The crowd sent him off at 6/5, but he too was only third best. And finally, I closed the day out with a GP 40% Club play for the Pletcher barn with Broadway Gal in a nw1x allowance for 3yo fillies. She was a big 8/1, but was a non-threatening third.
Monday January 18
The weather cleared and a cold front had come through plummeting the Florida temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. The rain had soaked the course, but the great track crew had it ready for racing - but to give it a little more time to dry out they took the early turf race - the 5th - off the inner course but left the rest on throughout the latter part of the card. When I'd handicapped the card I felt like the racing secretary had put out the word that if you've struggled and have horses that have run poorly, today is your day. Seemed like every race was full of horses with slow figures, inconsistent if not simply bad form, trained by conditioners who had very low percentages for the most part. No picks in the first or second, but in the third, a bottom level maiden claimer for older I had what looked like a solid winner. Frank's Star looked truly formidable, but was certain to be bet to odds on. He was 4/5 in the program and had run a gigantic 85 Beyer in his debut last year. Then he was a good 4th with a 62 Beyer in his second start. BOTH of these were in MSW company. Today he was plummeting to a $12.5K maiden claimer. Owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Mike Petro do this all the time - their philosophy is they just want to win races, so they will drop their runners to a spot where they aren't competitive, but should be standouts. The way they play the game is they will gladly take the winner's share of the purse and cash in on the claiming sale, then go get another runner to add to their big stock of claiming runners. Like most Calabrese runners there was no fear of the layoff, Frank's Star had fired a best-of-62 bullet work a month ago. He was 4/5 as they approached the gate and I was salivating over that price; then 2/5 at the first call, but as they hit the far turn he was 1/5. Jockey Paco Lopez had him well in hand throughout the race and won as easily as a 1/5 runner should, just coasting home by daylight.
My triple investment generated a return of nearly $20. No pick in the 4th where there were nine slow, bad basement level maidens. In the fifth, the one race that was taken off the turf, I had liked Todd Pletcher's Golden Delicious. I was actually glad that this was moved to the main track because the one area where Pletcher is not quite as good as in all other categories is on the turf; so when this became a 5 furlong dirt sprint I had no problem sticking with him. For some reason the crowd was all over another runner and bet him down to even money. That one was dueling with another front runner as they entered the stretch. Golden Delicious was shifting out three wide for clear run, but was some three or four lengths off the leaders at the furlong marker. He was gaining, but still at least a length back at the 16th pose. But visually you could see him find another gear and he blew by suddenly to win going away! I was so very glad I stuck with my choice, because not only was he not the favorite, but he was a huge price (for a Pletcher 3yo maiden at Gulfstream)......
The $9.20 payoff combined with my typical double investment on Pletcher runners would get me nearly $50 back! I'm a winner on the day! I lost the last two.....I almost changed my bet in the 7th when Complicated was running on the turf for Shug McGaughey and Javier Castellano. That's a big 44% GP Club play, but McGaughey was interviewed in the paddock and he remarked that they, "just hoped to get a good race into her to set her up for something later." That doesn't sound convincing. But sometimes trainers are really conservative with their remarks to guard against losing for the owners reactions. She made a strong bid, took the lead, but was tired in the final 100 yards and was a close third. In the 11th Ramble was another GP 40% Club play on the turf. Ran a dismal 6th as the 6/5 favorite. But, I was happy with the 4/2-0-1 day with a clear profit. For the week my totals were:
58 Selections / 20 WINS - 16 2nds - 7 thirds
34.5% WINS - Profit Of Nearly $175
Week 6 Highlights
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