Sunday, February 28, 2016

Feb. 27 - Fountain of Youth Day

WHAT A DAY! / WHAT A WEEKEND
The BEST TWO DAYS EVER At Gulfstream Park

Well, I have to admit, I did not see this coming and to say "I was on fire" today is quite an amusing but accurate way to describe the most fabulous day.  It simply could not have gone much better if I'd scripted it.  But enough superlatives, let's get into just what happened.  Wow.....amazing!  So, as you can see in the banner above, the weather was spectacular - a picture, post-card kind of day that the marketing department at Gulfstream could only wish for in their dreams for such a H-U-G-E day of racing.  Not only was the card itself gigantic with EIGHT STAKES races, SIX GRADED, but there were FOUR superstars of the thoroughbred racing world running today to highlight four of the graded events.  When my Mom had booked her trip to Ft. Lauderdale for the winter we had talked about having a "track day," which is usually on a Saturday.  And the plans - if you've followed my current journal entries - for the first weekend were to fly to Houston, leaving only today for our "track day."  But the available flights and/or costs made it difficult for my Mom to go home tomorrow, so she booked a flight for 6 pm this evening.  At the time I told her that this was fine and did not even look at the calendar.  So when the dates got closer and I realized that today was Fountain of Youth Stakes Day I knew I had a problem!  So grateful to my lovely wife Kim who is so supportive and understanding of my passion for racing and to my Mom to make this all work in a way we were all happy.  We needed to get Mom to Ft. Lauderdale International by about 4:30 pm for her flight, but if I were to run here to the airport I would miss a lot of the big races.  So Kim agreed to make a day of it and my Mom agreed to be packed and ready to go very early to come with us to the track.  At 10:15 am Mom and I left for Gulfstream Park and had left her luggage in Kim's trunk.  Kim followed within a half an hour and by 11:15 am we were seated at The Yardhouse for lunch.  I had reserved three seats in "our section" and had been in touch with my buddy Jim Anderson who got a seat behind us to join me for the day.  The plan was for the girls to leave the races after the 8th and Kim would drop my Mom off at the airport and head for home as that was more than enough of a racing day for her.  And bless her soul, she's been fighting a terrible cold/cough/allergies as well.  I didn't plan it this way, but the selections also fit nicely into the plan as I had two minimum bets in the 1st and 3rd at Gulfstream before everything got going "for real" at about 1:30 pm with the opener at Aqueduct.  And to add to the perfect start, our seats - outside in picturesque upper-60s degree weather - looked right at a 50 inch flat screen TV broadcasting the races right to our table!  Everyone had a very good lunch and I made bets for everyone as we watched the first race be run.  My pick was 9/1 and was right there to the stretch before fading.  Mom continued her hot hand as she tabbed the winner who paid a very generous $6.80 considering it was Javier Castellano on the favorite!  We wrapped up our meal, I paid the bill and we headed to our seats where Jim had just arrived.  Mom made her first set of bets and up we went.  The obligatory photo op on the rail preceded the climb up the stairs......

Greetings all the way around and now Jim and I addressed the "elephant in the room."  We had no longer sat down when he said, "I watched your video from yesterday, you both had a big day yesterday.  Have to admit I'm a little concerned......" And I replied that I too was a bit worried, but had been trying to not think about it; then pointed out that HE had now voiced the issue and if our selections were "jinxed" it was all on him for saying it out loud!  I mean really, what are the odds that after a SEVEN WIN day yesterday that I would have another big day?  I had been concerned enough to consider perhaps I might want to scale back some of my big plays on the day, but had decided to wait until the racing was underway to make the final call on that - especially on Cathryn Sophia in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and Mohaymen in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth where both would be very prohibitive favorites and a big play like I had planned would not generate much of a profit - maybe, I thought, I should just bet them in small portions and be happy for the statistical win.  But that didn't sit well with me so I was up in the air.  Soon after we were seated the second race went off and I did not have a bet.  Kim bet an exacta box on my top two non-betting choices and they were near the back of the field.  But my Mom had the winner - wow, you go Mom! In the third I liked Street Gray in a wide-open Maiden Special for 3yo colts.  He was listed at 12/1 in the program and ran big to be third at 7/1 odds.  I went downstairs for my first off-track bet.  I had added selections from Aqueduct, Tampa, and Oaklawn for the day, but like yesterday was very picky about adding a win selection from off track since I had bets in twelve of the thirteen live races.  AND I knew it would be packed today so I wasn't interested in spending a lot of my day in and amongst the crowded indoor areas.  But Liberty Fuse in the opener at the NY oval looked easily best, even listed at 3/5 in the program.  Not only was she the best horse she was drawn inside and was the LONE speed.  I was grateful to get 1/2 odds and had considered upping the bet, but restrained myself.  The gates opened and she stood there flat-footed for a full count, now behind four horses out of the gate.  One of the three key factors of winning with a speed horse is the most obvious......you have to be in front.  That's out, and that was the end of that play.  She was fortunate to get 2nd, but she was simply better than the others while another 5/1 shot got an uncontested lead and coasted home.  0-for-3 to start the day and I'm having that "nagging feeling" in the back of my head about yesterday's wins vs. today's chances.  Next up was the race that I told Kim after I made the bet would give me a good indication of how the "racing gods" were going to handle my day.  It was the first of the graded events, the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint.  Even if I had not had ANY bets or wins yesterday, the set-up for this race was the perfect "track logic" to go against my pick!  Here's the back story.  I can't remember why, but I'd looked at the races at Gulfstream Park West on January 27th and in an allowance sprint XY Jet was listed as the favorite.  I thought he was overbet but he set sensational fractions (:21.3 and :44.1) while running away as much the best.  The 101 Beyer was light years better than any career number he'd ever run.  So when he came back in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector here in December he was a complete "play-against" for me.  "He's not that good" I said.  My pick, Stallwalkin' Dude, was the 7/5 favorite and was a distant fifth as XY Jet again set lighting splits and wired the field for fun (:21.4, :44.1).  Well, I told myself after that race, he was fortunate to be loose on the lead.  So when he came back in January in the Sunshine Millions Sprint I was ALL against him and backed proven stakes winner Wildcat Red with Javier Castellano.  XY Jet burst to the front and coasted while setting sizzling fractions, even faster than before (:21.3 and :43.4).  After THAT race I KNEW he was certainly a "play against" in his next start.  So now we arrive to today.  And he just looked overwhelmingly good here.  But, you know how this works - I am not a believer, finally back him and THEN he runs to my previous expectations, right?  And today we were going even further (6 1/2 furlongs); and today he WOULD have to deal with other quality front-runners; AND more importantly he'd face a colt named Ready For Rye - with Castellano - who was 2-for-2 at Gulfstream and had beaten XY Jet last winter in the Grade 2 Swale by SIXTY-TWO (ironic number, eh) lengths, after XY Jet stumbled out of the gate.  What am I thinking if I DO bet XY Jet?  But his trainer and all the "pros" said he was in such peak form he just looked really hard to go against, even at a short price, facing other speed, and going longer.  But to my credit, I not only bet him but I upped the bet to a $30 WIN ticket.  The gates opened and he stumbled out of the gate!  You've GOT to be kidding!  But he recovered nicely and was quickly in front.  The opening quarter was a fast :21.4, but that's within his normal range.  As they turned for home announcer Larry Colmus echoed my thoughts when he said, "OH MY they went the half if 43 and 4....." There is NO WAY after stumbling at the start XY Jet can carve out a half mile in :43.4 AND win, and most especially going an additional 16th of a mile.  But lo and behold the racing gods were smiling and I'm a big enough guy to admit I WAS wrong about how talented this guy is because he kept on going and won by daylight!  WOW. 

The payoff was a generous $3.00 considering the paper advantage he had.  Maybe, just maybe today might be a big day :)  I mentioned to everyone that I was so hopeful for Gulfstream and racing in general for the stars, like XY Jet to run big here.  We were the only big racing card nationally; had all these big events with multiple racing stars, on a picture-perfect day with a huge crowd on hand.  Next up was the Grade 2 Davona Dale for three-year-old fillies with eyes on the Gulfstream Park Oaks on Derby Day and perhaps the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Last month in the Grade 2 Forward Gal, the prep for this I thought the shipper Cathryn Sophia looked MUCH the best as the speed of the race.  But that day, at 1/9 odds she broke poorly and to come from off the pace.  Turned out to be a blessing in disguise as it showed she could rate.  She was breath-taking that day running way through the lane.  So, as I told Jim, today at a one-turn mile I didn't think she'd have a problem, but I wanted to see how she handled the added ground here before judging her ability to go two turns in the Oaks.  I also told him I had thought about scaling back because of her very short odds and there being some other talented fillies in here.  But I stuck with it.  Castellano was up today and he had her in the clear and third as they hit the far turn.  When he said go it was as good if not better than last time! 

A mile?  NO PROBLEM.  This gal looked so good that I even started to have thoughts of her actually standing a chance against superstar Songbird!  Hold on a tick Webby, let's not get ahead of ourselves!  Considering she'd been 1/9 last time I was "thankful" to get 1/5 and make $10 on the race.  In Aqueduct's third Rapid Rouge looked easily best (heard this before today!) and was 4/5 in the program.  Sent off at 4/5 he cruised up to the front coming out of the turn, and........hung.  Second best.  Wow, NY is killing me Smalls!  The next race at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes for sophomore fillies on the turf.  A real coup for the racing office that juvenile turf filly champion, Eclipse-award winning, Breeders' Cup Champion Catch A Glimpse had elected to kick off her sophomore season here.  So, without a race since that November championship run she could be rusty.  But a bullet work on Valentine's Day, then a near-bullet recently AND her regular rider Florent Geroux giving up his mounts at the Fair Grounds to be here indicated to me she was "live" and would run to her talent.  Right out of the gate she was on the hip of the longshot leader and tugging for Geroux to let her run.  When he turned her loose into the lane it was racing at it's finest as the champion drew off with ease to the roar of the crowd. 

AGAIN, the odds were small but were more than generous considering her major opposition was a listed stakes winner.  I had tripled the bet so I'd cash for nearly $25.  I went downstairs for an Oaklawn race and watched as my choice, the 7/5 favorite was nowhere to be found.  That's it.  When I got back to the seats I told Jim that it seemed obvious to me, I AM going to have a good day locally and I wasn't going to "waste" my money chasing winners around the country.  So I went through the last two pages of selections and crossed out all of the non-Gulfstream races except two which I thought were very solid picks.  About this time my Mom returned from the casino and asked if I wanted to see her voucher.  Sure I said - then my jaw hit the ground.......

Is my Mom having a GREAT weekend or what?!!!!  The 7th was one of the few non-stakes events, though the field was a "stakes quality" collection of fillies going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf under nw2x allowance conditions.  I didn't like the twelve post for Todd Pletcher's Itsonlyactingdad, but this filly and I have a history.  In her debut LAST winter I had made her the bet at gigantic 9/1 odds and she'd lost a head-bobbing photo.  Since then she'd won two races and had been in stakes company.  In fact, her "most recent" race was a super second place finish in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks to unbeaten champion filly, superstar Lady Eli.  The fact that this "recent" race was last JULY 4th might be a problem for many, but with Pletcher, he's even BETTER with long layoffs than under nearly any other circumstance, winning at a big 37%.  John Velazquez had him in mid-pack to the far turn and then with no where to go he was forced wide, and I mean W-I-D-E as the filly was at least eight wide out of the turn and as she hit high gear she was slammed by another filly that not only knocked her briefly off stride, but out two more paths!  But she had a full head of steam and it was only a question of if she'd run out of room.......flying finish.......WIN! 

And the price was a very rewarding $7.40 - yes, my Mom had that one as well, her fourth winning race!  The eighth at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Canadian and the "star" was Heart to Heart who was a multiple stakes winner on the grass at various distances.  But there is one thing for sure about Heart to Heart - he HAS to have the lead, and he cannot be dueling either if he is to run his race.  When he broke from the outside last time out in the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale it seemed obvious to me that all the riders would know this and even if they didn't run with him early they CERTAINLY would not let him steal off to an early, easy lead.  But that's what he did and romped wire-to-wire.  He won't do that again I said that day.  So as I looked over the field, oh my, there is NO ONE who will run with him.  Another jockey is going to have to sacrifice his chances at winning to prevent Heart to Heart from going wire to wire and I just didn't think that would happen.  I told my Mom, Kim, and Jim that if he was in front at the finish line, which was a 16th of a mile from the gate, the race was OVER!  "Oh for heaven's sakes," said my Mom, "certainly the others can....."  No, I said emphatically, not trying to be rude to my Mom of course!  If he's in front, AND NOT DUELING, I qualified it, he wins.  End of story.  The gates opened and just as I'd seen it, the other riders just let jockey Julian Leparoux slide to the front without even trying and as they crossed under the wire the first time he was two in front and under a tight hold.  As they ran down the backstretch Kim said, "Are you happy with your horse?"  And just then Larry Colmus called the half mile in :48 and change - a pokey pace.  I smiled broadly and replied, "I am delighted!"  Sure enough, he was a length and a half in front at the top of the lane and when asked to run just burst away to score handily - my FIFTH win of the day here at Gulfstream Park - WHAT A DAY! 

I had tripled the bet so his 6/5 odds got me a return of nearly $30!  Sadly, it was time for my Mom to go :(  Kim went to get the car and I walked her out to the pick-up area.  We had the BEST visit and we were so very active, I hope we didn't wear her out!  As they drove away I headed into the simulcast area.  I had scratched a MSW at Tampa and an allowance at Aqueduct but there was the 8th at Tampa, another MSW sprint for 3yo that I did play.  As I waited for the horses to reach the gate I got a text from Jeff who had sent me a couple of earlier text messages as he was playing the races with "our" twinspires account.  He wrote, "I had that Gallardo (leading rider at Tampa) on the $21 horse, $10 to win!"  Wait, what?  I checked.  Sure enough that Tampa race I scratched, I'd had a $21 winner on my sheet and passed.  Sigh, you win some, you lose some.  We'll see at the end of the day how my decision turns out overall.  In THIS Tampa race, going a short 5 1/2 furlongs Inacto was sent out by trainer Eddie Loza who was winning a spectacular 47% at Tampa; his debut runners were winning at a 35% clip and top rider Antonio Gallardo was winning for him at a big 42%.  Seemed a very likely winner and he was 7/5 as they left the gate - well, I should say as the others left the gate because he was off slowly.  But he rushed up to stalk the 2/1 front runner.  Pinned on the rail he tried to come up the rail in tight quarters.  Couldn't get through and it looked to me like he had to take up briefly.  Second.  Hmmmm, was that enough to warrant, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there is a Stewards' Inquiry into the stretch run!"  It took a good ten minutes of various angles in slow motion and regular speed and it was a toss-up in my opinion.  But in the end the winner was DQ'd and I was placed on top!  WHOOO HOOOO!  It truly is my day today!  The 9th at Gulfstream was a toss-up, the Sand Springs Stakes on the turf.  I went with 30/1 program choice Elusive Collection.  He was bet down to 5/1 and ran solidly to be 4th - a minimum bet loss.  In the 10th I thought Aripeka had a solid chance in an allowance race.  Right there at 5/1 into the lane, then evenly to the wire, fifth.  Next up was the last of my off-track picks.  The feature at Aqueduct was The Busher Stakes for 3yo fillies.  This is the prep for NY fillies heading to the Gazelle and then on to the Oaks.  Todd Pletcher sent out two and of the two I liked Mo d'Amour.  She had won decisively in her last at Laurel, but what caught my eye was the bullet work.  This has proven to be a strong win angle for me, and this one, a best-of-101 move (WOW), got my attention.  AND she was 5/1 in the program.  I was very surprised that she was 7/2 as they moved into the gate and floated up to 4/1 by the time they left the gate.  But through the far turn she seemed to have no kick.  Once into the lane however the rider swung her four-wide and into the clear and her interest immediately was piqued.  She hit a whole other gear and blew by to win going away! 

The double investment with the $10 payoff meant I had a $50 winning ticket in my hands!   The 11th at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes and my pick, a Pletcher colt scratched.  I tried to find another runner I liked, but couldn't so I passed.  I had scratched the 7th at Oaklawn off my sheet and so now we were at the moment of truth.  Time for the Grade 2, $400K Fountain of Youth.  Jim and I talked quite a bit about it, as THE question was.....is Mohaymen really as good as advertised?  I had made up my mind about an hour earlier that he was indeed.  He's not considered the best Kentucky Derby prospect on the east coast because everyone is guessing or foolish!  And I had been "wowed" by his win in the Grade 2 Holy Bull.  I was "all in" on the "BET of the Day!"  As they left the gate his odds had floated up from 1/9 to a fair 1/5, and then finally one more click as they hit the first turn a more than generous 2/5 considering the short field and his apparent edge.  He did not break very sharply and a horse came out on him into the first turn causing him to be a bit wide and fifth of six as they hit the backstretch.  Trouble?  Jockey Junior Alvarado let him get settled and by the time they hit the far turn he was in perfect striking position of Todd Pletcher's unbeaten Zulu and the unbeaten winner of the Mucho Macho Stakes here on Jan. 1, Awesome Banner.  Zulu and Mohaymen quickly disposed of that one and the two of them turned for home shoulder to shoulder.  Now IT'S ON!  They sprinted to the first finish line, but Zulu was all out while Mohaymen was cruising and he easily edged clear in what was like a good workout.  He didn't coast, he had to work a little, but he'd won decisively. 



My $100 WIN ticket, thanks to the odds floating up, was going to net me a nice profit of $40 which was very, very generous for the leading Derby candidate in a six-horse field I thought.  AND it was my SIXTH WIN at Gulfstream today.  WOW.


This makes him a perfect 5-for-5 and now on a collision course with the undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion Nyquist who is schedule to ship her for the April 2nd Florida Derby!  It's going to be EPIC if both train well and run their race.  The finale was anti-climatic as Pletcher's American Patriot was boxed in from the backstretch to the 16th pole before he could run - a fast closing third at 6/5.  Jim and I said our farewells after he videoed my final comments and I headed to the car.  But on the way I ran into trainer Chad Brown - shook his hand and we chatted for just a minute - cool beans!  After the Fountain of Youth Jeff called and told me about his day.  Ironically I'd just told Jim about how I was reluctant to bet large amounts online because I don't have that big of a balance carried in my account, and Jeff talked about his big day which had included a $100 WIN bet on Mohaymen!  Check out his results in "our account:" 

Well done my son!  As we were hanging up he congratulated me on my day and said, "you were on fire today!"  Which leads me to a good story I had alluded to at the beginning.  In the middle of the day I was weaving my way through the crowded breezeway when some guy was waving his hands around wildly and as I walked by he hit me in the belly.  I looked down at my shirt and saw sparks, then smoke!  I glanced at him and he was holding a lit cigarette in his hand.  I gave this idiotic look and said questioningly, "Sorry?"  Yeah, I guess!  So literally, I WAS ON FIRE (briefly).  The bad news is it was a new shirt I'd bought myself for Valentines Day and now it has a nice burn hole in it that cannot be repaired.  Sigh....well, makes for a good story at least.  For the day I was an amazing EIGHT-for-SIXTEEN with a profit of nearly $125!  How did the races I scratched turn out?  I would have lost all but the one Tampa race and had a net loss for the set of races - another good call to pass on those!  For the weekend I was an amazing 13-for-20 in Gulfstream races, for a net profit of $183 dollars; and overall I was 18-for-35 for an overall profit of nearly $200 for the weekend!  What an AMAZING weekend.  To be honest after back-to-back days on track and multiple track handicapping I'm spent.  So tomorrow will be a "dark day" for me even though I'd already handicapped.  No more racing until Wednesday when we gear up again and make the final two week push before leaving for France - and upon our return the Florida Derby!

Fountain Of Youth Day
Video Highlights




Week 12 Recap

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Feb. 26 - Day 59

Mom's BIG DAY At The Races!

Today was the day that we were able to fit in a "day at the races" for my Mom, and oh what a day it was!  The first thing that deserves mention was that after having only four selections Wednesday and the same small number on Thursday, I wondered this morning if the fact that I had NINE picks from eleven races on the card was due to my truly finding legitimate win candidates, or did I have more bets because I was heading to the races with Mom?  So much so that I considered re-examining my analysis and tossing or changing the wagers.  But in the end I decided I had not gone into the handicapping process for today with the idea of trying to find bets for the day.  I had in fact handicapped the races at Aqueduct, Tampa, Oaklawn, the Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita as well.  Now those venues I did try to be very selective I will admit.  So as Mom and I headed out on a chilly - by Florida standards - Friday afternoon I had three pages of selections.  I wore for the day an outfit that Kim had purchased for me specifically for our upcoming France River cruise - a longsleeve, but light dry-fit shirt that is designed to hold in body heat and a sleeveless outer jacket that is very warm.  Mom and I posed for a photo op before taking our seats and the action got underway.  I did not have a bet in the opener, but Mom went with my third choice who drew off an paid over $13!  WELL DONE my Mother!  I had a pick in the second at Tampa - Corinthian Spire ran a big race at huge 12/1 odds, but was third.  In the second at Gulfstream I backed Tapkee who was the 5/2 second choice, fourth.  My Mom again went with my 3rd choice and won, nearly $8.  My Mom is having a very good day already!  I finally got going in New York where the opener there was a starter optional claiming sprint and Voluntario looked to be odds on.  He'd romped for a $50K price tag then was a good fourth in stakes company at Laurel.  He came out of that race, off a layoff to run here at this level and distance as the 1/2 favorite.  But that day he stumbled at the start only to be bumped in the lane as well and finishing third.  His last THREE speed figures were easily a pole better than any number earned by today's rivals - and he ran to those numbers winning in hand.  Of course he was odds-on, but I had a prime time bet on him and scored my first win of the day.  The third at Gulfstream was a turf sprint for non-winners of two lifetime carrying a $16k price tag.  It looked to me like Black Jet was the obvious winner.  The filly had already lost in conditioned company like this, but so had everyone else (or was a last-out maiden winner).  But Black Jet had yet to run a bad race on the grass, and in a conditioned claimer consistency counts for a lot.  In addition she was just a good third in a $30K 2L spot so the drop in class made her the pick.  She stalked the 6/1 front runner through the turn and glided up to challenge as heads turned for home.   The two dueled for a 16th of a mile and then Black Jet put a head in front at the 16th pole.  It appeared she would edge away and the rider seemed to think that as well while simply hand riding her.  But the filly inside would not quit and it was very tight on the wire, but I was sure I'd won. 

As the 3/2 favorite she only paid $5 and I had the minimum, but a win is a win :)  My Mom also had that one - three in a row my Mother!  The 4th at Tampa was my next selection, that one scratched so next on the board was the 4th at Gulfstream.  Of all the picks on the day this one I was certain my Mom would have.  Not because of her handicapping skills - she likes the names and jockeys (but does quite well with that "system") but because my top choice was Lazarus Project.  When I was in high school my Mom worked at Lazarus Department Store and it was always THE department store for most of our shopping for years at the Westland Mall.  That would count in my Mom's handicapping logic.  For me it was all about how you interpreted the two back huge Beyer figure of 82.  All of the other speed figures earned by Lazarus Project were significantly below that and would make him "just another runner" in here.  But if able to run back to that number, he was your winner.  I thought you could make multiple excuses for his debut before that effort - chased a strong winner and was a dozen clear of the rest of the field (and it WAS his debut after all); then the big win; and in his most recent again I thought there were multiple excuses:  on synthetic, first try against winners, and it was in a STAKES race.  The crowd agreed and sent him off as the 4/5 favorite.  As they ran through the turn jockey John Velazquez was pinned behind a trio of runners and could not get outside because a runner was closing four-wide on the outside.  As they turned for home he had Lazarus ready to run, but had to wait, then shifted out four wide into the center of the track with a furlong to go.  Finally found his best stride and was gaining with every step....PHOTO FINISH! 

WHEW, just up to win!  I had doubled the bet so I would be cashing for nearly $20.  I turned to Mom and said confidently, "You had that one right?"  She didn't!  Her first loss of the day!  Surprising I thought.  I was in the breezeway looking up at the TV monitors as they approached the ate in the 3rd at Aqueduct, an entry level allowance for fillies and I had doubled the bet on Head Shrinker, a Michael Repole-owned filly that had run second behind the very talented Cutthecouponsannie last time out.  She was the 8/5 choice but then the camera swung to a rider taking the saddle off of a horse as a late scratch - hey, that looks like the silks of MY rider.  It was :(  I briefly considered changing my bet to the favorite who the crowd had been betting nearly as strongly as my choice, but decided against it.  She won, sigh.....wasn't my pick anyway though.  Back to the seats to watch Gulfstream's fifth race, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile.  I thought that The Long Walk would be the favorite, and would not surprise if he won with top rider Javier Castellano on board.  But the barn was a dismal 0-for-28 this winter - I'm not betting that, especially as the favorite.  I found instead a DOUBLE Gulfstream 40% Club play in Chovanes.  Trainer Jorge Navarro is having a career meet winning at 30% overall and chasing only Todd Pletcher (11-time training king here) in the standings.  The class drop (GP angle #1) and the turn back from a nine furlong race (GP angle #2) both set this one up I thought.  Also liked that he'd broken from the far outside in the last three but today got an inside draw.  Jockey switch to journeyman Edgar Zayas, who was winning at a big 29% for Navarro sealed the deal.  Broke sharply and went straight to the front.  The margin was a length and a half into the stretch and just kept expanding as he opened up under mild urging to draw off impressively! 

And did you see the price?  An amazing $9.60 meaning I'd cash for almost $50!  WHOOO HOOO!  The 2nd at Oaklawn saw my choice, Polite Pearl - who was 9/2 in the DRF odds, but 10/1 at post time, sigh...... - ran evenly to finish 4th.  The sixth at Gulfstream was another maiden claiming event, this one going seven furlongs for three-year-olds and up.  Alabama Slim was my pick, and as I had looked over the race I had to remark in my analysis that this was NOT the best example of what is billed as "Championship Racing" here in the winter months.  Seven of the ten slated to start had already been beaten multiple times at this basement level $12,500K level.  The class droppers carried these "credentials:"  #4 - beaten 43+ lengths last time; #8 - beaten 14 lengths last out; #9 - beaten 21 lengths last time; #10 - beaten 25+ lengths last time; and #11 - beaten 29 1/2 lengths in his last.  OUCH.....toss all those guys.  By process of elimination, it made Alabama Slim, who was "only" beaten six lengths at Tampa last time out for double the price of $25K as the choice.  The crowd saw the same numbers I did and sent him off as the 7/5 favorite.  Pressed the pace into the turn, opened up by daylight and looked like an easy winner at the 16th pole.  A late charge cut the margin, but he was on the wire first without any problem, my FOURTH WIN in a row and my Mom's fifth win of the day. 

Nothing anywhere else so I stayed in the grandstands awaiting the 7th here.  This was a nine furlong turf event for older Maiden Special runners.  If you just looked at the past performances you would have to be strongly inclined to pick Animal Instinct.  After being off since 2014 he'd come back off that sixteen month layoff to make just his second career start to be a FLYING third while missing by a diminishing length, earning a strong 79 Beyer figure.  You had to like that with what ever troubles he'd had that the connections were willing to be patient and not only come back with him, but had enough faith in him to NOT offer him for a claiming price.  Top jockey John Velazquez was riding, so what's the problem?  Well, as I've discovered in my handicapping career and have remarked several times, handicapping is like having a tool box.  And while you need different tools for different races, some tools are often more important than others while not being THE deciding factor.  For me my betting selections nearly always have to not only be a contender as a race horse, but before I bet my money I want a good rider and a good trainer.  Graham Motion is one of the better trainers around - he's won Breeders' Cup races and won the $10 Million Dubai World Cup.  He's well known for getting horses ready to run huge off a layoff, like Animal Instinct did.  But this winter, he's really, REALLY struggling with a single win, that's right, ONE of thirty-nine starters.  Oh man, that's really hard to take!  But when I considered this I recalled two years ago when another top trainer was working on an 0-for-50 record here at about this time of year and his logical winner scored.  I thought, at SOME POINT he has to win, and this one looks very legitimate to me.  I found it interesting and it drew a wry smile from me when I heard NY analyst Andy Serling tell everyone that because of Motion's record he was singling another horse in his Pick-Six ticket.  If I'm right about Animal Instinct, not only do I cash, but Serling is immediately knocked out of his big ticket where he encouraged you to spend over $60.  BAD handicapping I thought - even with the record and reservations, you don't leave him out of a multi-race ticket, do you?  Duh.  He sat four off the leader into the turn, then Velazquez gave him his cue and he began rolling three wide, gaining on the 7/2 leader.  As they spun into the turn he blew by Serling's single (3/1) who hung like a clothes line of wet clothes - ha ha ha - and drew up alongside the long-time leader.  OK, here's where we find out if Motion can win a race, finally.  They dueled inside the final 200 yards with Animal Instinct edging closer and closer to the lead - PHOTO FINISH! 

But I knew it wasn't that close even if it was officially a photo.  I had won my FIFTH of the day (Mom's sixth - see our video clip celebration below!).  Of course the icing on the cake was Serling being knocked out of the Pick-Six :)  I had four races from around the country up next, and no bet in the 8th at Gulfstream before Mom & I would head out to meet Kim for dinner at a Mexican restaurant.  ONE-TWO-THREE-FOUR all went down at short odds .... 9th at even money, 3rd at 3/2, 6th at 6/5, and 4th at 3/2.  WOW.  That puts a damper on the day.  That was when I made a "command decision."  Such a banner day at Gulfstream, let's just make those late bets, stick with any off-track SOLID picks, and toss the others.  So I bet the 9th, 10th, and 11th here at Gulfstream and one race at Oaklawn (a prime time play), and one at Santa Anita (class dropping maiden).  We headed out and arrived at the restaurant just as Kim got there.  Enjoyed a good dinner and came home for the evening.  Mom had a great day cashing on six of eight races and now I'd find out how my decision and selections would finalize my day.  In the 9th I liked Behzad's Pride, a lot.  He "should" win I had written as he was the lone 3x winner in the field and the only other time he'd raced for a claiming tag, he'd won decisively.  He was getting top jock Castellano and dropping out of a starter stakes last out.  Pressed the leader through the turn while being confidently handled, opened up by daylight and drew off as much the best!  ANOTHER WIN at Gulfstream - WOW. 

I thought that the 6/5 price was more than fair and my winning ticket would be worth nearly $25.  The lone Oaklawn race was next.  This was a nw2x allowance and I wrote "one of two things happens here...." either Union Jackson wins as MUCH the best, or he's off the board, an obvious lost cause.  He'd earned a 91 in his debut when second, then back-to-back 96 figures in two wins.  He disappointed in a November allowance and was off until a month ago.  He broke poorly at 2/5 and was 5-wide into the stretch.  Second off the shelf I expected improvement, especially with a clean break.  He did NOT break cleanly, but split horses and got to the front easily.  When asked the question in mid-stretch as the late runners began their move he drew off under a hand ride!  My big-time play earned nearly $40 on that ticket!  Next up was the 10th at Gulfstream and this entry level allowance featured not one but TWO Todd Pletcher runners.  I thought that Pinstripe was the better of the two.  He had won with authority in his GP and career debut, like most Pletcher 3yo runners here, then was sent to Ocala to run in the Breeders' Stakes there.  He was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite but broke DEAD last and just coasted around the track.  Back to Gulfstream with Castellano, I liked his chances.  He went right to the front and was L-O-N-G gone! 

I wrote down on my sheet how my double-investment would get me back almost $30 when I noticed, hey, I had TRIPLED the bet, not doubled it!  WHOOOO HOOOO!  The ticket is worth more than $40 on my SEVENTH win at Gulfstream - the most I've had the entire season on one day locally.  Missed in the finale at 2/1 when third, but I closed out the day with another win at Santa Anita when Amazing Lady was much the best as the 1/2 favorite, and I'd collect another $15.  For the day I finished a sensational 10-for-19 and a profit of almost $75!  What a great day.  And oh, those races I passed....would have LOST all seven of them.  Just another great decision on a wonderful day at the track!

February 26th Highlights
Mom's Big Day At Gulfstream

Friday, February 26, 2016

Feb. 24-26 - Days 57-59

Fountain of Youth Stakes Week

My Mom's visit continued this week and we have been so busy!  After arriving last Wednesday evening we went to a Panthers game Thursday, flew to Houston Friday, all day with the family there and out to eat Saturday, flew home Sunday (arriving at 12:30 am); drove to Orlando & back to see the "kids" Monday (again arriving home at 12:30 am), had a "night off" Tuesday; out to eat at the Sea Watch restaurant Wednesday; and then another hockey game Thursday!  Meanwhile I've kept up with the daily handicapping, wagering, watching races and keeping the journals going.  The racing week started with an 0-for day on Wednesday as I had a single second place finish and then off the board in the other three.

Thursday February 25
Back in the winner's circle today with BOTH the first two selections!  In the second, my first pick of the day, I went with Chad Brown's first-time-starter Noble Beauty in a $75K Maiden Claimer for three-year-old fillies on the turf.  With top jockey Javier Castellano they are winning at over 30%.  But when the gates opened she was off slowly and before they hit the first turn she was so far out of it that even her chicklet wasn't on the TV screen.  As the field approached the far turn I could see the little #6 chicklet coming into the picture and then there she was making up ground.  Midway on the turn she was behind horses and had to hold her pattern.  But when the field straightened for home and she got clear sailing she just inhaled the field as much, MUCH the best! 

The best part for me was not only cashing a ticket but the big $6.20 payoff meant I'd collect over $30!  Next on my sheet was the 4th.  I had reservations about putting Hanover Honey on my selection list just from a handicapping angle, but the numbers said she HAD to be the best horse.  Of the forty-three races run by her fellow maiden claiming rivals today the last two figures earned by Hanover Honey were DAYLIGHT better; and her two starts prior to falling three back were a pole better.  If she just ran a typical race she SHOULD win.  The only one had back figures to be competitive came from a barn that was 0-for-18 at the meet.  But my reservations were that Hanover Honey's trainer was only 2-for-43 and Hanover Honey had already gone down to defeat eight times, the last two as the post-time favorite.  But I thought I could make excuses for her last two defeats and with the number advantage I made her my double investment.  As they hit the far turn she was in position to make a move but seemed to be spinning her wheels - well, that's what happens when you go out for a barn than cannot figure how to win, I thought.  But then as they turned for home a narrow seam opened on the rail and she SQUEEZED through to get to the lead, and then barely held off a longshot closer on the outside! 

Back-to-back wins!  Cashed for over $20 and I'm guaranteed a winning day!  In the eighth my selection went straight to the back of the field and showed little.  My final selection was in the 11th, a claiming event going a one-turn mile.  The 4/5 favorite was on the lead but my choice, Not Welcome was pressing on the outside at 7/2.  He surged to catch the leader and they dueled to the 16th pole, but I simply was second best and well clear of the rest of the field as the favorite scored.  Still, 2-for-4 on the day with a nice profit.  Tomorrow Mom & I are headed out and I've got selections from not only Gulfstream, but from four other tracks - two of which (Santa Anita & the Fair Grounds) will run late into the evening after we've left!

Monday, February 22, 2016

Feb. 21 - Day 56

One WIN To Close The Week

Today we left Houston - the flight took off at 8 pm Houston time, which made it 9 pm our time.  We landed at 11 pm and were home a little before midnight.  I had made six selections for the Sunday card and so I watched the replays via the Gulfstream YouTube channel.  Only one win, which wasn't a big surprise considering the HUGE winning day on Saturday, though I wished I'd had more.  THe one win came in the third when Quick Release wired the field at odds of 1/2.  I "zigged" when I should have "zagged" twice - in the 7th a MSW on the turf I went with Castellano/Chad Brown who was third at 4/5 while a Pletcher runner won and paid $13 and change (will I EVER learn?).  And in the featured Margate Handicap there were two coming off a layoff that figured best.  I went with the one that looked live to me, the other's trainer had been quoted that they just wanted to get a race into her.  She walked with it at a nice price while my pick was 5th at 4/5 odds.  Wow.  To see photos from our weekend in Houston, click here.

Week 11 Highlights

Houston Weekend

Houston Family Weekend
February 19 - 21






Getting Tatoos





Getting Dizzy With Grandma







Biker Cameron















Singing To Anthony