An AMAZING Statistic
One day off after the holiday racing and right back at it today! I found the Wednesday card lacking in many good opportunities but found four selections from the ten race program. But when I signed on early in the afternoon to check for changes I found that two of my four selections had been scratched leaving me with two double investments. In the second I liked Shaft of Light who was a Gulfstream Park 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro - in fact it was a double club angle as the barn wins at club level figures with both class drops and turf-to-dirt surface changes. I particularly enjoyed winning this race because analyst Andy Serling pointed out on air that Navarro was weak with his class droppers - duh, what numbers are you looking at Mr. New York analyst? I get it that he might not like to bet the chalk, but when Shaft of Light rolled to a FIFTEEN LENGTH advantage in mid-stretch, how wrong could he be? :) MUCH the best for sure. With the $3.80 payoff I was guaranteed to at least break event (well, within a dollar) for the day.
Through the first nine races none of the other races where I had listed a primary pick won - including in the 6th where I bet on Bold Bid who was a GP 40% Club play for Mark Casse - went off at 7/5 and faded badly on the turn. But in the finale I had named Elia at 10/1 in the program as my upset choice. I just had a "feeling" about his ability to steal that turf sprint first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness. But, I was trying to be conservative with my bets and only play where I felt I had a real advantage so I passed the race. Right to the front and long gone at a $13.80 payoff. Would have liked to have had that one. Ever since leaving the races on Monday I had wondered about a statistic. In the fifth on Monday when Ousby was photo-finished out of the win, I was curious about my "BET of the Day" statistics because when Ousby did NOT win with that moniker attached, I was curious how many times my top pick had failed to score. I couldn't remember off the top of my head when that had last happened. So I went back to the start of the Championship Meet in December and filtered out just the "BET of the Day" selections where I'd bet $50 or more to WIN....... Through today I'd made 459 selections but only fourteen of them qualified - of those I'd cashed the winning ticket on THIRTEEN, and then there was Ousby who ran 2nd......14/13-1-0! AMAZING.
Not only the winning percentage, because as you can imagine they were all short-priced favorites, but I showed a flat bet profit of over $250 and an ROI of $2.62 for ever $2 bet on a "BET of the DAY!" I then decided to go back to last April and see how I'd done for the year. From the beginning of April through February 17th, a span of almost a year, I'd had 32 qualifying selections and run up a record of 32/26-2-1 with a flat bet profit of $448! The 81% win rate is not quite as impressive as the current amazing statistic, but still, if I told you that my pick had 4-out-of-5 chance of winning and you'd cash for an average of $2.41 for ever $2 invested, wouldn't you take that bet? Pretty cool.
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