Feb. 6 Donn Handicap Day

Donn Handicap Day

The weekend saw me continue to score at a sharp rate and finish with a 40% win average and a profit overall.  It was a long weekend which started off Friday evening after the races that afternoon when Kim and I went to a fund raiser.  The pre-dinner appetizers and free bar was good, the dinner was in a word, awful.  But the highlight was running into the parents of one of my most special former students.  Katie Bonilla was one of the sweetest girls I had throughout my career and she toyed with the idea of going to my alma mater, Miami of Ohio before settling on the University of Maryland.

We have kept in contact via Facebook and I am FB friends with her Mom, Jayne.  Well at the benefit there was Jayne and she came over and just went on and on at our table about how wonderful I was and how much her daughter thought of me.  Then she went to get her husband and he and I talked about how much we love Saratoga race track.  He invited me to join them the first weekend in August but that is when we will be in Norway.  Finally, they left their table to come have dinner with us.  It was a great ego boost and made the evening well worth the less than tasty dinner.  When we arrived home our daughter Julie and her boyfriend Brendon had arrived for a weekend visit.

Saturday Feb. 6:  Donn Handicap Day

From a racing point of view today was one of the biggest days of the winter.  As I explained to Julie before they came down and we were talking about plans for the weekend, the Gulfstream Championship Meet has three Grade 1 races - the Florida Derby, the Donn Handicap and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  BOTH of the latter two were on today's card.  The day's plans were not only going to be determined by trying to do something the family wanted, but we also had tickets for our Florida Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins hockey game which started at 7 pm.  And with a sell-out anticipated that meant leaving the house no later than 6:15 pm.  After a lot of different scenarios were reviewed we finally decided that we'd go out to Gulfstream early, to get there around 11:15 or so and have an early lunch at our favorite restaurant The Yard House; watch the first half of the card and head home in time for dinner at the house and then head out to the game.  This worked ok for me because today was also a big day at Santa Anita so it's not like I was missing THE biggest races of the day by coming home early.  And it was also Louisiana Premier Night at Delta Downs where they had half a dozen stakes and I handicapped that late-night card.  We arrived at the restaurant about 11:30 and it worked out nicely as I didn't have a betting selection in the first and my pick in the second scratched.  So the first race we saw from our reserved seats in our "Florida Derby section" was the third.  Antebellum went off at 3/1 and ran evenly to finish a non-threatening third.  Next up was my "BET of the Day" at Gulfstream Park.  Lady Shipman had been sensational last year and in early October she looked to be the very likely favorite for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint when taking on the boys.  She came up short in her prep race at Keeneland but ran in the $1 Million championship and was a sharp second, losing by a diminishing neck on the line.  Since then she'd moved into the Kiaran McLaughlin barn and today she was making her 2016 debut in the $75K Ladies' Turf Sprint.  There had to be some concern about how she'd run in a new barn and off the layoff; and there is always the "first race following the BC" issue (nearly all BC runners do not fare well in their next start).  But as I told Kim, I thought McLaughlin would have her razor sharp today because he would not want to face the owners and have to explain how she missed in a $75K race after just missing in a Grade 1, $1 Million event for her previous trainer.  She went off as a prohibitive 1/5 favorite - but I thought that was "stealing" relatively speaking to her chances and was pressed early through the opening quarter.  But jockey Irad Ortiz never moved a muscle as she easily distanced herself from the field through the turn and romped home under wraps. 

I had bet $50 to win on her and cashed for $60.  Of course the family was excited because my pick won, regardless of price.  The fifth was the Grade 3 Fred Hooper and I wrote in my analysis that any one of half a dozen could win.  I put the minimum wager on Ami's Flatter who had been sensational in his most recent - he was either a rising star or that was a flash in the pan effort.  Well, Todd Pletcher's rising star Tommy Macho won and paid over $10 while my pick ran third.  In the sixth we were on the turf for the Grade 3 Suwannee River.  Again I thought any one of five could win, wide open.  Of the group I thought Tammy the Torpedo was the most likely to win if everyone ran their typical race, so I planned to bet the minimum on her.  Then I saw that BOTH Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling picked her.  This carried some weight because both typically pick against the favorite.  Then I heard Serling say she might be loose on the lead and be "very tough" to beat.  I decided to up the bet.  Sure enough, right to the front, set a measured pace and had plenty left to score by daylight!

My ticket would get me back nearly $30!  We stayed for one more when a Todd Pletcher maiden ran a disappointing fifth.  We headed for home and when we got home I was able to watch the rest of the card online, as well as both of my Santa Anita picks.  I was disappointed in the remainder of the Gulfstream selections.  Archtype ran eighth after what I thought was a questionable ride by top jockey Javier Castellano when he held him at the back.  Then Pure Sensation was a no-show as the 6/5 favorite in the Gulfstream Turf Sprint - where I'd made him a "prime time" play.  Kiaran McLaughlin's Cumberland River was 9th at 5/1 in a maiden route race and then it was time for the first of my two picks from Santa Anita.  Today was the first step towards a possible date at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks on the west coast.  First the colts in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis.  Mor Spirit was my choice.  He'd been visually impressive in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity last out (as my pick) and I thought he was the class of the field.  It was a competitive field and originally I thought I'd double the bet.  But I made the decision to go prime time on him.  As I later explained to Kim, you'd have to be an experienced race watcher to appreciate what I saw because as they hit the far turn he was moving to challenge when three wide in fourth.  And while he won but a small margin, what was impressive was how VERY confident Hall of Fame Jockey Gary Stevens was as he never asked the colt to run hard, even when they hit the 16th pole and he was still third.  He KNEW he had the horse and he was right, and left a lot in the tank for the next start.  Very impressive.

And, I was cashing for over $30.  Next up, the first of the local co-features, the Grade 1 GP Turf.  The Pizza Man was the marquee runner, and that's what led to my crafted family photo (see top).  He had run first or second in all his starts dating back over a year and he simply out-classed this field.  He had top rider Castellano and was the heavy 4/5 chalk.  But much like Archtype he was kept at the back, despite a lack of pace in the race and a slow set of fractions.  When he finally was asked to move Castellano did not give him the best chance as he was carried eight wide while making a bid and lost all chance to win, finishing out of the exacta when fifth.  Next on the sheet, which I got to watch live just before we sat down to dinner was my BET of the WEEKEND - the Grade 2 Las Virgenes for three-year-old fillies at Santa Anita.  Last year Songbird won four in a row, including three straight Grade 1 events, topped by a romping victory in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as Keith and I watched live at Keeneland.  From what I've seen she might be the best three-year-old in the country.....period.  I think (as do many others) that she would be a likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but her connections have said they are pointing for the Oaks.  Today we'd find out if she came back as a sophomore as tough as she was as a juvenile.  It wasn't a bad field, but certainly not as talented as the BC field.  She looked to be an overwhelming favorite and I debated about how much to invest because I knew from a wagering standpoint she'd be a "bad bet."  But when it came time to invest I bet the amount that reflected my confidence.  She broke sharply and was beyond impressive.  She led narrowly as they approached the far turn through honest fractions.  The riders on the other fillies began to ask for more and were riding hard - but they not only were not making up any ground, they were losing ground as Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith sat motionless on Songbird.  Through the turn the margin grew to half a dozen and he motored her down from the furlong pole home and STILL won by a pole.  WOW.

She only paid $2.10 so my "Ben Franklin" investment returned a profit of a mere $5.  But what an amazing and "WOW" performance.  Certainly the highlight of the day.  In the second Grade 1 at Gulfstream, the Donn Handicap, it was wide open.  Grade 1 winner Mshawish had earned that victory on this day last year - ON THE TURF.  But this year top trainer put him on the dirt.  He'd run fourth a Grade 1 one-turn mile at Belmont and I thought it odd he was on the dirt.  When he came back to run in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope here at a mile I was against him.  He won.  Today he was back on the dirt and again I was against him.  I found it interesting that Pletcher had three in here and both Mshawish and Standford did NOT have their usual rider, but Itsaknockout did.  And that Castellano got off of Mshawish I thought confirmed my opinion of him.  My pick, Itsaknockout was a non-threatening fourth while Mshawish won and paid $9.  Ironically on the way to the races Julie had told Brendon to look for any runner trained by Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez on board.......like Mshawish.  Should have listened to my daughter!  Off to the hockey game and we were cruising along with a 2-0 lead with five minutes to go......only to give up two late goals and send it into overtime and then lose in overtime.  At least we got a point and it was a good game to watch.  When we got home I went to the computer and everyone else headed to bed.  I had seven picks from Delta Downs.  I won the first two, both starter handicaps; lost the next two - both with even-money favorites.  Then I scored in the Premier Night Sprint when Heitai ran his record at five furlongs to 8/7-1-0. 

I felt fortunate to get 4/5 on this quality sprinter as I'm sure many handicappers did not like how he'd been caught twice recently, but those were at six furlongs.  But I lost the last two when Jet Black Magic could not catch the lone speed, second at 6/5, and then in the Premier Championship The Pickett Factor won the early pace battle, but going :22 and change and then :46 and change over a route of ground caught up with him and he was caught late, third at 3/5.  For the day I was a good seven for nineteen, 37% and it was a fun day.

Donn Handicap Day Highlight Video