Mom's BIG DAY At The Races!
Today was the day that we were able to fit in a "day at the races" for my Mom, and oh what a day it was! The first thing that deserves mention was that after having only four selections Wednesday and the same small number on Thursday, I wondered this morning if the fact that I had NINE picks from eleven races on the card was due to my truly finding legitimate win candidates, or did I have more bets because I was heading to the races with Mom? So much so that I considered re-examining my analysis and tossing or changing the wagers. But in the end I decided I had not gone into the handicapping process for today with the idea of trying to find bets for the day. I had in fact handicapped the races at Aqueduct, Tampa, Oaklawn, the Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita as well. Now those venues I did try to be very selective I will admit. So as Mom and I headed out on a chilly - by Florida standards - Friday afternoon I had three pages of selections. I wore for the day an outfit that Kim had purchased for me specifically for our upcoming France River cruise - a longsleeve, but light dry-fit shirt that is designed to hold in body heat and a sleeveless outer jacket that is very warm. Mom and I posed for a photo op before taking our seats and the action got underway. I did not have a bet in the opener, but Mom went with my third choice who drew off an paid over $13! WELL DONE my Mother! I had a pick in the second at Tampa - Corinthian Spire ran a big race at huge 12/1 odds, but was third. In the second at Gulfstream I backed Tapkee who was the 5/2 second choice, fourth. My Mom again went with my 3rd choice and won, nearly $8. My Mom is having a very good day already! I finally got going in New York where the opener there was a starter optional claiming sprint and Voluntario looked to be odds on. He'd romped for a $50K price tag then was a good fourth in stakes company at Laurel. He came out of that race, off a layoff to run here at this level and distance as the 1/2 favorite. But that day he stumbled at the start only to be bumped in the lane as well and finishing third. His last THREE speed figures were easily a pole better than any number earned by today's rivals - and he ran to those numbers winning in hand. Of course he was odds-on, but I had a prime time bet on him and scored my first win of the day. The third at Gulfstream was a turf sprint for non-winners of two lifetime carrying a $16k price tag. It looked to me like Black Jet was the obvious winner. The filly had already lost in conditioned company like this, but so had everyone else (or was a last-out maiden winner). But Black Jet had yet to run a bad race on the grass, and in a conditioned claimer consistency counts for a lot. In addition she was just a good third in a $30K 2L spot so the drop in class made her the pick. She stalked the 6/1 front runner through the turn and glided up to challenge as heads turned for home. The two dueled for a 16th of a mile and then Black Jet put a head in front at the 16th pole. It appeared she would edge away and the rider seemed to think that as well while simply hand riding her. But the filly inside would not quit and it was very tight on the wire, but I was sure I'd won.
As the 3/2 favorite she only paid $5 and I had the minimum, but a win is a win :) My Mom also had that one - three in a row my Mother! The 4th at Tampa was my next selection, that one scratched so next on the board was the 4th at Gulfstream. Of all the picks on the day this one I was certain my Mom would have. Not because of her handicapping skills - she likes the names and jockeys (but does quite well with that "system") but because my top choice was Lazarus Project. When I was in high school my Mom worked at Lazarus Department Store and it was always THE department store for most of our shopping for years at the Westland Mall. That would count in my Mom's handicapping logic. For me it was all about how you interpreted the two back huge Beyer figure of 82. All of the other speed figures earned by Lazarus Project were significantly below that and would make him "just another runner" in here. But if able to run back to that number, he was your winner. I thought you could make multiple excuses for his debut before that effort - chased a strong winner and was a dozen clear of the rest of the field (and it WAS his debut after all); then the big win; and in his most recent again I thought there were multiple excuses: on synthetic, first try against winners, and it was in a STAKES race. The crowd agreed and sent him off as the 4/5 favorite. As they ran through the turn jockey John Velazquez was pinned behind a trio of runners and could not get outside because a runner was closing four-wide on the outside. As they turned for home he had Lazarus ready to run, but had to wait, then shifted out four wide into the center of the track with a furlong to go. Finally found his best stride and was gaining with every step....PHOTO FINISH!
WHEW, just up to win! I had doubled the bet so I would be cashing for nearly $20. I turned to Mom and said confidently, "You had that one right?" She didn't! Her first loss of the day! Surprising I thought. I was in the breezeway looking up at the TV monitors as they approached the ate in the 3rd at Aqueduct, an entry level allowance for fillies and I had doubled the bet on Head Shrinker, a Michael Repole-owned filly that had run second behind the very talented Cutthecouponsannie last time out. She was the 8/5 choice but then the camera swung to a rider taking the saddle off of a horse as a late scratch - hey, that looks like the silks of MY rider. It was :( I briefly considered changing my bet to the favorite who the crowd had been betting nearly as strongly as my choice, but decided against it. She won, sigh.....wasn't my pick anyway though. Back to the seats to watch Gulfstream's fifth race, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile. I thought that The Long Walk would be the favorite, and would not surprise if he won with top rider Javier Castellano on board. But the barn was a dismal 0-for-28 this winter - I'm not betting that, especially as the favorite. I found instead a DOUBLE Gulfstream 40% Club play in Chovanes. Trainer Jorge Navarro is having a career meet winning at 30% overall and chasing only Todd Pletcher (11-time training king here) in the standings. The class drop (GP angle #1) and the turn back from a nine furlong race (GP angle #2) both set this one up I thought. Also liked that he'd broken from the far outside in the last three but today got an inside draw. Jockey switch to journeyman Edgar Zayas, who was winning at a big 29% for Navarro sealed the deal. Broke sharply and went straight to the front. The margin was a length and a half into the stretch and just kept expanding as he opened up under mild urging to draw off impressively!
And did you see the price? An amazing $9.60 meaning I'd cash for almost $50! WHOOO HOOO! The 2nd at Oaklawn saw my choice, Polite Pearl - who was 9/2 in the DRF odds, but 10/1 at post time, sigh...... - ran evenly to finish 4th. The sixth at Gulfstream was another maiden claiming event, this one going seven furlongs for three-year-olds and up. Alabama Slim was my pick, and as I had looked over the race I had to remark in my analysis that this was NOT the best example of what is billed as "Championship Racing" here in the winter months. Seven of the ten slated to start had already been beaten multiple times at this basement level $12,500K level. The class droppers carried these "credentials:" #4 - beaten 43+ lengths last time; #8 - beaten 14 lengths last out; #9 - beaten 21 lengths last time; #10 - beaten 25+ lengths last time; and #11 - beaten 29 1/2 lengths in his last. OUCH.....toss all those guys. By process of elimination, it made Alabama Slim, who was "only" beaten six lengths at Tampa last time out for double the price of $25K as the choice. The crowd saw the same numbers I did and sent him off as the 7/5 favorite. Pressed the pace into the turn, opened up by daylight and looked like an easy winner at the 16th pole. A late charge cut the margin, but he was on the wire first without any problem, my FOURTH WIN in a row and my Mom's fifth win of the day.
Nothing anywhere else so I stayed in the grandstands awaiting the 7th here. This was a nine furlong turf event for older Maiden Special runners. If you just looked at the past performances you would have to be strongly inclined to pick Animal Instinct. After being off since 2014 he'd come back off that sixteen month layoff to make just his second career start to be a FLYING third while missing by a diminishing length, earning a strong 79 Beyer figure. You had to like that with what ever troubles he'd had that the connections were willing to be patient and not only come back with him, but had enough faith in him to NOT offer him for a claiming price. Top jockey John Velazquez was riding, so what's the problem? Well, as I've discovered in my handicapping career and have remarked several times, handicapping is like having a tool box. And while you need different tools for different races, some tools are often more important than others while not being THE deciding factor. For me my betting selections nearly always have to not only be a contender as a race horse, but before I bet my money I want a good rider and a good trainer. Graham Motion is one of the better trainers around - he's won Breeders' Cup races and won the $10 Million Dubai World Cup. He's well known for getting horses ready to run huge off a layoff, like Animal Instinct did. But this winter, he's really, REALLY struggling with a single win, that's right, ONE of thirty-nine starters. Oh man, that's really hard to take! But when I considered this I recalled two years ago when another top trainer was working on an 0-for-50 record here at about this time of year and his logical winner scored. I thought, at SOME POINT he has to win, and this one looks very legitimate to me. I found it interesting and it drew a wry smile from me when I heard NY analyst Andy Serling tell everyone that because of Motion's record he was singling another horse in his Pick-Six ticket. If I'm right about Animal Instinct, not only do I cash, but Serling is immediately knocked out of his big ticket where he encouraged you to spend over $60. BAD handicapping I thought - even with the record and reservations, you don't leave him out of a multi-race ticket, do you? Duh. He sat four off the leader into the turn, then Velazquez gave him his cue and he began rolling three wide, gaining on the 7/2 leader. As they spun into the turn he blew by Serling's single (3/1) who hung like a clothes line of wet clothes - ha ha ha - and drew up alongside the long-time leader. OK, here's where we find out if Motion can win a race, finally. They dueled inside the final 200 yards with Animal Instinct edging closer and closer to the lead - PHOTO FINISH!
But I knew it wasn't that close even if it was officially a photo. I had won my FIFTH of the day (Mom's sixth - see our video clip celebration below!). Of course the icing on the cake was Serling being knocked out of the Pick-Six :) I had four races from around the country up next, and no bet in the 8th at Gulfstream before Mom & I would head out to meet Kim for dinner at a Mexican restaurant. ONE-TWO-THREE-FOUR all went down at short odds .... 9th at even money, 3rd at 3/2, 6th at 6/5, and 4th at 3/2. WOW. That puts a damper on the day. That was when I made a "command decision." Such a banner day at Gulfstream, let's just make those late bets, stick with any off-track SOLID picks, and toss the others. So I bet the 9th, 10th, and 11th here at Gulfstream and one race at Oaklawn (a prime time play), and one at Santa Anita (class dropping maiden). We headed out and arrived at the restaurant just as Kim got there. Enjoyed a good dinner and came home for the evening. Mom had a great day cashing on six of eight races and now I'd find out how my decision and selections would finalize my day. In the 9th I liked Behzad's Pride, a lot. He "should" win I had written as he was the lone 3x winner in the field and the only other time he'd raced for a claiming tag, he'd won decisively. He was getting top jock Castellano and dropping out of a starter stakes last out. Pressed the leader through the turn while being confidently handled, opened up by daylight and drew off as much the best! ANOTHER WIN at Gulfstream - WOW.
I thought that the 6/5 price was more than fair and my winning ticket would be worth nearly $25. The lone Oaklawn race was next. This was a nw2x allowance and I wrote "one of two things happens here...." either Union Jackson wins as MUCH the best, or he's off the board, an obvious lost cause. He'd earned a 91 in his debut when second, then back-to-back 96 figures in two wins. He disappointed in a November allowance and was off until a month ago. He broke poorly at 2/5 and was 5-wide into the stretch. Second off the shelf I expected improvement, especially with a clean break. He did NOT break cleanly, but split horses and got to the front easily. When asked the question in mid-stretch as the late runners began their move he drew off under a hand ride! My big-time play earned nearly $40 on that ticket! Next up was the 10th at Gulfstream and this entry level allowance featured not one but TWO Todd Pletcher runners. I thought that Pinstripe was the better of the two. He had won with authority in his GP and career debut, like most Pletcher 3yo runners here, then was sent to Ocala to run in the Breeders' Stakes there. He was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite but broke DEAD last and just coasted around the track. Back to Gulfstream with Castellano, I liked his chances. He went right to the front and was L-O-N-G gone!
I wrote down on my sheet how my double-investment would get me back almost $30 when I noticed, hey, I had TRIPLED the bet, not doubled it! WHOOOO HOOOO! The ticket is worth more than $40 on my SEVENTH win at Gulfstream - the most I've had the entire season on one day locally. Missed in the finale at 2/1 when third, but I closed out the day with another win at Santa Anita when Amazing Lady was much the best as the 1/2 favorite, and I'd collect another $15. For the day I finished a sensational 10-for-19 and a profit of almost $75! What a great day. And oh, those races I passed....would have LOST all seven of them. Just another great decision on a wonderful day at the track!
As the 3/2 favorite she only paid $5 and I had the minimum, but a win is a win :) My Mom also had that one - three in a row my Mother! The 4th at Tampa was my next selection, that one scratched so next on the board was the 4th at Gulfstream. Of all the picks on the day this one I was certain my Mom would have. Not because of her handicapping skills - she likes the names and jockeys (but does quite well with that "system") but because my top choice was Lazarus Project. When I was in high school my Mom worked at Lazarus Department Store and it was always THE department store for most of our shopping for years at the Westland Mall. That would count in my Mom's handicapping logic. For me it was all about how you interpreted the two back huge Beyer figure of 82. All of the other speed figures earned by Lazarus Project were significantly below that and would make him "just another runner" in here. But if able to run back to that number, he was your winner. I thought you could make multiple excuses for his debut before that effort - chased a strong winner and was a dozen clear of the rest of the field (and it WAS his debut after all); then the big win; and in his most recent again I thought there were multiple excuses: on synthetic, first try against winners, and it was in a STAKES race. The crowd agreed and sent him off as the 4/5 favorite. As they ran through the turn jockey John Velazquez was pinned behind a trio of runners and could not get outside because a runner was closing four-wide on the outside. As they turned for home he had Lazarus ready to run, but had to wait, then shifted out four wide into the center of the track with a furlong to go. Finally found his best stride and was gaining with every step....PHOTO FINISH!
WHEW, just up to win! I had doubled the bet so I would be cashing for nearly $20. I turned to Mom and said confidently, "You had that one right?" She didn't! Her first loss of the day! Surprising I thought. I was in the breezeway looking up at the TV monitors as they approached the ate in the 3rd at Aqueduct, an entry level allowance for fillies and I had doubled the bet on Head Shrinker, a Michael Repole-owned filly that had run second behind the very talented Cutthecouponsannie last time out. She was the 8/5 choice but then the camera swung to a rider taking the saddle off of a horse as a late scratch - hey, that looks like the silks of MY rider. It was :( I briefly considered changing my bet to the favorite who the crowd had been betting nearly as strongly as my choice, but decided against it. She won, sigh.....wasn't my pick anyway though. Back to the seats to watch Gulfstream's fifth race, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile. I thought that The Long Walk would be the favorite, and would not surprise if he won with top rider Javier Castellano on board. But the barn was a dismal 0-for-28 this winter - I'm not betting that, especially as the favorite. I found instead a DOUBLE Gulfstream 40% Club play in Chovanes. Trainer Jorge Navarro is having a career meet winning at 30% overall and chasing only Todd Pletcher (11-time training king here) in the standings. The class drop (GP angle #1) and the turn back from a nine furlong race (GP angle #2) both set this one up I thought. Also liked that he'd broken from the far outside in the last three but today got an inside draw. Jockey switch to journeyman Edgar Zayas, who was winning at a big 29% for Navarro sealed the deal. Broke sharply and went straight to the front. The margin was a length and a half into the stretch and just kept expanding as he opened up under mild urging to draw off impressively!
And did you see the price? An amazing $9.60 meaning I'd cash for almost $50! WHOOO HOOO! The 2nd at Oaklawn saw my choice, Polite Pearl - who was 9/2 in the DRF odds, but 10/1 at post time, sigh...... - ran evenly to finish 4th. The sixth at Gulfstream was another maiden claiming event, this one going seven furlongs for three-year-olds and up. Alabama Slim was my pick, and as I had looked over the race I had to remark in my analysis that this was NOT the best example of what is billed as "Championship Racing" here in the winter months. Seven of the ten slated to start had already been beaten multiple times at this basement level $12,500K level. The class droppers carried these "credentials:" #4 - beaten 43+ lengths last time; #8 - beaten 14 lengths last out; #9 - beaten 21 lengths last time; #10 - beaten 25+ lengths last time; and #11 - beaten 29 1/2 lengths in his last. OUCH.....toss all those guys. By process of elimination, it made Alabama Slim, who was "only" beaten six lengths at Tampa last time out for double the price of $25K as the choice. The crowd saw the same numbers I did and sent him off as the 7/5 favorite. Pressed the pace into the turn, opened up by daylight and looked like an easy winner at the 16th pole. A late charge cut the margin, but he was on the wire first without any problem, my FOURTH WIN in a row and my Mom's fifth win of the day.
Nothing anywhere else so I stayed in the grandstands awaiting the 7th here. This was a nine furlong turf event for older Maiden Special runners. If you just looked at the past performances you would have to be strongly inclined to pick Animal Instinct. After being off since 2014 he'd come back off that sixteen month layoff to make just his second career start to be a FLYING third while missing by a diminishing length, earning a strong 79 Beyer figure. You had to like that with what ever troubles he'd had that the connections were willing to be patient and not only come back with him, but had enough faith in him to NOT offer him for a claiming price. Top jockey John Velazquez was riding, so what's the problem? Well, as I've discovered in my handicapping career and have remarked several times, handicapping is like having a tool box. And while you need different tools for different races, some tools are often more important than others while not being THE deciding factor. For me my betting selections nearly always have to not only be a contender as a race horse, but before I bet my money I want a good rider and a good trainer. Graham Motion is one of the better trainers around - he's won Breeders' Cup races and won the $10 Million Dubai World Cup. He's well known for getting horses ready to run huge off a layoff, like Animal Instinct did. But this winter, he's really, REALLY struggling with a single win, that's right, ONE of thirty-nine starters. Oh man, that's really hard to take! But when I considered this I recalled two years ago when another top trainer was working on an 0-for-50 record here at about this time of year and his logical winner scored. I thought, at SOME POINT he has to win, and this one looks very legitimate to me. I found it interesting and it drew a wry smile from me when I heard NY analyst Andy Serling tell everyone that because of Motion's record he was singling another horse in his Pick-Six ticket. If I'm right about Animal Instinct, not only do I cash, but Serling is immediately knocked out of his big ticket where he encouraged you to spend over $60. BAD handicapping I thought - even with the record and reservations, you don't leave him out of a multi-race ticket, do you? Duh. He sat four off the leader into the turn, then Velazquez gave him his cue and he began rolling three wide, gaining on the 7/2 leader. As they spun into the turn he blew by Serling's single (3/1) who hung like a clothes line of wet clothes - ha ha ha - and drew up alongside the long-time leader. OK, here's where we find out if Motion can win a race, finally. They dueled inside the final 200 yards with Animal Instinct edging closer and closer to the lead - PHOTO FINISH!
But I knew it wasn't that close even if it was officially a photo. I had won my FIFTH of the day (Mom's sixth - see our video clip celebration below!). Of course the icing on the cake was Serling being knocked out of the Pick-Six :) I had four races from around the country up next, and no bet in the 8th at Gulfstream before Mom & I would head out to meet Kim for dinner at a Mexican restaurant. ONE-TWO-THREE-FOUR all went down at short odds .... 9th at even money, 3rd at 3/2, 6th at 6/5, and 4th at 3/2. WOW. That puts a damper on the day. That was when I made a "command decision." Such a banner day at Gulfstream, let's just make those late bets, stick with any off-track SOLID picks, and toss the others. So I bet the 9th, 10th, and 11th here at Gulfstream and one race at Oaklawn (a prime time play), and one at Santa Anita (class dropping maiden). We headed out and arrived at the restaurant just as Kim got there. Enjoyed a good dinner and came home for the evening. Mom had a great day cashing on six of eight races and now I'd find out how my decision and selections would finalize my day. In the 9th I liked Behzad's Pride, a lot. He "should" win I had written as he was the lone 3x winner in the field and the only other time he'd raced for a claiming tag, he'd won decisively. He was getting top jock Castellano and dropping out of a starter stakes last out. Pressed the leader through the turn while being confidently handled, opened up by daylight and drew off as much the best! ANOTHER WIN at Gulfstream - WOW.
I thought that the 6/5 price was more than fair and my winning ticket would be worth nearly $25. The lone Oaklawn race was next. This was a nw2x allowance and I wrote "one of two things happens here...." either Union Jackson wins as MUCH the best, or he's off the board, an obvious lost cause. He'd earned a 91 in his debut when second, then back-to-back 96 figures in two wins. He disappointed in a November allowance and was off until a month ago. He broke poorly at 2/5 and was 5-wide into the stretch. Second off the shelf I expected improvement, especially with a clean break. He did NOT break cleanly, but split horses and got to the front easily. When asked the question in mid-stretch as the late runners began their move he drew off under a hand ride! My big-time play earned nearly $40 on that ticket! Next up was the 10th at Gulfstream and this entry level allowance featured not one but TWO Todd Pletcher runners. I thought that Pinstripe was the better of the two. He had won with authority in his GP and career debut, like most Pletcher 3yo runners here, then was sent to Ocala to run in the Breeders' Stakes there. He was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite but broke DEAD last and just coasted around the track. Back to Gulfstream with Castellano, I liked his chances. He went right to the front and was L-O-N-G gone!
I wrote down on my sheet how my double-investment would get me back almost $30 when I noticed, hey, I had TRIPLED the bet, not doubled it! WHOOOO HOOOO! The ticket is worth more than $40 on my SEVENTH win at Gulfstream - the most I've had the entire season on one day locally. Missed in the finale at 2/1 when third, but I closed out the day with another win at Santa Anita when Amazing Lady was much the best as the 1/2 favorite, and I'd collect another $15. For the day I finished a sensational 10-for-19 and a profit of almost $75! What a great day. And oh, those races I passed....would have LOST all seven of them. Just another great decision on a wonderful day at the track!
February 26th Highlights
Mom's Big Day At Gulfstream
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