A BIG DAY At The Races
Tampa Bay Derby Preview Day
I couldn't have hoped for a much better day than trying to believe that I might win ALL the races, which of course will never happen. Kim was going to visit her gal-pal Elaine who lives close to Gulfstream and I couldn't stay the entire day because of hockey this evening so we decided to go together; she'd drop me off, go have her visit, return to watch a couple races and we'd head home together. This worked out very well for me because I wouldn't have to go early just to avoid the traffic and parking and I'd still get to see nearly all the big races from Tampa Bay. I was particularly interested in those races because they will serve as preps for Tampa Bay Derby Day on March 12 when I will be there. I have four tickets and had hoped Kim and her parents would join me but I think that's probably not going to happen. I didn't have a pick in the opener at Gulfstream, but my top choice won and paid $6. My first two selections were minimum plays at Tampa and Laurel. At Tampa in their second race Bet On Charlie was closing 3-wide at 4/5, but ran out of room, 2nd. At Laurel Mothernaturespell ran evenly in 6th at 3/1. It was a little after 1 pm as the horses headed to the gate for the third at Gulfstream, a one-turn mile for non-winners of two lifetime. It was a field full of runners without a lot of talent or credentials. BUT....the top two program favorites came from outfits that were 2-for-33 and 1-for-38. OUCH - those are the kind of favorites you like to bet against! I was drawn to Stevearino. This guy had a very unusual last-race running line. He'd been eighth and last some dozen lengths out at the first call. He closed well to be fourth, but was still 11 plus lengths off the leader. I thought this might be a better race that it looked on paper. He was cutting his price in half as well. As they hit the far turn the top two favorites were battling and Stevearino wasn't even in the TV picture on the jumbo-tron. But through the turn he began to pick off horses. Still way back and I almost put my camera away, but instead waited as he continued to grind away. The favorite was clear at the 16th pole, but NOT ON THE WIRE! WHOOOO HOOOO!
And the best part was the price - as a $13.80 winner I would be cashing in for nearly $35 on my first win of the day! Just as that race finished it was time for the third at Tampa and the first of my big plays. Mr. Jordan was the 3/2 favorite in the program and he deserved it. He'd won two listed stakes here at Gulfstream; won the Grade 3 Pegasus at Monmouth and had even tried American Pharoah in the Grade 1, $1 Million Haskell. Today he was in a $39K overnight handicap. Easily the speed and the class. But Joe Bravo did not get him to the front and when he made his move into the turn he ran evenly to the wire at 1/2 odds to be third. Booooo.
My next win came minutes later and it has an interesting story. I had handicapped several tracks for today, one of which was Aqueduct in New York. Before leaving for the day I had turned on the weather channel and there was a press conference from NY City where they were talking about how dangerous the cold weather was. Uh oh.....got online and went to the NYRA website, sure enough, no racing today. As I told Kim in the car, I wished I'd looked into that forecast because I would have handicapped Oaklawn instead. So when I got to the track I bought the simulcast program that included the pp's for Oaklawn. Well, ironically it also contained the Laurel races. And my next pick was to be the 4th at Laurel where I liked Dallas Cowgirl in an AOC nw2x sprint going 5 1/2 furlongs. When I checked the scratches for the day Dallas Cowgirl was one of only two scratches from my sheet. I would have passed the race but because I had the program I looked at the remaining runners. It was crystal clear that without my original selection in here, the program favorite Lovable Lady looked MUCH the best. She was sent off as the 4/5 favorite and drew off through the final furlong under a hand ride. Cashed for another near $20! I had about a half hour so I filmed a segment of my highlight video and then went inside to watch the 4th from Tampa. This was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds. With the multiple stakes on the Tampa card all the big name riders and trainers were there and NOT at Gulfstream, including Todd Pletcher and jockeys Javier Castellano & John Velazquez. And like so many sophomore MSW events here, the fourth at Tampa had a Pletcher debut runner with John Velazquez on board. Castellano was on the program favorite who was a good second at Santa Anita. That would be a strong clue, but the third place horse out of that race had run in two graded stakes after breaking her maiden AND last out had won the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland! But the barn was a weak 0-for-17 overall and 0-for-8 with first time blinkers. I thought she'd be overbet and she was as the 8/5 favorite. Meanwhile the debut runner for Pletcher, Sense of Beauty, kept floating up in price. She stalked the leaders to the turn - Wildcat Kelli faded under Castellano - and then took off for the wire, drawing off by daylight at a more-than-generous 5/2 price. The $7.20 payoff meant I'd cash for more than $35! Next up at Gulfstream was the featured 4th, the Grade 2 Royal Delta going 8 1/2 furlongs on the main track. If you remember on Donn Day I'd NOT supported Todd Pletcher's Mshawish who was a Grade 1 turf winner and he'd won back to back graded stakes, including the Donn. So here today is Sandiva who is from the same owners, and has Pletcher, and is a multiple stakes winner on the turf, but she's entered to run on the dirt. Already missed on two nice prices on Mshawish so I was in. The gates opened and she went to her knees. As a pace-presser that was the end of that. She ran on courageously to be a good second to my second choice, Penwith (who I'd made my BET OF THE DAY last time out) that paid $8.80. But when I got inside it was time for the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa. This is the last local prep for the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Like the 4th Castellano and Velazquez were riding, but here they were BOTH on Pletcher colts. Immediately I did NOT like the Castellano mount. I'd seen Gettysburg win - and remembered it well because I'd gone against Pletcher in a maiden that day and he'd won at over $12. But he'd been beaten in the race prior to that by my pick in the race. So not only had I not liked him then, now as a last-out maiden winner he was in a Grade 3 over a new track. Meanwhile, Velazquez was on Pletcher's Destin. He'd been a winner in his debut, then lost at 1/5 in his GP debut this winter, but Pletcher sent him to New Orleans and he was 4th in the Grade 3 Lecomte, the first prep towards the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. A last-out maiden who's never shipped vs. a graded-stakes placed runner who has shipped? Also, Gettysburg had won loose on the lead and that wasn't happening here. But the crowd sent him off as the 8/5 favorite. As I thought he didn't make the lead and gave it up on the far turn. Meanwhile Destin was rallying up on the outside. He was between runners into the stretch but kicked clear inside the final 16th of a mile.
And best of all......he went off at a HUGE 4/1 price so my double investment meant I'd be cashing for $50! WHOOOO HOOOO again! The final race on my first sheet was what looked like a "free bingo square." I knew I'd jinxed myself when I wrote that Laurel should be calling the Maryland Racing Media Stakes the "Laurel Free Money Give Away" with Pletcher's Mei Ling. Made a bid at 2/5 and couldn't even finish second, a disappointing third with a "prime time plus" bet down the drain. Missed at the Fair Grounds with the even money favorite who was second best and then Kim arrived. We were sitting in our seats and I told her that my pick in the sixth at Gulfstream was the #8 Star Hill. I explained it was a maiden special for 3yo colts and there were no Pletcher runners! So I thought this would be a good place for a price play. Star Hill had run third at Saratoga - which speaks to what the connections must have thought of him - behind Economic Model who ran two weeks ago in the Grade 2 Swale and was a sharp second. After Star Hill's Saratoga try he tried the Grade 2 Iroquois (as a maiden) - nothing; then last time out he was a good third, off a layoff, here at this one-turn mile behind my co-BET of the Day, Todd Pletcher's Mo Power. All of this seemed to set him up for a big effort. So, I explained this to Kim as the horses approached the gate and she looked at the board and said, "do I see that right, you're horse is 8/1?" Yes, and, I told her, I have a triple investment on him. Star Hill took some late money to knock his odds down, but the fans were all over my second choice, who I did NOT like as the 1/1 favorite. They hit the turn and the favorite was already feeling the whip while Star Hill drew up three-wide under a hand ride and ran away as much, MUCH the best. OH MY!
The last I'd looked he was 7/2 on the board so with my $15 WIN bet I was going to get about $65 back. I had Kim film me and then I went inside only to see that Star Hill had been 4/1 at post time and so I would be collecting a cool $75! NICE HANDICAPPING Mr. Mark!
I was beaming and thought that I would cash again at Laurel with my "best" there in the John B. Campbell Stakes, but then saw my pick was scratched. Sigh.....but at Tampa it was approaching post time for their 7th. This was an Optional Allowance for non-winners-of-one for three-year-olds. Yes, there was a Pletcher runner - again quite a story. Outwork debuted last April at the Keeneland meet where early 2yo colts run at 4 1/2 furlongs. He was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite and won handily. But the son of champion Uncle Mo had not been seen since. But he looked to be ultra-talented and besides Pletcher is a huge 37% winner with runners off for 180 days or more. Velazquez would be wearing the familiar Michael Repole silks, as he often does. For some reason the crowd, while smart enough to make him the favorite, allowed him to go off at 9/5. He ranged up three-wide on the turn and it was then you could see that he was a mammoth-sized colt as he towered over the runners to his inside. He caught the leaders and sprinted home as easily the best. I'd tripled the bet here so the $5.60 payoff meant I'd collect over $40! I went upstairs to sit with Kim for our last live race to watch and SIlktale, another Pletcher runner ran to her 8/1 odds, ninth. As I walked in to watch my last two races before we left I noticed that I'd missed a race from the Fair Grounds where I'd liked Whiskey Bravo in a nw2x turf sprint. As I walked inside I found the Fair Grounds monitor and the race was well over, and on the screen was the official order of finish. Who was on top? YES, WHISKEY BRAVO! They then showed the photo, it had been very close, but as the 7/5 favorite he'd paid $4.80 and I had another winning ticket, this one worth almost $25!
Tampa Bay Derby Preview Day
Highlight Video: Part 1
The last two races I would be watching live were both graded stakes. The first was the feature from Laurel, the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie. When I looked over the field I immediately was drawn to Lady Sebelia. She is a multiple stakes winner and loves the Maryland circuit. In fact in eight of her last ten starts she was the odds-on favorite. But......there was a red flag waving in my handicapping mind. First, she had been 3/5 on the undercard on Black-Eyed Susans Day when I was at Pimlico and was cruising uncontested on the lead when caught in deep stretch; so I had some suspicions to start with, and then I double-checked....the Fritchie was at SEVEN furlongs. Oh, she's going to be a heavy favorite and I think she gets run down. Now, who to find that can be "the one." Then I saw her.....Dancing House. This filly had made her second career start in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga at today's distance and was a good third. She'd had some problems and been laid off a few times by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. But the Godolphin Stable color-bearer had come back last fall to win off the shelf at Keeneland and her in her most recent she was second best behind multiple graded stakes winner, and ultra-quick LaVerdad. I thought that would be a perfect set-up for today. As they left the gate Lady Sebelia was tracking the leaders and those were the second choice at 9/5 and Dancing House on that one's outside. She seemed well in hand and made her move spinning into the stretch. She got her head in front but immediately was collared by Lady Sebelia. They dueled and then the favorite was in front at the 16th pole. But I could tell that Dancing House was still trying hard.....the seven furlong distance, maybe......sure enough as they continued into the final 16th Dancing House edged back in front, then drew off as Lady Sebelia weakened, just as I'd thought.
Not only had I NOT bet the favorite, but Dancing House had been a strong 4/1 at post time! The $10 payoff meant my ticket was worth $50! That was my eighth win on the day - I'm having a good day and now it's time for my BET of the Day! And like so many of my winners, she has a background story as well. It was Breeders' Cup Saturday and Keith had been struggling to cash tickets all weekend. It was ten minutes out from the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile and he said he wanted to bet a trifecta, who would I throw out with confidence? I immediately said to toss #7 - he looked in the program and said, "that's Tepin, one of the favorites - I want to know not who you think won't win, but who won't hit the board." I looked at him and said, "Tepin WON'T hit the board, I've seen her run, she's not nearly as good as they think she is....and she is facing the boys here." I gave him four other numbers to toss with her. He made the bet. Tepin WON and three of my four numbers ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. WOW. Last January Tepin won the Eclipse Award as best Filly / Mare Turf horse. Shows what I know. Keith has vowed to never let me forget this :) Well, today Tepin was making her 2016 debut in Tampa's Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes. She just laid over the field. Her last six speed figures (110, 109, 103, 103. 103, and 106) were better than any lifetime best by today's rivals. In fact of the combined 85 starts ONE other filly had run a 101. MUCH the best. I really wanted to bet the full $100 on her, but I just had this nagging doubt because I'd never been a fan. Finally I asked myself, are you as confident in her winning as you were with Songbird last weekend - who DID draw a $100 wager. My answer was no. So I settled on a $50 ticket. She broke smoothly, was well in hand pressing the leader into and through the turn. As they turned for home there were five of them within a length of her, all with a full head of steam - uh oh. Jockey Julian Leparoux just flicked his wrists and the response was immediate. In less than one hundred yards she was five clear and long gone while motored down. ULTRA-impressive!
I thought considering her resume and speed figures that 1/5 was more than fair, even an "inflated" $2.60 (instead of $2.40) payoff was more than generous. I would cash for $65 on my ninth winner of the day. We headed for home and I had three winning tickets in my pocket and several more for races yet to be run. After the hockey game, and the Panthers played poorly and lost 0-5, I watched the replays. 9th and 10th in two of the first three, third at 4/5 at the Fair Grounds. In the Grade 2 Arcadia at Santa Anita speedster Obviously looked to be the lone speed and long gone under new rider Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Clear by two and in hand in mid-stretch he as asked to finish but was caught in the final jump.....man! Ninth in the final stakes at Tampa, 5th in the eleventh at Gulfstream and then 9th in the finale at locally. At Santa Anita I cashed in the first of the three bets there. In the fifth it was a Maiden Special and it was Brad Free's BEST of the Day. Always Believe had jumped at the start and spotted the field four lengths. Then rushed up through :21 and :45 splits, got clear by two and was caught on the wire. A trouble-free trip would get him the money under new rider, Victor Espinoza. He wisely sat off a wall of four horses beating each other through the opening half. He swung four wide out of the turn and ran home first to the wire!
A double investment would get me back another $20 - add another winning ticket to my collection! In the 7th it was a non-conditioned Optional Allowance going seven furlongs. But the story here was the projected favorite, Calculator. He'd debuted at Del Mar a year ago and was fourth behind three future graded stakes winners, one of which was the fourth place finisher that day, American Pharoah. In his second start Calculator is beaten by Om, who is now a multiple graded stakes winner. In his third start - as a maiden - he goes in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and runs second! To, American Pharoah! In his third start he goes two turns in the Grade 1 Frontrunner and is second. To, American Pharoah - remember, he's still a maiden! In his next start he goes in the Grade 3 Sham - AS A MAIDEN! He's sent off as the 3/5 favorite (and my top choice) and is tons the best - on to the Derby trail! But then he gets injured and has now not run for well over a year. Still, I thought, way too much class for these and the connections want to win from what I could tell. He broke slowly, but cruised up to engage the leaders into the turn and then took off quickly opening up two into the lane. But one of the early leaders would not go away. He had to dig and fight courageously, but he was clear almost a length on the wire! A feel good story for sure, and my ELEVENTH win on the day!
Finally in the last race on the Santa Anita card we were going nine furlongs on the turf. Lady Valeur had been second in her European debut then had every excuse in her most recent. She'd shipped across the pond, off a layoff, ran down the unique hillside course here at Santa Anita and was steadied at the start. STILL she was a best-of-the-rest second. Hall of Famer Gary Stevens stayed on today as she stretched out. Lady Valeur pressed the leader while well in hand into the turn. The second choice made a move and Stevens glanced at him with that, "What do you think you're doing?" look; shook the reins and Lady Valeur took off in what was visually a WOW performance as she crushed them.
My TWELFTH WIN on the day and now I'll have six tickets to cash for well over $200! What a GREAT day.
Not only had I NOT bet the favorite, but Dancing House had been a strong 4/1 at post time! The $10 payoff meant my ticket was worth $50! That was my eighth win on the day - I'm having a good day and now it's time for my BET of the Day! And like so many of my winners, she has a background story as well. It was Breeders' Cup Saturday and Keith had been struggling to cash tickets all weekend. It was ten minutes out from the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile and he said he wanted to bet a trifecta, who would I throw out with confidence? I immediately said to toss #7 - he looked in the program and said, "that's Tepin, one of the favorites - I want to know not who you think won't win, but who won't hit the board." I looked at him and said, "Tepin WON'T hit the board, I've seen her run, she's not nearly as good as they think she is....and she is facing the boys here." I gave him four other numbers to toss with her. He made the bet. Tepin WON and three of my four numbers ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. WOW. Last January Tepin won the Eclipse Award as best Filly / Mare Turf horse. Shows what I know. Keith has vowed to never let me forget this :) Well, today Tepin was making her 2016 debut in Tampa's Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes. She just laid over the field. Her last six speed figures (110, 109, 103, 103. 103, and 106) were better than any lifetime best by today's rivals. In fact of the combined 85 starts ONE other filly had run a 101. MUCH the best. I really wanted to bet the full $100 on her, but I just had this nagging doubt because I'd never been a fan. Finally I asked myself, are you as confident in her winning as you were with Songbird last weekend - who DID draw a $100 wager. My answer was no. So I settled on a $50 ticket. She broke smoothly, was well in hand pressing the leader into and through the turn. As they turned for home there were five of them within a length of her, all with a full head of steam - uh oh. Jockey Julian Leparoux just flicked his wrists and the response was immediate. In less than one hundred yards she was five clear and long gone while motored down. ULTRA-impressive!
I thought considering her resume and speed figures that 1/5 was more than fair, even an "inflated" $2.60 (instead of $2.40) payoff was more than generous. I would cash for $65 on my ninth winner of the day. We headed for home and I had three winning tickets in my pocket and several more for races yet to be run. After the hockey game, and the Panthers played poorly and lost 0-5, I watched the replays. 9th and 10th in two of the first three, third at 4/5 at the Fair Grounds. In the Grade 2 Arcadia at Santa Anita speedster Obviously looked to be the lone speed and long gone under new rider Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Clear by two and in hand in mid-stretch he as asked to finish but was caught in the final jump.....man! Ninth in the final stakes at Tampa, 5th in the eleventh at Gulfstream and then 9th in the finale at locally. At Santa Anita I cashed in the first of the three bets there. In the fifth it was a Maiden Special and it was Brad Free's BEST of the Day. Always Believe had jumped at the start and spotted the field four lengths. Then rushed up through :21 and :45 splits, got clear by two and was caught on the wire. A trouble-free trip would get him the money under new rider, Victor Espinoza. He wisely sat off a wall of four horses beating each other through the opening half. He swung four wide out of the turn and ran home first to the wire!
A double investment would get me back another $20 - add another winning ticket to my collection! In the 7th it was a non-conditioned Optional Allowance going seven furlongs. But the story here was the projected favorite, Calculator. He'd debuted at Del Mar a year ago and was fourth behind three future graded stakes winners, one of which was the fourth place finisher that day, American Pharoah. In his second start Calculator is beaten by Om, who is now a multiple graded stakes winner. In his third start - as a maiden - he goes in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and runs second! To, American Pharoah! In his third start he goes two turns in the Grade 1 Frontrunner and is second. To, American Pharoah - remember, he's still a maiden! In his next start he goes in the Grade 3 Sham - AS A MAIDEN! He's sent off as the 3/5 favorite (and my top choice) and is tons the best - on to the Derby trail! But then he gets injured and has now not run for well over a year. Still, I thought, way too much class for these and the connections want to win from what I could tell. He broke slowly, but cruised up to engage the leaders into the turn and then took off quickly opening up two into the lane. But one of the early leaders would not go away. He had to dig and fight courageously, but he was clear almost a length on the wire! A feel good story for sure, and my ELEVENTH win on the day!
Finally in the last race on the Santa Anita card we were going nine furlongs on the turf. Lady Valeur had been second in her European debut then had every excuse in her most recent. She'd shipped across the pond, off a layoff, ran down the unique hillside course here at Santa Anita and was steadied at the start. STILL she was a best-of-the-rest second. Hall of Famer Gary Stevens stayed on today as she stretched out. Lady Valeur pressed the leader while well in hand into the turn. The second choice made a move and Stevens glanced at him with that, "What do you think you're doing?" look; shook the reins and Lady Valeur took off in what was visually a WOW performance as she crushed them.
My TWELFTH WIN on the day and now I'll have six tickets to cash for well over $200! What a GREAT day.
Tampa Bay Derby Preview Day
Highlight Video: Part 2
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