Holy Bull Weekend
Today was the first REALLY big day of championship racing because not only were there five big stakes on the card, but today marked the first major prep for both the Florida Derby and the Gulfstream Park Oaks with a pair of Grade 2 races - the Holy Bull and Forward Gal. Kim was on the west coast of Florida visiting her family and my buddy Jim's wife Stephanie was out of town so we made it a "boy's day at the races." After going through the Gulfstream card I had a play in every one of the dozen races! I also handicapped races from five other tracks and had selected some spot plays from around the country. After the soaking rains of the week today was a SPECTACULAR day for racing, just a post card to broadcast around the country as to why you should make Gulfstream your winter destination for championship racing. Jim arrived as the horses went on the track for the opener and in this allowance test on the grass I liked Al Khazaaliva from the Todd Pletcher barn. I really thought he'd run big today, but he had been inconsistent to date, so I only had the minimum on him. He rallied late to be third as the 8/5 favorite. My next pick wasn't until the second at Gulfstream and here I really, REALLY liked Todd Pletcher's first time starter, the $1.1 million sales grad Leslie's Harmony. So did everyone else as she left the gate as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. It was obvious before the opening quarter was over that the rider was having to work to get her interested in running and frankly she was lucky to dead-heat for third. As I told Jim afterwards, Pletcher always has his horses ready for their debut, but she looked like she needed a race. I expect a much better effort next out. I also told Jim that on Sunshine Millions Day I had started so slow, and in the second had lost a big play - like Leslie's Harmony - but rallied to rattle off a string of wins late to get to 30% so just stick with the program! The third was the first featured race, the Grade 2 Forward Gal for 3yo fillies. As I wrote, over the last several years Pletcher has owned this race and his star filly has gone on to sweep the three-year-old filly races, including the Oaks on Derby Day. But, today it looked like his filly, Island Saint would have to play second fiddle to the invader from the John Servis barn, Cathryn Sofia. This filly had debuted at Parx and had blitzed her rivals with a wire-to-wire win by more than a dozen lengths earning a HUGE 92 Beyer figure. She shipped to Maryland for her second start and wired a STAKES field by, get this - more than SIXTEEN lengths while earning an even bigger 94 figure. Today the only question was could she outsprint the other front runners to the lead. It seemed obvious that the answer was yes and after she floated up to a very generous 2/5 minutes before post time she took serious late money to be 1/9 as they left the gate. Well, I should say when the FIELD left the gate because Cathryn Sofia hesitated and was quickly fourth behind a wall of horses, led by.....you guessed it, the Pletcher filly. Not good - well, I guess we'll find out how good she is and if she can rate as well as take dirt in her face. As they approached the turn the rider looked to be having to ride Cathryn Sofia to keep her interested in running - which is often the way it is when front runners don't make the lead. REALLY not good. But as they spun out of the turn Joel Rosario guided her three wide off the fence and OH MY....she took off without any urging and just ran away by nearly half a dozen lengths. WOW this filly is very special.
My triple investment yielded just a $1.50 profit, but the race was well worth the price of admission! Ok, here we go I thought as I walked down to watch the first two simulcast races. The third from Aqueduct was an entry level allowance sprint and I had the favorite, Fortuitous Path. As they hit the far turn he was dead last.....sigh. But he began to pick off horses and blew by the field through the lane to WIN! Minutes later we were at Tampa for a starter sprint and my choice Battle Axe was the 9/5 favorite - sixth early and never ran a step. Next up was the Grade 2 Swale, the colt companion race to the Forward Gal. In this seven furlong sprint I did NOT like the likely favorite Awesome Banner who had wired the Hutcheson earlier in the meet. The additional furlong and the presence of other speed set it up for a stalker like Noholdingback Bear who was 5/1 at post time. But when the field broke from the gate NO ONE went with Awesome Banner, so the rider of my pick took up the chase. I was hoping that maybe the extra distance would be our ace in the hole, but pressing the pace was not 'Bear's best running style and he faded to 4th while Awesome Banner wired the field as the chalk. In the Grade 3 Withers in New York I told Jim I really liked Flexibility who figured to be the favorite. Why? He'd won a stakes, the Jerome, and more importantly he'd run second in back-to-back races to today's Holy Bull favorite Mohaymen. I told Jim that if Flexibility ran big, as I expected, I might have to up my already considerable investment I had planned on Mohaymen. Instead Flexibility was a distant and non-threatening 4th as the 1/2 favorite. Hmmm, what does this say about Mohaymen? Will he be vulnerable today? Less than five minutes later they were off in a maiden claiming sprint at Laurel. It was a very cheap ($8K) event and lightly raced runners. And my choice Mr. Do was an obvious "pop and stop" type who gunned to the front and could not hold on. BUT, last time out he was four clear at the stretch call and while he was caught he kept second, all after being off for nine months. I thought today he could hang on. Right to the front and coasting on the lead. Even when they turned for home and he was daylight lengths clear I was not confident. And at the 1/8th pole I was still nervous because here came the closers. I kept repeating over and over out loud, "WHERE'S THE WIRE!" and as they hit the wire the deep closer was right there - PHOTO FINISH! Oh so close......in the live view I thought we were second. In the first slo-mo replay I thought maybe we won - had to like that the camera followed Mr. Do post race. The third slo motion, and it was EXTRA slow, you could tell the judges were really unsure, it was just too hard to tell. It all depended on where the actual wire was and the angle of the camera. Then the results - WE WON! And at a big 5/1 price, paying $13.20 for the win bet. I turned to Jim, because I knew he'd bet the Flexibility race and often he doesn't bet many of my non-Gulfstream races. I said, "Please tell me that you didn't just bet the NY race and you had this one at Laurel." He smiled and said he did :) The fifth at Gulfstream saw Conquest Daddyo go off as the 8/5 favorite in the Kitten's Joy Stakes on the turf. Broke slowly and showed little running 7th. But as I turned the opening page of selections I'd clicked on three of the first nine - my typical 30% plus! Then much like Sunshine Millions Day, it was a long stretch. At the Fair Grounds I clear on the lead at 4/5, caught - 2nd. At Gulfstream 6th at 8/1. At Aqueduct Dave Liftin's BEST was a belated third at 7/5, never a threat. At Laurel third as the 6/5 favorite. In the opener at Santa Anita down the hillside turf course I'd picked Out of the Ordinary, then upped the bet when I read it was Brad Free's BEST. Stalked to pace to the stretch, stuck his nose in front and hung - 4th at even money. In the 7th at Gulfstream, a 3yo Maiden Special on the turf I doubled the bet on American Patriot from the Todd Pletcher barn. He was blocked through the turn and all the way to the furlong pole before he found room; then burst through with a gigantic acceleration, but could not catch the winner, third. He IS A NEXT OUT WINNER. I told Jim the only good news here is I WILL make big money on him in his next start. Zimmerman was 2nd as the even money choice at Oaklawn and Gimmeadrink was a rallying third at 5/2 at Tampa. Then at Gulfstream in the 8th on the turf I did not like the favorite. I went with Western Reserve but had remarked it was interesting that Todd Pletcher's multiple state-bred stakes winner, Notacatbutallama was entered in this open nw1x allowance, running for the $62,500K tag. My pick was a nowhere-to-be-found 6th at 3/1 while Pletcher's runner won and paid an amazing $18.20 - oh I wish I'd doubled the bet there. Finally, the skid of ten losing picks came mercifully to an end at the Fair Grounds where Mr. Lexis rallied and drew off in a claiming event on the turf. Paid $6.40 and I only had the minimum, but finally, a winning ticket. The next race was one of two that would make or break the day. I'd made Todd Pletcher's Mo Power my BET of the Day in his debut. He sprinted 6 1/2 furlongs and was near the back through the turn but was FLYING to just miss. Today with one under his belt and the stretch to a one-turn mile I thought he looked, much, MUCH the best and had listed him as a $50 win bet! He stalked the leader through the turn, made his move, and then....did not pull away. Uh oh! But as they came through the stretch he wore that one down and was a clear winner - just not as easily as I'd thought.
But the $50 win ticket was a good one. And at a 4/5 price I cashed for $90 - ok now we're back in the game! At Laurel my longshot was 15/1 and third into the stretch, stopped to be 6th - it was a brief thrill :) At Oaklawn Moon King was the 7/5 favorite and outrun from the start - fifth. In the Grade 3 Toboggan at Aqueduct I was right in not going with the front-running favorite. But my choice couldn't finish and was a fading 8th. Out west at Santa Anita it was Sunshine Millions/Cal Cup Day. The first of the stakes was the Cal Cup Oaks for 3yo fillies going a mile on the turf. I thought it was really odd that the field had a combined ONE turf win! But if they ran to form Pacific Heat looked much the best. In her first two, against state-breds, she'd won. First her maiden special debut and then a stakes race. Last time out she tried open Grade 1 runners and was overmatched. She was well bred for the turf and she made it look easy. Pressed the leader to the turn and took off without ever being asked to win by double digit lengths.
So I closed the second page with three wins in the last six picks - better. The Grade 3 Sweetest Chant for 3yos on the turf looked wide open to me. But, while several COULD win on their best day, it looked to me that if Sapphire Kitten just ran her normal figure she WOULD win. She was 2/1 and like so many earlier horses was pinned on the rail into the stretch with nowhere to go. Finally got free, but too late despite the sudden burst to the wire - 4th. Picked up my second win on Cal Cup Day when Smokey Image was ULTRA IMPRESSIVE in the Cal Cup Derby. This race had launched the Kentucky Derby bid in 2014 for future Horse of the Year California Chrome. Smokey Image, on paper was easily the best. He was a perfect 5-for-5 and his last FOUR Beyer figures were better than any lifetime number earned by his rivals. The question was, could he go two turns. As they came out of the gate it looked like jockey Victor Espinoza - who ironically rode California Chrome to a Derby win (as well as American Pharoah) did not want the lead. But neither did anyone else, so he let him go on with it. Instead of slowing the pace down they went a legitimate :23 and change and then :47 and change to the far turn. OK, now we find out. The stalkers and closers were gearing up but there was no catching this guy. He literally "smoked" them :) Very big winner.
I had gone "prime time" and so I'd cash for nearly $30. Finally, it was time for the big race. How good is undefeated Mohaymen? He'd been spectacular in his first three wins and his most recent workout was a sizzling :59.2 bullet work. With little speed in the race he looked to take them gate to wire - though he'd won pressing and closing as well. He was a prohibitive 1/5 at post time, but I thought that was stealing. The gates opened right in front of us, but he seemed to hesitate and then was squeezed back to third. Hmmmm, not a good start. But he seemed comfortable tracking the top ones down the backstretch. Shortly before hitting the far turn it looked like Mohaymen told the rider, I'm not waiting any longer and he pushed up between the two leaders. On the outside was a Grade 1 winner from New York who was likely the biggest threat. The two of them hit top speed into the turn and were quickly a half dozen lengths clear of the field. But as they moved through the turn you could tell that the other jockey was pushing and Junior Alvarado on Mohaymen had yet to move. In fact as they came into the stretch he looked back to see if there was anyone coming. He let out a notch and WOW it was a spectacular run to the wire. EVERY BIT AS GOOD AS ADVERTISED. Wow impressive.
The fractions weren't fast and the Beyer won't be big, but visually it was one of those "WOW" moments. In my analysis I'd written he and Mo Power were co-BET of the Day plays for me with a planned $50 investment each. But after the win in the Cal Cup Derby and seeing Mohaymen in the paddock I had not one but two $50 win tickets! WHOOO HOOOO. Then came the best story of the day. Before the racing began I was telling Jim that on Sunshine Millions Day I'd had several experiences when betting on "this side" of the facility with the tellers not giving me accurate tickets and that I took responsibility because I didn't check them; so check your tickets I said - today that is a focus for me every time I bet. I also had promised myself to bet early on every race on my sheet. The way my picks went it looked like an easy thing to do after a Gulfstream race I'd have plenty of time to go up and bet the next local race and all the races from around the country in between with plenty of time to spare. So after the Mohaymen big win I went into the simulcast area and watched the seventh from the Fair Grounds where my pick was Stradivarius, see my analysis:
He was, like so many others, blocked on the rail through the turn, got through late, dueled and second by a narrow margin. The next race was live, so I headed outside to go up the stairs to our seats where Jim was seated. I checked the ticket, yep, no good - $10 to WIN on the #1 at the Fair Grounds. Crumpled it up and had turned my hand ready to flip it down when something clicked. Hey, something isn't right here. Do you see it? I checked the ticket again. Right - the Fair Grounds; right, $10 to WIN on #1. But wait a tic.....this says the 6th RACE.....maybe it was the sixth - checked my sheet, no, I had listed it as the 7th. I KNOW I just saw Stradivarius lose. Maybe my post times were off because I remember specifically saying to the teller, "the Fair Grounds, Race 7, $10 to win on #1." Checked the post times, no, I HAD just watched the 7th. Well it's a good thing Stradivarius did NOT win because my ticket would have been no good! So I opened my phone to check the results from the sixth at the Fair Grounds.......
Oh my, a "free" $25! WHOOO HOOOO! Our pick in the finale made a threatening move on the turn at 5/1 but couldn't sustain it, sixth. Jim and I shook hands and agreed it had been a good day. I invited he and his wife to join me at the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 as I have two extra tickets and he said he'd check with her. I had a few late bets and then some plays from late night racing at Sam Houston Park near Jeff & Antoinette outside of Houston. When I opened up the replays I the first race I watched was the King Cotton Stakes from Oaklawn where I'd tripled the bet on Ivan Fallunovalot. He'd drilled a best-of-82 bullet and had won this race last year. Jockey Calvin Borel asked him for his best spinning into the stretch and he ran away from the field to win!
I'll cash that ticket for $30 when I go back to Gulfstream! I hit on my first play at Sam Houston when Horsepower won a maiden sprint where I'd doubled the bet - that will get me another $21. But the rest of the picks were disappointments. In the two big graded stakes at Sam Houston I really thought I'd win - closing at 2/1 in the Gr 3 Connolly, only to be 2nd and leading into the stretch in the Gr 3 Ladies' Classic, only to be caught late to be third. But, on the day I had survived the drought in the middle of the day to finish with 12 wins from 38 plays, a 32% winning day!
January 30 Highlights
It seems like this happens a lot.....a big day on Saturday and then Sunday is a big disappointment that nearly wipes out all the hard work of the Saturday results. For the day Sunday I was shut out, going 0-for-7 to close the week and the month. Sigh.....turn the page and let's move on to February after a strong month.
Week 8 Highlights
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