We Were At The Fair Grounds Last Year For This Big Day
What A Great Day Of Handicapping
A great day in Houston with the family was topped off with a sensational day of handicapping results I had handicapped the B-I-G card at the Fair Grounds and tried to be conservative and only select runners I thought had an EXCELLENT chance to win. When I was done there were eight races on my selection sheet from New Orleans to go with the five runners locally on my sheet. And let me just say for the record, considering it's the "Championship Meet" and it's a Saturday afternoon, this was one of the weakest cards of the meet. But to be fair next Saturday is a HUGE day with several graded stakes and listed stakes on the menu. I passed the opening two races on the Gulfstream card before doubling the bet on Deep Sea in the third. He'd been my BET of the Day early in the meet and had run well first time against winners last time going a one-turn mile. He had been right there at the top of the lane and failed to finish strongly, so I thought today's seven furlongs was a perfect fit. He sat behind a trio of runners through the turn, split horses and drew clear while drifting towards the center of the track. Considering how good I think he may be, the $3.60 payoff was more than fair.
Right back in the fourth I liked Sharp Azteca. He will be a name I remember from the meet for multiple reasons. On Opening Day he was best of the rest second behind Todd Pletcher's Zulu, who was my "best of the day" and then he came back as everyone else's best on Sunshine Millions Day, but I went with another Pletcher debut runner (Boalt Hall) who won at a huge 9/1 price generating a payoff of over $100. But today Sharp Azteca looked like he was clearly the best of this group. He stalked the leaders into the turn and was much, MUCH the best at short odds - only the minimum bet so this was just a "pad the statistics" kind of victory.
Next up was my first selection from the Fair Grounds. Steve Asmussen was sending out Sonoma Crush for her debut run. She had a sharp bullet work almost two weeks ago and looked best of these. The crowd bet her down to even money and she proved them right. Broke sharply, sat just off the second choice through the turn and then drew off through the long New Orleans stretch. In the 4th at the Fair Grounds I got a really good price of 9/2 on Asmussen's Modify. The colt stalked the leader into the lane and looked ready to run by the short-priced favorite at the furlong pole, but couldn't get by, but was daylight clear of the field. That would have been a NICE win. The fifth at the Fair Grounds was the Grade 3 Mineshaft. This was a good example of "race track logic." I thought that International Star, who'd won the Louisiana Derby last spring, was a race away last time out. But he was much the best and I missed it as he remained unbeaten over the track. So today, where I thought he'd run big (both last time and today) he went off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in a short field of five. As they left the gate Jeff and I were watching the race replays together and he pointed to the #1 horse who was 6/1 and said, "Dad, you know the saying......short field, big price!" Sure enough, that horse wired the field and International Star was a very disappointing fifth and last. The 7th at Gulfstream was a MSW on the turf and I backed Todd Pletcher's Ransack who was 5/2. Chased a loose on the lead front runner, second. Next on the selection sheet was a nw2x allowance test on the turf. Javier Castellano picked up the win for me when Hammers Terror kicked into gear in the final 16th of a mile after I thought we were done without a chance. A nice payoff of $6.60 led to a payout of over $30. The first of the stakes races was next, the DF Kenner stakes, a six furlong sprint. Everyoe liked Clearly Now, who was the class of the field, but I thought Cinco Charlie - who'd won a stakes race here last year in his lone start in New Orleans - was the LONE SPEED on the rail. Broke sharply and went right to the front - in hand all the way to the wire! WHOOOO HOOOO!
The only disappointment in the race was that he was bet down be the 9/5 second choice. But still, I'd tripled the bet so I was cashing out for nearly $45. NICE! Back-to-back selections scratched for me - a Kiaran McLaughlin first-time starter at Gulfstream who I liked quite a bit, and then Pink Poppy in the Daisy Devine Stakes who'd I intended to go "prime time" on. Too bad, I really liked her chances. The tenth at Gulfstream was a claiming event on the turf. It would have been easy to look at the pace flow and think there was a lot of speed in here to set the table for an off-the-pace runner. But instead I thought Lasso, who was breaking from post nine, would gun to the front and wire the field. He had won four in a row as a six-year-old last winter here, all on the front end, and today was dropping in class for the second leading trainer, Jorge Navarro. When he has sent out first-off-the-claim runners and/or class droppers, they've run lights out. With the best of 39 bullet, and going third off the shelf I thought he was primed for a huge effort. Sure enough, right to the front.......see ya!
Lasso paid a generous $6.80 and I was cashing for nearly $35! WOW, what a day I'm having! The co-featured, Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra for 3yo fillies looking to head on to the Fair Grounds Oaks was up next. I had loved Stageplay in the Silverbulletday last out and she'd won. But the way she finished made me suspect she might not be as good as projected. I wanted to go against her, but none of the other figured. She made a powerful move out of the turn.......then hung. Meanwhile a 74/1 longshot came flying up the rail to win. WOW. My "BET of the DAY" developed in much the same way. On the same day that Stageplay had won, Chocolate Ride had been my "BET of the Day" on the turf. He'd held on gamely after setting the pace. So at first I wanted to find someone else, but after looking over the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap it was clear to me that (a) he was indeed the lone speed; (b) today, second off the layoff he'd probably improve, and (c) today's nine furlongs was much more in his wheelhouse than the 8 1/2 furlong distance last time out. Chocolate Ride had shown the ability to press the pace so I wasn't worried about if he could or could not get the lead. When the gates opened he was allowed to easily clear off by daylight, and then he just took them on a merry chase. As the field began to gear up for a big stretch drive he had plenty left and accelerated home to win easily! I am having a V-E-R-Y good day.
I couldn't believe Chocolate Ride had gone off at 6/5 allowing me to cash for almost $70! Ironic because when I'd finished handicapping and especially when I made my bets this morning I was wondering about how the day would turn out. I don't keep a big balance in my online account (unless on a winning streak) so I typically don't bet online like I would live at the track. But I did today. I wondered at the time if I'd have to make a deposit tomorrow to play the Sunday Gulfstream card. Well, it's obvious now that the answer is a BIG NO after the way these races are turning out. What a great day! The final race of the day on my sheet was the Grade 3 Risen Star, the feature race for three-year-olds looking to move on to the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby. I did NOT like the favorite, Aeroforce who had won all but one race because while it was true he'd won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club over several of these to close out his 2yo campaign, his previous four races were on the turf AND the Churchill win was over a sloppy track - I noted in my analysis that often the unique Louisville track plays very kindly to turf runners. I also didn't think that the others that had run in either the Lecomte last time or in other races were standouts. So, in short, I thought it was a race ripe for an upset. I went with Gun Runner who'd been defeated by two of these in that Gr 2 at Churchill. But today he looked to not only get a fast track, but I thought today just might be his day. Liked that he was running in the Winchell colors, made famous by champion Untapable who was also trained by Steve Asmussen. The race went EXACTLY as I had seen it. Aeroforce didn't run at all - 10th of eleven; and Gun Runner sat just off the speed. When they turned for home he opened up and ran by the leader then held off the closers to WIN! My FIFTH win at the Fair Grounds. And check out the price......
After cashing for nearly $70 on Chocolate Ride I was now scoring for over $60 in the feature race. I'd be lying if it wasn't as much about being right with the upset pick as the money! I opened up the Twinspires account to see my betting results and while I knew it had been a good day, I didn't think it was THIS good. What a day!
Jeff and his Grandma enjoying oysters at the New Orleans-style restaurant (ironic, eh?)
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