I had picks in four of the first five races today so I headed out to Gulfstream to enjoy the cool, crisp weather and see my picks run live. The first story of interest relates to my gal-pals from the CBS 4 Morning News Team. Recently Facebook has launched a new tool called "Broadcast Live" that enables you to post your status through a live video broadcast - not simply posting a video - rather than a photo or statement. I had heard about it, but the three girls on the CBS 4 team - Lissette Gonzalez (weather), Lauren Pastrana (anchor), and Vanessa Borge (traffic) have all taken to doing this. And while it's not truly the most unique thing I've ever seen, it is pretty cool that they are LIVE on Facebook and so I thought perhaps this could be a tool I might use on my Facebook account; maybe when I am at the races, but perhaps this could be something I could use on my trips. So today I decided to do a "LIVE Broadcast" at Gulfstream. I did, and it went well (see video recap below). So much so that I am certain I'll use it when we are in France in about a month and a half. But let's be honest, the reason for going to Gulfstream today was to watch the races, and in particular I had two, back-to-back races I was MOST interested in. That was the fourth and the fifth where my top picks were BOTH Todd Pletcher runners and I felt pretty sure I would be the winner. Prior to that I had picks in the first and third, so I went out for the opener, figuring I'd just enjoy being there through the period between the first and third. But right after I arrived and did my live broadcast I hear that my pick in the third is scratched - so now I have an hour between picks. Oh well, just enjoy the day I told myself. So, the opener was a five furlong turf sprint and the favorite was certain to be a class dropper that has not been out since August AND had never been on the turf. I just couldn't back that kind of runner. It was easy to find an alternative and Alabama Ashley looked like a very viable alternative. Not only had she run more recently, but she was a front-runner, and looked to be the LONE front-runner with an inside draw. And on top of that, even though this was a maiden race she was dropping out of an open allowance race where she faced winners (where she'd been on the lead for the first half mile). Sure enough, right to the front and loose on the lead into the stretch at a nice 3/1 price! But at the 16th pole the favorite blew right on by at even money. Good bet, but no cash. In the second I liked the winner, and listed her on top, but couldn't take a runner in a cheap $6K spot that had won last time out AND was moving into an 0-for-17 barn. She did win at 2/1. I spent some time in the gift shop looking for a hooded sweatshirt, and found some but none in my size. Finally it was time for the fourth. This was a nine-furlong event for three-year-olds. I would have supported Battery, from the Pletcher barn for that reason alone. But there were several strong angles that added to my enthusiasm to bet him. First, after winning with authority in his debut he ran second here off the layoff. His return today in less than 60 days made him a Gulfstream 40% Club play. Secondly, top rider Javier Castellano was up. But here was the kicker, the winner, a horse by the name of Cherry Wine has been mentioned as a Kentucky Derby runner - not just Florida Derby, but THE Kentucky Derby. I looked him up and immediately found articles to that affect. Right after the third, before the opening odds came up on Battery I looked online and there was a blog where one handicapper actually listed Cherry Wine as his top Kentucky Derby pick! That all said, it was only a field of five and he just looked TONS the best. The board opened and he was 1/5 - that sealed it, I decided to go "all in" on the wager. FIFTY to win I told the teller. Battery held at 1/5 until about five minutes to post, then floated up to 2/5 - oh my, I thought, that's stealing here. Then incredibly by post time he'd gone all the way up to 1/2 odds. Unbelievable I thought. He broke sharply, but two inside of him insisted on the lead, so Castellano let him relax on the outside of them. As I told Kim later you'd have to be an experienced race watcher to see what I saw. The two running in front were not being driven, but it was obvious that they were running hard. By contrast Battery was well, WELL within himself and was ready to roll. On the turn, he glided up to the front and ran home as MUCH the best. WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
The $3 payoff on a $2 play means I'll cash for $75 when I return to Gulfstream! Right back in the fifth with another Pletcher runner. This was the typical, prototype Pletcher winner - a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds and here's a first-time starter from the Pletcher shedrow. First Hand Report was a $300K Keeneland sales grad. The daughter of champion Blame had all the credentials AND had worked back-to-back bullet works for her debut today. I mean, wow, what else do you need? Just being a Pletcher debuting 3yo at Gulfstream in the winter would be enough - but add in the sales tag, the bloodlines, and the works.....you'd think she'd be odds-on. Now granted the field had several sophomores who probably will be very good, but at Gulfstream, it's all about the Pletcher runners. I was not surprised when she was the early 8/5 favorite in the betting. But the longer the wagering went on, the more her odds floated upwards. They broke from the gate and she was off just a beat slowly, but immediately jockey John Velazquez pushed her to the front. By the time they'd crossed the first pole she was in front by daylight and running comfortably. She held the lead through the turn, and as they turned for home the stalkers and closers were coming, but she was game and held her lead safely to the wire! TWO IN A ROW!
I knew she'd been 2/1 nearing post time but as the slow-motion replay was shown I could now see she had been 5/2. I could not believe she'd pay $7. Then the prices came up - an astounding $7.80! I'm going to cash for almost $40 on a Pletcher 3yo maiden who won her debut off of bullet works and top bloodlines. WOW.
I made my bets in the final three races and headed for home. What a great day regardless of what happens in those races - I am a 33% winner with selections and made a profit on the day. Later after dinner I checked out the replays of my late bets......in the 7th it was a MSW for sophomores without a Pletcher runner. But Chad Brown sent out Money Illusion with Castellano up. Brown is typically known for his turf runners but the DRF shows he wins with 27% of his dirt runners. The crowd saw what I did and made him the 4/5 favorite. Much like the races this weekend, I thought Castellano did not give his horse the best chance as he sat way in the back. Belated run but never a threat, 6th. In the eighth it was another GP 40% Club play with Bel Citron being sent out by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey with Castellano up. They'd teamed up to score for me with Bokeelia Island last week and this MSW on the turf looked very similar - and at a big 6/1 price. But again, Castellano had the horse way back making a belated move that didn't give her a chance to win. Sixth. The last play of the day was a turf sprint for a claiming tag. Like watching the Battery race I would not have won this race without all the experience I've got behind me because here was a race where there were at least five who were "need to lead" kind of runners. An obvious place to look for someone who comes from off the pace. But I've seen way too many of these races unfold where ONE of the front runners takes command as the speed-of-the-speed and wires the field. So I landed on Noble Prince who was breaking from post six. Not only did he look quickest early, but looking down his past performances he had not been in a claiming event - at least none showing in his past....AND he was exiting SIX STRAIGHT stakes tries. Sure enough, right to the front, loose on the lead. Clear to the furlong pole and then here they came.......he was holding on for dear life inside the final 200 yards and the closers were making up ground with every stride.....WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!! PHOTO FINISH!
Oh yeah baby, and at a nice 3/1 price. The $8.00 payoff means I'll be cashing for $40. So the three winning tickets will result in a total payout of over $150 when I am back at Gulfstream. TRULY a good day at the races!
The $3 payoff on a $2 play means I'll cash for $75 when I return to Gulfstream! Right back in the fifth with another Pletcher runner. This was the typical, prototype Pletcher winner - a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds and here's a first-time starter from the Pletcher shedrow. First Hand Report was a $300K Keeneland sales grad. The daughter of champion Blame had all the credentials AND had worked back-to-back bullet works for her debut today. I mean, wow, what else do you need? Just being a Pletcher debuting 3yo at Gulfstream in the winter would be enough - but add in the sales tag, the bloodlines, and the works.....you'd think she'd be odds-on. Now granted the field had several sophomores who probably will be very good, but at Gulfstream, it's all about the Pletcher runners. I was not surprised when she was the early 8/5 favorite in the betting. But the longer the wagering went on, the more her odds floated upwards. They broke from the gate and she was off just a beat slowly, but immediately jockey John Velazquez pushed her to the front. By the time they'd crossed the first pole she was in front by daylight and running comfortably. She held the lead through the turn, and as they turned for home the stalkers and closers were coming, but she was game and held her lead safely to the wire! TWO IN A ROW!
I knew she'd been 2/1 nearing post time but as the slow-motion replay was shown I could now see she had been 5/2. I could not believe she'd pay $7. Then the prices came up - an astounding $7.80! I'm going to cash for almost $40 on a Pletcher 3yo maiden who won her debut off of bullet works and top bloodlines. WOW.
I made my bets in the final three races and headed for home. What a great day regardless of what happens in those races - I am a 33% winner with selections and made a profit on the day. Later after dinner I checked out the replays of my late bets......in the 7th it was a MSW for sophomores without a Pletcher runner. But Chad Brown sent out Money Illusion with Castellano up. Brown is typically known for his turf runners but the DRF shows he wins with 27% of his dirt runners. The crowd saw what I did and made him the 4/5 favorite. Much like the races this weekend, I thought Castellano did not give his horse the best chance as he sat way in the back. Belated run but never a threat, 6th. In the eighth it was another GP 40% Club play with Bel Citron being sent out by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey with Castellano up. They'd teamed up to score for me with Bokeelia Island last week and this MSW on the turf looked very similar - and at a big 6/1 price. But again, Castellano had the horse way back making a belated move that didn't give her a chance to win. Sixth. The last play of the day was a turf sprint for a claiming tag. Like watching the Battery race I would not have won this race without all the experience I've got behind me because here was a race where there were at least five who were "need to lead" kind of runners. An obvious place to look for someone who comes from off the pace. But I've seen way too many of these races unfold where ONE of the front runners takes command as the speed-of-the-speed and wires the field. So I landed on Noble Prince who was breaking from post six. Not only did he look quickest early, but looking down his past performances he had not been in a claiming event - at least none showing in his past....AND he was exiting SIX STRAIGHT stakes tries. Sure enough, right to the front, loose on the lead. Clear to the furlong pole and then here they came.......he was holding on for dear life inside the final 200 yards and the closers were making up ground with every stride.....WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!! PHOTO FINISH!
Oh yeah baby, and at a nice 3/1 price. The $8.00 payoff means I'll be cashing for $40. So the three winning tickets will result in a total payout of over $150 when I am back at Gulfstream. TRULY a good day at the races!
Wednesday February 10 Highlights
My CBS4 Girls
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