An EPIC Battle Could Be Looming!
A special Monday, holiday card at Gulfstream today lured me out to make most of my selections at the races, but the highlight of the day came in Southern California where unbeaten 2-year-old champion Nyquist made his 2016 debut. Here's how the day played out......As I wrote in my analysis and said on video, kudos to the Gulfstream Racing Office for putting together a twelve race card where EVERY race was a Starter Stakes with a purse worth $60 to $75 thousand dollars. Originally I thought there weren't many good runners in the entry box, but that turned out to be untrue as I found eight runners that I wanted to play, including two "big time" bets that I went out to watch live. The weather report said 0% chance of rain but it rained the entire way out on the drive there and for the first forty minutes it drizzled before it finally let up. Thankfully, unlike the old Calder management, this did not impact the turf racing. The first race did not offer any kind of selection that I felt comfortable in wagering on, but the second was a solid play. Quiet Kitten had won the Claiming Crown Tiara, in a race much like this and then last time out had tried the Grade 3 Marshua's River. Back down with the kind of runners she'd beaten on Opening Day she looked solid. I doubled the bet on the 9/5 favorite (played online before I left) but she chased the lone speed all the way around the track - narrowed the gap on the wire, but still only second. In the third race I thought the speed would set it up for a closer. I was right about that, but my pick was WAY too far back and rallied only belatedly for fourth. The fourth race was the first I wagered on live, and it was a "PRIME TIME" play. Defer Heaven had rattled off three consecutive wins this winter over the Gulfstream track and he looked not only best on speed figures, but he was the inside speed from post two. That would have made him the pick, but he was the ONLY front runner in the field and I thought he'd easily be long gone. He broke just a touch slowly, but within the first one hundred yards he'd edged to the front. He had company to the first quarter pole, but then easily distanced himself, and as they spun out of the stretch he opened the margin up with each and every stride. He coasted under the wire by EIGHT widening lengths.
Very impressive, and the times were very quick: a half mile in :44 and change, 3/4 in 1:08 and change and a final time for seven furlongs in 1:21.3 - that's race horse time my friends! My prime time play was going to yield well over $40 on my first "live bet" of the day. The result of the fifth was one of those handicapping outcomes where I could be satisfied, but not rewarded. The obvious favorite on paper was Moonshine Promise. She had won the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper on Opening Day with a purse of over $100K. So when she came back for her next start in a $12K starter optional claiming event, she just laid over the field. She was the bet of the day and coasted home in hand. Then a month ago she resurfaced, but rather than stepping up in class she was right back in that $12K starter kind of spot. I thought that odd, but again she laid over the field and I drove out on that week day afternoon to watch my "BET of the Day" win. However as she coasted under the wire as I was standing on the rail it looked like the finish was very close, even though track announcer Larry Colmus led you to believe she was the easiest of winners. When I watched the replay it WAS very close. Hmmmm, not so impressive. So fast forward to today, she was going to be the short priced favorite, again, and you could make the case - like with Defer Heaven earlier on the card - that she was just too good for these. But I had seen that last race and was NOT impressed. Now looking at the racing form her Beyers had been on a steady decline. I thought this was a great race to make some money on a value play. Well the bad news is that my pick at 4/1 faded to fifth. The "good" news was how right I was about Moonshine Promise. At odds of 4/5 she was eased under the wire, in fact Javier Castellano got off and she did not even go another 20 yards past the line! The fifth was my "BET of the Day" locally. I'd seen and won with Ousby on two straight races and he'd been ultra impressive. I thought after his last runaway victory he'd show up in an allowance spot, but I reasoned this $60K starter stakes was a good next step for him. The crowd sent him off at 3/5 odds. I had been most impressed with his debut win when he rallied and drew off with a strong late punch over the inner turf to win by a pole. I was surprised in his second race when he wired the field. But the pace was so slow he really was running virtually the same kind of race. So today, with an honest pace I was certain he'd stalk and finish with a flourish. Instead he was sent to the front. He dueled to the far turn, but was way too good for that one and opened up by daylight. But then here came a closer and it was one head up and one head down to the wire. I really thought it could go either way. Live I thought I'd lost; on the replay I thought I'd won, especially when they stopped the slo-mo replay and my nose was down. But the official photo showed me on the short end, second. I made my final set of wagers and headed for home. Kim and I were going out for a hamburger and then had a Panthers game. When I got home I was able to watch my final four plays from Gulfstream and I missed on all of them, including a close second in a turf race on my last live bet.
Not such a good day at Gulfstream, but the race of the day was coming up after our dinner date. We got home about ten minutes before post time of the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita Park. What made this so special was that it marked the return to the races and 2016 three-year-old debut of undefeated, two-year-old champion and Breeders' Cup Juvenile hero Nyquist. That in and of itself would have made it the big race of the day for me. But what made it of even more interest was that the connections of the champ had publicly laid out their plans for a Kentucky Derby run and those plans were to run first today, at seven furlongs in the Grade 2 San Vicente and then ship to Gulfstream to run in the Grade 1 Florida Derby for a purse of $1 Million as a final Derby prep. It was widely agreed this was an unusual plan, but it was reported that trainer Doug O'Neil (who had managed I'll Have Another to a Derby AND Preakness win) liked the five week break from the Florida Derby to the Run for the Roses more than the four week break from the home track Santa Anita Derby. With the Kentucky Derby point system Nyquist didn't need any points to get in, he already had 30 and typically 20 were enough. So with no points on the line in the San Vicente it was believed that just a close finish at Gulfstream would seal his trip to Louisville. Then today I read that Nyquist had been purchased at the Ocala Fasig-Tipton sales and they were offering a $1 Million bonus to any horse that was purchased at their sales and then won the Florida Derby! I do NOT think O'Neil is shipping across the country just to "get a prep race" under his belt. And from reading his comments it sounded like today was a "we're live" day. Nyquist went off at a fair 2/5 price in a short field of five, but with the rail draw he was sent to the front. The opening quarter of :22 was not unreasonable, but the half in :44 was - in fact if you did the math, he actually ran the second quarter of the race in :21.4 which is a sensational OPENING quarter, and horses tend to slow down with each subsequent quarter - but Nyquist ran faster in the second quarter. He'll never hang on I thought as I watched. At the top of the lane his main rival, Exaggerator, a multiple graded stakes winner, came to him and the show was on! At least everyone thought so because after dueling for less than a hundred yards Nyquist ran away without ever being pushed for his best. OH MY.
It was the second time this winter, and only the fifth time in my race watching life that I'd had that "OH WOW" kind of reaction. The other time recently was when Mohaymen drew off in the Holy Bull. If that guy romps in the Fountain of Youth in two weeks then these two will stage a sensational and epic run in the Florida Derby on April 2! I had a $50 WIN ticket to make him my "co-BET of the Day" so it saved the day for me. For the week I won with 35% of my selections and scored a profit of nearly $50. Week Ten was good for me!
Nyquist WINS Grade 2 San Vicente
Gulfstream Week 10 Highlights
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