Three Great Decisions - Three BIG WINS
Thursday February 4
It is just so interesting to me that there is rarely a day that I go to the races - virtually or on track - that I don't have some story to tell. And today, in spite of only five selections, none of which drew a lot of attention from me initially, I got another one. In the opener Bear's Reflection looked to have a chance to steal a claiming event going seven furlongs, but when he broke slowly that went out the window. Recovered nicely to press the pace and forge to a short lead into the stretch only to weaken to third as the even money favorite. The second race winner was 3/5, but I had to pass the race when the top three favorites "boasted" these resumes: The favorite, beaten 31 lengths in his last and not been out since November; the second choice beaten 27 combined lengths in last two and going for an 0-for-31 barn; and the third choice debuted last time out to finish ninth, beaten 15 plus lengths. No thanks. When I handicapped the third race the conditions were for basement level older maiden claimers. As I went through the first eight they were IMMEDIATE NO plays. Just an awful field. But then I came to #9 Pathos. Now she's no Breeders' Cup champion but her last three numbers of 37, 46, and 48 would all win for fun over 68 of the 71 career Beyers of her rivals. And her second start number of 70 would win by a pole. She had run for $25K last time out and was second - she was a clear candidate to improve to her best effort and she ran away as way, WAY too good for these.
It is just so interesting to me that there is rarely a day that I go to the races - virtually or on track - that I don't have some story to tell. And today, in spite of only five selections, none of which drew a lot of attention from me initially, I got another one. In the opener Bear's Reflection looked to have a chance to steal a claiming event going seven furlongs, but when he broke slowly that went out the window. Recovered nicely to press the pace and forge to a short lead into the stretch only to weaken to third as the even money favorite. The second race winner was 3/5, but I had to pass the race when the top three favorites "boasted" these resumes: The favorite, beaten 31 lengths in his last and not been out since November; the second choice beaten 27 combined lengths in last two and going for an 0-for-31 barn; and the third choice debuted last time out to finish ninth, beaten 15 plus lengths. No thanks. When I handicapped the third race the conditions were for basement level older maiden claimers. As I went through the first eight they were IMMEDIATE NO plays. Just an awful field. But then I came to #9 Pathos. Now she's no Breeders' Cup champion but her last three numbers of 37, 46, and 48 would all win for fun over 68 of the 71 career Beyers of her rivals. And her second start number of 70 would win by a pole. She had run for $25K last time out and was second - she was a clear candidate to improve to her best effort and she ran away as way, WAY too good for these.
While I had originally planned to double the bet, when I saw how much action she was taking not only in the WIN pool but in the multi-race payoffs I upped the wager to a triple investment. Wise choice my friend as I cashed for over $25. In the fifth Madross was first off the claim for Michael Maker with Javier Castellano and I had the suspicion he wouldn't be as good as he looked so I only had the minimum on him. Sent off as the 8/5 favorite he ran third all the way around the track without ever giving hope that he could win. In the 6th Beyond Smart didn't even pick up his feet finishing 9th at 4/1. So now we come to the last bet of the day, the 8th. This was a Maiden Special for older runners going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. As I wrote in my analysis, if it wasn't for the fact that Bokeelia Island was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Shug McGaughey (winning a whopping 44% with jockey Javier Castellano) I probably would have passed the race. But, as I considered my selection I told myself that this is why I get this resource, to uncover bets that I would otherwise not make. Much like Pathos in the third Bokeelia Island was taking a lot of money. And as I watched the live feed both Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling picked him on top. It was of particular interest that Serling did because he next to never picks the favorite. Last time out was the first time Bokeelia Island had tried turf and he'd been flying late to be third, passing half the field, despite a troubled start and rallying into a :50 / 1:16 pace. I contemplated making a change in my bet and decided to double my own bet making him a "BET of the Day" / "prime time" investment. As they moved up the backstretch he was next to last and the pace was a tepid :50 and change. When they hit the turn he STILL was at the back. Looks like I made a bad decision. Finally his chicklet and then he came into the screen and I had a faint hope when Larry Colmus called "Bokeelia Island getting into gear but with a lot of work to do." As they turned for home he was still at the back, and then.....
His rally was Goldikova-esque - and to anyone who knows my racing history you know I refer to the scintillating rally three-time Breeders' Cup Mile champion Goldikova made in the 2010 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs when I was there. Breath-taking. So, ok, Bokeelia Island is no BC runner, but the way he blew by the field like they were all tied to the rail was amazing. AND that I'd upped the bet, what a great story. He paid even money so I was cashing for $40 and so I end the day with 40% winners and a clear profit on the day from just five selections! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
Friday February 5
Very unusual - we had some overnight rains which at Calder would have eliminated all turf races for a month, but at Gulfstream they rarely take races off unless it's actually raining on race day. But on occasion there is enough rain that they will take races off in the early part of the card to give the inner course a little more time to dry. Today however when I checked in for the scratches, changes and early analysis it was announced that of the six turf races, only the eighth would come off. Why would they leave the 4th 7th, 9th and 11th on but take the 8th off? That was a really curious choice I thought. Even more so because the 8th was my "best" of the day! I had only found five selections worthy of investment on the card, so now I'd be down to four. Checked the scratches, my pick in the fourth - OUT, my pick in the 10th - OUT, my pick in the 11th - OUT. WOW, only a single bet? Then I noted that my turf selection for the 8th was still in. What? I looked over her pp's and she had never been on the dirt, but if Chad Brown left her in I'd drop the wager down and make the play. I spent the day handicapping the big Friday card - as well making selections on the stakes-laden Santa Anita card for Saturday. Then at about 4 pm I went on to watch the replay of my pick in the 5th, a Todd Pletcher runner in an allowance spot. Positively Royal was sent off at a fair 2/1. Forged to the front on the turn and stopped - dead last. It was fifteen minutes to post time for the 8th and the analysts were talking about the contenders. The crowd was all over my pick. So, I checked the "Will Pays" for the double and Pick-3 and she was an overwhelming favorite. Apparently handicappers believe that It's Elementary is much the best in here regardless of the surface. So I reconsidered, and just like yesterday, I made the decision to up the wager (actually returning it to it's original triple level). She talked the pace three-wide into the turn and then I could tell by the body language of top rider Javier Castellano, It's Elementary had plenty left for the stretch run. It looked like a real horse race as they spun out of the turn, but when Castellano said GO it was all over.....easy, peasy, pie! WHOOOO HOOOO and for the third consecutive day I was a winner. Man I'm off to a good start in the month of February with SEVEN wins from fourteen selections so far!
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