Happy Valentines Day!
ANOTHER WINNING DAY!
It was a wonderful Valentines Day as Kim and I spent a leisurely day at home together and finished off the day watching several of our favorite television shows this evening. During the day I had originally intended to stay off the computer but the way the day turned out I took advantage of the easy day to write up the long journal chronicling yesterday's glorious adventures. And so, as I sat in my new, ultra-comfortable Serta Office Chair, I had the races on while working online. I passed on the early double set of races and they were both won by huge longshots. In the third I thought Pure Talent SHOULD win as he went first off the claim for Peter Walder and cut his price tag in half. He was the 6/5 post-time favorite and pressed into the far turn then stopped. A 50/1 runner drew off to score. Oh the price players are happy today! In the 4th I thought it came down to one of two favorites, and I couldn't separate them, so I passed - the shorter priced of the two won. I couldn't bet him going for a 1-for-24 barn at even money. In the fifth we were on the turf for a maiden claiming event for sophomores. It was one of the most puzzling situations I've seen here this winter, both before the race and as the horses went to post. Consider these facts.......the two most likely winners were both second-start maidens dropping in class. One came from a barn that wins with 16% of their second-start maidens, the other wins with 28% of their second-time starters; the runner with the 16% barn was dropping out of a $50K spot for today's $35K race while the 28% barn was dropping theirs from a $75K spot. AND, the 28% - $75K dropper had top rider Javier Castellano riding for Chad Brown. OBVIOUSLY the program favorite, right? NO. The 16% barn sent out program favorite Spring Mountain Mist while the Chad Brown filly, 6-Degree of Freedom was 7/2 in the program. Well that would never hold up when handicappers put their money down. Early in the betting I thought my analysis was accurate as Degree of Freedom was the 8/5 favorite. At that time handicapper Andy Serling remarked that he could not bet her at that price and so many bettors apparently jumped ship because surprisingly as they hit the backstretch Spring Mountain Mist was on the lead as the 2/1 post time favorite and she was being tracked by 5/2 third choice Degree of Freedom! I thought it was obvious as they dueled down the backstretch that Spring Mountain Mist was working to hold the lead while Javier Castellano was sitting chilly. Sure enough, they hit the turn and Degree of Freedom glided to the front. When the sprint to the wire began there was no contest as Degree of Freedom drew off as MUCH the best.
I should have invested more than the minimum as the $7 payoff was very generous. In the 6th I thought I had another winner in Indian Splendor. She broke from post 11 in her most recent turf sprint and had been caught late. Today she had post 9 but was the lone speed for trainer Jason Servis who is a GP 40% Club member with all turf sprinters. Right to the front and coasting in mid-stretch, only to see the favorite nail her late.....second. In the 7th I again disagreed with NY-based Andy Serling. I must say, as I've said before, I truly enjoy hitting the winner when he rails against a horse like he did with Bibbo in this maiden claiming turf route for sophomores. He talked about how he didn't run at all when given the chance last time and I thought he'd pressed a legitimate pace against $50K runners last out when checked at the 1/8th pole. The drop in class for Bill Mott made him a logical winner. The crowd let him go off at a generous 2/1 price and he pressed the pace into the turn much like Degree of Freedom had. But when they hit the stretch he had to work to get by the longshot leader and then had to work to hold off a deep closer - PHOTO FINISH!
But I was sure watching it live that I'd won. And the photo proved my observation correct. I'd doubled the bet so the nice $6.80 payoff allowed me to collect nearly $35 on my second winner on the card. I was disappointed with both the 8th and 9th results. I honestly believed I'd win them both. The 8th was a MSW for 3yo and yes, I had the Todd Pletcher runner Privy Council. Went off as the second favorite with Javier Castellano riding. Pressed the favorite, who I did not like, into the stretch and was ready to run by but could not get by, second. Then in the 9th it was a WIDE open turf event and I went with a nice price play in Circus Performer (5/1). He was reserved in the back and when he was ready to run he was behind and between horses, blocked through the stretch until finally at the 16th pole he found a seam and took off like a rocket. Not enough time to get there but he was absolutely flying to get third. I missed on the turf again with a Pletcher maiden 3yo who was a non-threatening 6th while my second choice won easily at even money. At this point in the day it was time for Kim and I to share our Valentine's dinner, a home-cooked pork chops with crab cakes meal so I went away from the computer so we could watch a television program. Technology - you have to love the modern day conveniences we have. The "live feed" from Gulfstream I was watching has a "pause" button so I "stopped" live racing while we ate and watched TV. Then 45 minutes later I came back and let the "live racing" continue. Slid the button forward to post time and watched the featured Miami Shores Handicap. My pick, Stonetastic was my BET of the Day to wire the field. I thought she should be 1/5 in this field, but figured I'd get a better price because of her recent starts. But I could make an excuse for her going all the way back to July 2014. On that afternoon she had romped in an allowance sprint on the Jersey Shore as I stood on the rail at Monmouth Park on Haskell Day. Off of that I bet her as the speed of the race in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga and she wired this field in an upset where I made some nice money. Since then you could forgive all of her fades through the lane......two Breeders' Cup tries - competition too good for her; same can be said when she shipped to California to try the Grade 1 La Brea field. She was a narrow loser in the listed Shine Again Stakes, but that race, like both BC tries & the La Brea were at seven furlongs. Last time out in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl she had her best distance of six furlongs and at the right class level, but she was checked at the break and lost all chance as a front runner. Today she was facing listed company and looked to have no legitimate front runner to deny her. I went ultra-prime time on the wager and smiled when the gates opened and she broke sharply and was in front immediately. A long shot runner, who I've seen before tested her for a quarter mile, but when the half mile split went up in :44 and change she was all alone and coasting. It was a patented Paco Lopez ride as he was looking around for company as his horse cantered into the lane. He shook the reins and she took off to open up by seven widening lengths before he stood up in the irons and let her gallop out while motoring her down to the wire.
WHOOOO HOOOO! My third winner on the day, my BET of the Day seals a winning day of handicapping! For my efforts I'd scored on nearly 40% of my picks and had scored a profit for the day! A special day of racing on tomorrow's President's Day holiday with ALL TWELVE races being a stakes event. Modeled after the Claiming Crown series, every one of the races is a Starter Stakes and there are several runners that I like.....a lot. Headed out for the most favorite. But the national headline is at Santa Anita where undefeated 2yo champion Nyquist begins his 2016 season in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. The connections have said their plan to get to the Kentucky Derby for their Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion is to start in tomorrow's race then ship to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby and then onto Louisville for the Run for the Roses. I'll be betting he keeps his unbeaten record intact and points for an epic showdown with unbeaten Mohaymen on the first Saturday in April here in the $1 Million Grade 1 Florida Derby!
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